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$1/$3 good spot for a river bluff raise?

Opponent: LAG player. We've been playing for a couple hours. He had been raising about ⅓ of his hands, always to $15. Aggressive w/ draws, betting & raising large with them. He would bet pot w/ a draw & size smaller with a made hand.
My image is fairly tight, haven’t played a lot of hands, won a few without having to show anything down.
Effective stacks: $350
Preflop: He opens to $15 UTG. I call in the CO with A Q . HU.
Pot: $30
Flop: 8 7 7 . He bets $30. I call.
Pot: $90
Turn: 5 . We both check.
River: T . He bets $90. I considered shoving as I can't put him on a value hand other than pocket fives for a full house. I think he would have sized smaller OTF and bet the turn with an overpair. I don't think he would take this river sizing with a full house.
Pot: $180
Stack: I have $300 before the call. If I shoved the pot is $480 & it’s $210 for him to call. What do you think?
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Comments

  • Sonny Posts: 390Subscriber
    edited November 2018
    I think in spots like these you ocassionally can be good spots to bluff in but I think it depends on some varibles you might be over looking...
    First off, can your opponent fold a hand? Sure he might be loose preflop and barrel some flops, so at first glance it seems like this isn't a guy I'm trying to bluff. But then again, if he is just ram and jam but folds when he faces resistance it might work. Obviously the best players to bluff are the tighter ones.

    In this instance however I think if you were going to turn your hand into a bluff, I would have started on the turn. When he bets flop and you call, what do you have? An overpair like 99 or 1010, top pair, three 7's, or maybe a draw with 10,9 or 6,5... I do think its very possible he could check a big overpair on the turn after you call this flop. Trip 7's is starring him in the face and after a bet and a call on the flop, most players at this level are not calling with much worse than three 7's. So I think if you start to bet the turn you can rep a bigger hand, and tell a more believable story than if you just bluff all in on the river.
    Now if you did actually have three 7's and he's never folding pocket Queens or whatever here anyway than its a bad bluff.

    But you just have to ask yourself, can your opponent fold? At this level, they have a hard time with that. Yeah lots about the hand doesn't make too much sense with sizing and everything, but on the other hand just ripping it in after youre checking back turn doesn't make much sense for anything other than 10's full. Is your opponent capable of thinking like that? Who knows? He might sigh call with 99 here. I'd say in general however its a bad idea to bluff most players at $1/3, even if you have seen them make tight folds before.
  • dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 2,002Subscriber
    If is opening a third of his hands, why no 3bet preflop, especially in the CO?

    When you get to the river, what value hands do you think he has with this line? It sounds like you really don't think he has any value at all. Is he turning a hand better than yours into a bluff? Like 33? I think you have enough SDV that you can bluff-catch properly if you want to keep him honest, and don't need to bluff-raise. But I probably just let him have it.
  • CycleV Posts: 967Subscriber
    3! pre. Not only b/c of this guy's range, but b/c we don't want this hand going 5 way to a flop, nor would we be happy with someone making a large 3! themselves and forcing us to fold.

    Floating flop is fine if you're going to bet turn. Calling flop is OK-ish if you think you're ahead, so you check turn when you want to get to showdown. But now you think you're behind again and feel the need to bluff? Looks like you got caught between two ideas. Which happens to all of us sometimes, but in moments like this, I remember something I picked up years ago: "When you find yourself in a hole, quit digging."
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