2/5 game playing 9 handed. Most players at the table have a stack of 850+ and I am the short stack at 455.
V2 in this hand is a player I have a ton of experience with. I've stacked him 2x in the past couple weeks and I know (and he knows that I know) that his style is stealing a lot of pots through aggression. He much prefers to be the bettor. In this hand I am 100% certain that he is going to raise and I am also 90% certain he is folding almost his entire raising range to me.
V1 has been at the table 20 minutes, doubled up with set over set and I haven't seen him play a hand since.
The hand is straddled to 15. V1 calls in UTG +1 and I call with AKss in UTG +2. One more caller to V2 who raises to 85. Blinds and straddler fold and V1 thinks about it and calls. I raise to 225 which was the plan going into the hand. V2 tanks and folds (expected) and V1 tanks and calls (unexpected).
Thoughts on this bet sizing? Perhaps I am better shoving here? I thought about that, but think i only get called by better. Without knowing much about V1, I am putting his range at JJ-QQ, AJs-AKs, AKo.
Flop (567 after rake and bbj)) J74 rainbow. V1 instantly shoves. I have 230 left and the pot is almost 800. If I calculate my equity, it seems like this is a call all day. However, what does he instantly shove with? He has to think that I am going to shove the flop. I was quite surprised by this and it put me into an awkward position. If he has JJ, I'm done. If he has AJ, I am drawing super thin. With V's shove, I had a tough time thinking that I was good here often enough to win.
Curious on your thoughts. I'll post the results soon,