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2/3, Hero defend at MDF? Exploitable fold? V x-r after x twice on wet board

2/3 300-Max-Bet, 6 handed,
Hero K J UTG 13,
V1 (tight reg, 475 eff) flat BTN,
V2 (unknown, seems rec, 365) SB 3B! 25,
Hero and V1 call,
F(71): T 4 5
V2 x, Hero x, V1 x,
T(71): T 4 5 K
V2 x, Hero 40, V1 fold, V2 quickly x-r 140, Hero ?

- V2's line is very suspicious, yet it's hard to give a seemingly average 2/3 player credit for being capable of bluffing here. V2 is unknown who recently sat down, but seems rec and seems ABC.

- I’ve seen recs take this line with AK (and even maybe KQ).

Let's be clear about MDF. Janda (p.159) says,
'...the "minimum defense frequency." That is, determining the minimum amount they must defend against a bet or a raise before knowing with certainty that their opponent can't exploit them.'
MDF applies in this situation because our opponent is making a raise.
Janda says (p. 159),
'Now what confuses many players is you only have a minimum defense frequency in certain spots. The first spot is whenever your opponent is raising. That's because if your opponent could profitably raise with any two cards, he'd never fold.'
With his turn x-r, V2 is risking 140 to win 111. He is laying about 1.2-1, so the odds against our folding to satisfy MDF should be ~45.5%. In other words, we have to continue with at least ~45.5% of our range to be certain V2 can't exploit us with the x-r. Given our line, KJ must be in the top ~45.5% of our range.

Now, MDF clearly applies to this spot (because V2 is raising). However, the pot is a multiway 3-bet pot, and V2 seems like the type of opponent to usually “have it” in this spot. So even though we must defend KJ here to defend at MDF, shouldn't we make the exploitative deviation to over-fold, because most opponents at this level are unlikely to be bluffing nearly often enough in this situation to exploit us? Or, should we call because our hand must be defended to satisfy MDF and the opponent is a virtual unknown? @Bart @KiLee @ConlanMA, @-everyone, thanks for your help!

- Janda, Matthew (2017) “No Limit Hold’em for Advanced Players: Emphasis on Tough Games”


  • KiLeeKiLee Posts: 250Pro

    I'll start by saying that KJo is a pretty loose open from UTG, even in a soft passive game. The usual UTG open is AQo+ for offsuit broadways. For soft passive game, I'd expand it to KQo and AJo, but KJo seems a bit adventurous.

    As far as MDF is concerned - you seems to understand the idea behind it, but the application is WAY different from theory here in my opinion. We need to be aware of MDF so that Villains wont be able to raise with any 2 cards and profit. This assumes that the V is capable of bluffing to begin with(rare at the lower levels) AND that he is able to recognize us overfolding and exploit us by over-bluffing(far-fetched at 1/2, to say the least). When the V has very very low bluffing frequency, MDF doesn't really matter - imagine that you have the third nut-flush on 4 flushing board. If you bet and the V shoves, and he's giving himself X price, non of this really matters. You generally cannot call vs 99% of live players here in mid level or below. Nobody really bluffs here. Mathematically he might have value:bluff ratio of like 99:1. We can never get enough of a price to call. This is an extreme example, but in MANY spots, value:bluff ratio is outlandishly unbalanced to value that MDF often doesn't really apply. It does apply when you can assess accurately that the villain CAN have a robust bluffing range in a given spot.
  • Maximilian65 Posts: 34Subscriber
    edited December 2018
    Agree 1000% with Ki here. I'm just a sub, but it's very clear to me that your thinking is way too advanced for the game you are playing in. In a 2/3 $300 max bet game, Villian is doing nothing more than playing the strength of his own hand. You got yourself into a spot here by opening KJoff pre from UTG, and the problems compounded as the hand progressed. The worst hand I'm giving V in the SB in this hand is an AK.
  • Chase Posts: 99Subscriber
    @KiLee , @Maximilian65 , thanks for your responses! This would be a loose UTG open in a full game. We were playing 6 handed, so this was equivalent to LJ position.
    by 1KiLee
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,290Subscriber
    Because you are the raiser I have often seen people X in this spot when the King hits assuming that you have AK and you are going to bet. So they go with a XR for value. If you called an UTG raise and they X twice then XRed the turn like this then it is a different story and I would weigh more a double draw.

    This can be a set or a hand like K4s.

    The kind hits YOUR range not his.
  • hustlin Posts: 260Subscriber
    MDF is great when playing tough sound opponents. Once with good value and bluffs in their range. I use it when fancing aggressive opponents who bet / raise a lot.

    This is Live L O L poker. So you can just play your hand ABC. Most part people play quite face up.

    KJo is just not doing very well in this spot.
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