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AKs - my plan failed...

Fish Fryer Posts: 161Member
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
2/5 game playing 9 handed. Most players at the table have a stack of 850+ and I am the short stack at 455.

V2 in this hand is a player I have a ton of experience with. I've stacked him 2x in the past couple weeks and I know (and he knows that I know) that his style is stealing a lot of pots through aggression. He much prefers to be the bettor. In this hand I am 100% certain that he is going to raise and I am also 90% certain he is folding almost his entire raising range to me.

V1 has been at the table 20 minutes, doubled up with set over set and I haven't seen him play a hand since.

The hand is straddled to 15. V1 calls in UTG +1 and I call with AKss in UTG +2. One more caller to V2 who raises to 85. Blinds and straddler fold and V1 thinks about it and calls. I raise to 225 which was the plan going into the hand. V2 tanks and folds (expected) and V1 tanks and calls (unexpected).

Thoughts on this bet sizing? Perhaps I am better shoving here? I thought about that, but think i only get called by better. Without knowing much about V1, I am putting his range at JJ-QQ, AJs-AKs, AKo.

Flop (567 after rake and bbj)) J74 rainbow. V1 instantly shoves. I have 230 left and the pot is almost 800. If I calculate my equity, it seems like this is a call all day. However, what does he instantly shove with? He has to think that I am going to shove the flop. I was quite surprised by this and it put me into an awkward position. If he has JJ, I'm done. If he has AJ, I am drawing super thin. With V's shove, I had a tough time thinking that I was good here often enough to win.

Curious on your thoughts. I'll post the results soon,

Zach
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Comments

  • reedmylipsreedmylips Posts: 1,146Subscriber
    Seems like an easy, yet painful, fold to me. If he has a pair, you are drawing to 6 outs twice, unless he has AJ or KK, in which case you are drawing to 3 outs twice. Any sets and you are toast as well. That doesn't seem like enough pot odds to call to me.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    I dont't know this guy but I do see alot of players shove with a pair when they don't see an A or a K. A hand similar to this happened to me last year and after your raise pre you simply cannot fold. I dont care what the flop is you just either call or shove when checked to. If this isn't your plan when you raise then you shouldnt raise or you should three bet a but less. In my hand last year villain did this exact same thing w 88 on a j high board. i snap called getting 4:1 and made runner runner flush w only ak. you should have heard people say what a donk I was. lol.

    that siad if this guy is some super nit who you think is also aware of v2s aggressiveness then its a pretty sick spot. but again if he has AA or KK he is going to let you shove and then call. so aj or qq are likely holdings and you have overs and getting 4:1. call. I think his range vpcan go to pocket pairs say 88 or 99 through TT. jj not in his range he would NOT shove. he wud check call your shove.

    Wendy
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    reedmylips said

    Seems like an easy, yet painful, fold to me. If he has a pair, you are drawing to 6 outs twice, unless he has AJ or KK, in which case you are drawing to 3 outs twice. Any sets and you are toast as well. That doesn't seem like enough pot odds to call to me.
    two overs twice is about 25% this pot is 567 + vshove (230). =797. 230 to call. is 3.5 to 1. you need 28.5% equity. very close but I am calling just to make sure players think I wont fold to shoves. meta game. stuff. nyou just have to call


    Wendy
  • Fish Fryer Posts: 161Member
    wendy weissman said
    reedmylips said

    Seems like an easy, yet painful, fold to me. If he has a pair, you are drawing to 6 outs twice, unless he has AJ or KK, in which case you are drawing to 3 outs twice. Any sets and you are toast as well. That doesn't seem like enough pot odds to call to me.
    two overs twice is about 25% this pot is 567 + vshove (230). =797. 230 to call. is 3.5 to 1. you need 28.5% equity. very close but I am calling just to make sure players think I wont fold to shoves. meta game. stuff. nyou just have to call


    Wendy
    Hi Wendy -

    I don't want to post results/decision yet but IMO the price should be adjusted a bit higher as there is a reasonable chance that the A might not be good, if AJ is in V's range. Although doubtful for the range, KJs puts us in a similar situation. Also, I don't always think it is a bad thing to have opponents think you will fold to a shove. It you get a thinking player that knows you will do that, you can trap with non-vulnerable hands.

    FYI - I was planning to shove the flop until the guy shoved into me. That's where it got interesting Confused
  • reedmylipsreedmylips Posts: 1,146Subscriber
    wendy weissman said
    reedmylips said

    Seems like an easy, yet painful, fold to me. If he has a pair, you are drawing to 6 outs twice, unless he has AJ or KK, in which case you are drawing to 3 outs twice. Any sets and you are toast as well. That doesn't seem like enough pot odds to call to me.
    two overs twice is about 25% this pot is 567 + vshove (230). =797. 230 to call. is 3.5 to 1. you need 28.5% equity. very close but I am calling just to make sure players think I wont fold to shoves. meta game. stuff. nyou just have to call


    Wendy
    Well, in my games, opponents don't instantly shove a J high flop without a pair, since our hand looks like QQ+, so I probably fold. It is close though, as you point out.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    I what I have experienced QQ is pretty likely.. I think the all in play is basically something to get hero to fold his hand. Now this isnt for every player but why if I have the nuts (like JJ ,AA or KK ) would I go all in? Isn't hero pot committed having bet half his stack and a big bet at that?

    If villain doesn't think Hero will ever ever fold then a shove would be a great play with say KK or AA but most players I think would fold which is the reason I think you shouldnt... To me its just a play to GET Hero to fold and any play meant to get someone to fold usually means villain is weak and if villain is weak then AJ would be the worst hand we could see.. QQ would be actually better.

    Bart can chime in here but I would also think that most players are not calling that big a raise with AJ.. so I think QQ is probably the hand we would see.. And if villain flipped over QQ as he went all in I would still call..

    Wendy
  • || I have 230 left and the pot is almost 800 ||

    You really can't put in half your stack preflop and fold the flop. For all intents and purposes you were all in once you made it 225. If you are going to find ways to fold in spots like this, you should just raise all in preflop. I would recommend just getting it all in preflop everytime anyways with these sizings.

    As Bart always says, before you raise think about why you are raising that amount. I'd be curious to hear the range of hands that you think would call 225 and then fold to a less than one-half pot size bet on the flop. The only thing is maybe middle pairs on an Ace or King high flop as Wendy had mentioned, but in this case you are basically always losing when you don't flop a pair(most of the time), and never getting any more money when you do.

    tl;dr Shove preflop with these stack sizes, you aren't deep enough to three-bet fold flop.
  • jeffreyneuman Posts: 19Member
    I don't like the pre flop action in this hand , the limp re raise pre flop to be specific , with a 15$ straddle you have less than a 50BB effective stack to start the hand , if you raise the UTG limp pre flop and get re raised you would have more information about villains hand range , as it is once you limp re raise committing 1/2 your stack there is no way you can fold . There are limited options on the flop because the pot has been bloated pre flop and you have a SPR of less than 1 . Raise your hand for value pre flop and avoid this situation .
  • eselspiel Posts: 115Subscriber
    If you're going to make this pre-flop play with AK, reraise all in. By seeing all the board cards you'll increase your chances of hitting the board to ~50% over the ~33% chance of just hitting the flop.
  • UntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
    I don't think OP was making a huge mistake by putting half his stack in pre-flop. It was the guy who FLATTED that amount who was making a mistake (unless he was trapping with AA). Putting half his stack in pre should be treated as a virtual all-in.

    You're committed already. Might as well call off. Most of the time A or K are still going to be live, and you're getting the right odds to call with those. I think a pair looking for a non-A non-K flop is considerably more likely than AJ, if he called so much pre. If he has JJ, that's only a small part of his range, and it's just unlucky.
  • You can't put in 50% of your stack and fold now on the flop. This screams to me like a pair, and I just dont see guys open shoving sets in this spot with the stacks so small.

    I disagree with most here and think that the sizing preflop is fine (although I dont like limp reraising). It really should add more fold equity than a limp shove all in as I think a limp shove screams like AK. With that being said no one should flat your raise unless they are trapping with AA. But you cant fold now.

    Bart
  • Zach Z-H said
    wendy weissman said
    reedmylips said

    Seems like an easy, yet painful, fold to me. If he has a pair, you are drawing to 6 outs twice, unless he has AJ or KK, in which case you are drawing to 3 outs twice. Any sets and you are toast as well. That doesn't seem like enough pot odds to call to me.
    two overs twice is about 25% this pot is 567 + vshove (230). =797. 230 to call. is 3.5 to 1. you need 28.5% equity. very close but I am calling just to make sure players think I wont fold to shoves. meta game. stuff. nyou just have to call


    Wendy
    Hi Wendy -

    I don't want to post results/decision yet but IMO the price should be adjusted a bit higher as there is a reasonable chance that the A might not be good, if AJ is in V's range. Although doubtful for the range, KJs puts us in a similar situation. Also, I don't always think it is a bad thing to have opponents think you will fold to a shove. It you get a thinking player that knows you will do that, you can trap with non-vulnerable hands.

    FYI - I was planning to shove the flop until the guy shoved into me. That's where it got interesting Confused
    Wendy,

    This is one of the most common math mistakes I see in calculating pot odds. I always use this simple chart:

    1-1--- 50%
    2-1---33%
    3-1---25%
    4-1--20%

    Looks like here you have divided 1 into 3.5 (which is 2.5-1) instead of 1 into 4.5. Equity needed here is actually 22.2%

    Bart
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    Bart

    You are correct,,, I divided the 3.5 to the 1... So dumb, I know this.. my explanation was backward.. Thanks for clarifying...

    Wendy
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    Bart said

    You can't put in 50% of your stack and fold now on the flop. This screams to me like a pair, and I just dont see guys open shoving sets in this spot with the stacks so small.

    I disagree with most here and think that the sizing preflop is fine (although I dont like limp reraising). It really should add more fold equity than a limp shove all in as I think a limp shove screams like AK. With that being said no one should flat your raise unless they are trapping with AA. But you cant fold now.

    Bart
    At least you agree with my range analysis. Bart, how often do you think villain has AA and was slowplaying pre and donks out on the flop?

    Wendy
  • Fish Fryer Posts: 161Member
    Sorry for the delay in posting results. I thought that I had posted them, but alas..... old age is starting to kick in.

    I called the shove by the V assuming I needed a K or A to win. The board blanked out and V showed me KJs, so I was drawing much thinner than I thought. I was a bit surprised at the call, but it makes the games great...
  • wendy weissman said
    Bart said

    You can't put in 50% of your stack and fold now on the flop. This screams to me like a pair, and I just dont see guys open shoving sets in this spot with the stacks so small.

    I disagree with most here and think that the sizing preflop is fine (although I dont like limp reraising). It really should add more fold equity than a limp shove all in as I think a limp shove screams like AK. With that being said no one should flat your raise unless they are trapping with AA. But you cant fold now.

    Bart
    At least you agree with my range analysis. Bart, how often do you think villain has AA and was slowplaying pre and donks out on the flop?

    Wendy
    Pretty much never :)
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    Zach Z-H said

    Sorry for the delay in posting results. I thought that I had posted them, but alas..... old age is starting to kick in.

    I called the shove by the V assuming I needed a K or A to win. The board blanked out and V showed me KJs, so I was drawing much thinner than I thought. I was a bit surprised at the call, but it makes the games great...
    Zach

    Did you have some super laggy image? Or was this guy just a super donk!. That is such a bad call preflop you just have to love this guy in the game. I am so sorry for the cooler.. I can totally relate..

    This brings up another question for the group. Was Zach's back raise considered total bs? Bart has talked about how this is supposed to be super strong.. but preflop if you flat then reraise I see so many players with dominating hands/trouble hands call because they think you are making a play..

    Last night I back raised pre with 99 against a straddler who raised to 15 in a 2/3 game with 4 callers.. I reraised him knowing he couldnt have a big hand.. got him to shove with 88.. too bad his set hit turn.. Do these players just don't get it? If they don't get it and they will call should our range be that much stronger? ie.. do we sometime have to play DOWN to the level of our opponents to not get into sticky situations.

    Maybe AK is a hand we play straight up for value and AA or KK we get tricky on?

    great thread Zach!

    Wendy
  • Fish Fryer Posts: 161Member
    wendy weissman said
    Zach Z-H said

    Sorry for the delay in posting results. I thought that I had posted them, but alas..... old age is starting to kick in.

    I called the shove by the V assuming I needed a K or A to win. The board blanked out and V showed me KJs, so I was drawing much thinner than I thought. I was a bit surprised at the call, but it makes the games great...
    Zach

    Did you have some super laggy image? Or was this guy just a super donk!. That is such a bad call preflop you just have to love this guy in the game. I am so sorry for the cooler.. I can totally relate..

    This brings up another question for the group. Was Zach's back raise considered total bs? Bart has talked about how this is supposed to be super strong.. but preflop if you flat then reraise I see so many players with dominating hands/trouble hands call because they think you are making a play..

    Last night I back raised pre with 99 against a straddler who raised to 15 in a 2/3 game with 4 callers.. I reraised him knowing he couldnt have a big hand.. got him to shove with 88.. too bad his set hit turn.. Do these players just don't get it? If they don't get it and they will call should our range be that much stronger? ie.. do we sometime have to play DOWN to the level of our opponents to not get into sticky situations.

    Maybe AK is a hand we play straight up for value and AA or KK we get tricky on?

    great thread Zach!

    Wendy
    Hi Wendy -

    In my opinion AA and/or KK is never really a hand that should be played with the intention of doing something tricky barring a V that you know will do something (button raise, etc...). My experience is that with either of those hands, it seems that whenever the bulk of the money goes in the middle at a point that is not preflop, you are often in trouble. I of course take the bet, bet, bet approach until V shows me a reason not to do that. I think the adage that you either win little pots or lose huge pots with AA is more true than people realize, barring situations where the money gets in preflop. Knowing that, I try to do everything I can to build a huge pot preflop with those hands. I HATE playing a limped pot with AA or KK because I tried to be sneaky.

    BTW - the guy was a super donk. I didn't know that at the time as he hadn't been at the table that long. Of course, he felted me on another hand when we both flopped sets and my quads failed to get there.....
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    Zach

    I didn't mean limp with AA or KK in ep.. I meant limp with AA or KK in this situation with a guy who likes to three bet light and he is on your left. then lots of callers for dead money and now you back raise and players like your Villain just think you are full of shit but you are sitting with the nuts..

    I haven't really had a situation like this recently to try it but I think there is value if you believe a player is willing to call 255 bucks with KJ because its a "good hand"

    I haven't limped in ep with AA or KK in years.. I think all that happens is that you telegraph your hand strength .

    With all of this I do trap a bit with big pocket pairs by not three betting preflop. I will do this against tighter players that would almost 100% fold to my reraise. I have stacked many a player recently by doing this. Here is the basic scenario.

    I am in earlier position to them I raise normal to x.. they have position on me and they three bet.. everyone else folds and we are heads up. I call. Since I have been playing the smaller games this is usually at most 100bbs.. flop comes xyz and they cbet and I either call or check raise depending on the flop and villains stack size..

    I am willing to take a little risk by getting a bad flop to stack the player that otherwise would fold to my three bet.. This I hope will allow me to make a little more than a small pot or lose a big pot..

    Wendy
  • SkinnybrownSkinnybrown Posts: 286Member
    I like limp re-raising to $400 pre flop.

    As played. Call. You have the correct equity.
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