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I Was Going To Backraise but got overshipped on

Amicus Posts: 186Subscriber
edited December 5 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
2/5
V1 $140 effective
V2 covers all
Hero $1200 effective

V1 is a fish
V2 is a pro who is competent but more aggro than theoretically optimal
Hero is an unknown TAG-like player who probably doesn't get too much credit for being too sophisticated

V1 opens to 15 from UTG
V2 3bets to 60 from UTG+2

V1's range can be pretty much anything, and V2's range is something that he would want to get all-in against a $140 stack with

Hero has AKhh and flats the 60

Hero could just 4bet here, but I decide to play it fancy, because I like taking lines that are tilting to play against and inflict maximum pain. I'd rather flat and have the opportunity 6bet than just 4bet.

The logic here was that if V1 decided to go all in, then:
V2 was going to 5bet way too wide to isolate the fish, using the false assumption that my 60 was dead money
And if he 5bet against the fish's all-in, I was going to backraise him and go over the top with AKs to potentially re-blow him off whatever he had and pick up extra money from whatever he raised to in an attempt to isolate his range. And if I got it in, AKs definitely isn't in bad shape against his range

For example, if V1 shipped for $140 and V2 made it 400 to isolate V1, then I can go all-in on top to hake V2 hate life if he has TT

But after V1 ships $140, V2 also went all-in. With such an overbet, I doubt it's AA or KK, but it still seems like it might be unnecessary variance to get it in here. Is this a call anyway, though we're not really getting that great of a price and it's a flip most of the time?

*Footnote: If I had AA, I would 100% flat the 60 in this spot in hopes of something like this happening. That's why I don't consider it a great strategy to isolate the all-in player when there's somebody competent also in the hand.

Comments

  • JLBJ Posts: 86Subscriber
    You played the hand so that this would happen, and on top of that, you think it’s unlikely that he has the only two hands that crush you.

    Plus, you describe V2 as more aggro than theoretically optimal. You sure he couldn’t have AQ or AJs here and is trying to blow you off a medium pair, which is what your hand looks like when you flat?

    You may very well be flipping for $2,500, but it’s a pretty easy call given how the hand was played.
  • Amicus Posts: 186Subscriber
    edited December 5
    JLBJ said:
    You played the hand so that this would happen, and on top of that, you think it’s unlikely that he has the only two hands that crush you.

    Plus, you describe V2 as more aggro than theoretically optimal. You sure he couldn’t have AQ or AJs here and is trying to blow you off a medium pair, which is what your hand looks like when you flat?

    You may very well be flipping for $2,500, but it’s a pretty easy call given how the hand was played.
    I played this hand this way because I wanted to get the last bet in, not to call it off after only putting 60 in the pot and think I was getting a great deal. If he shipped before I got to, I couldn't get the last bet in, which is why this hand was posted.

    I also technically only put 5% of the effective stack in the pot so far.
  • Beatsme Posts: 554Subscriber
    I think you have enough equity to call here given the price you are getting (this is my first reaction.. I haven't crunched the numbers). Esp if you think the villain is "overly aggressive" as you said in your op. I mean I agree with JLBL would it really surprise you if the pro showed up with AQo or AJs?

    You just have to know yourself and your situation... its a high variant spot for sure. Are you adequately rolled to take this spot? if you gamble and loose can you still play your A game? If not you should just pass on this spot. If you can flip and loose and still be ok with it than I think the right play is to call.
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,264Subscriber
    Too much to Stack off. When you weigh his whole range, card removal from shorty vs putting that much in it should be a fold. Don't give your pro too much credit when he overplayed shoves like this.

    I think you are flipping here on average.

    I'd 3b preflop.
  • workinghard Posts: 1,501Subscriber
    There are a lot of Ax hands V2 can have. Plus Medium pairs. Your range for calling should be AKo+ and probably QQ+. Maybe JJ+. Because the pot is so big, it's more important that you don't back down from the best play possible. Yah, it might be high variance but crushing these spots is where the money is.
  • Superfly Posts: 67Subscriber
    I think something like JJ/TT is more likely for V2 than AQ/AJ. And if V1 has a big A like AQ or even if he has a pair, you’re down to 36% equity. Fold
    by 1Clock
  • Xboblove Posts: 5Member
    edited December 6
    I sort of agree with Superfly with one caveat. I want to know what hands the fish has been shipping in the game. V1 doesn't have enough money to do anything other than to be a spoiler. His shove puts 420 in the center if you continue against your remaining stack of 1160. This puts you in 3SPR territory and a very serious call spot in spite of clues to the contrary.

    If Fly's equity math is correct, this is a borderline call/fold spot dependent on the fish's as played holdings. It's close against the range.
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,264Subscriber
    If the shover was $500 or $400 then it's fine to call as now he can be shoving a wider range but over $1000?
  • Sonny Posts: 298Subscriber
    edited December 6
    Are we ever getting it in as a favorite here? Does V2 have AQ, AJ, KQ here hardly ever? Probably not. Even if he has 88 or whatever its not great. Best case we're 52/48 and that is still an underdog. I guess the extra $140 negates the 2% however its very possible that V1 probably has a card you need.
    Whenever I see guys get into these spots and call, I wonder why not just bet the $1200 on a hand of Blackjack? If you can find a table with good rules and play perfect strategy, its roughly the same odds... But we don't, we play poker because we feel that we can out think and out play our opponents.
    I would argue that these spots are not what seperates a crusher from a decent winner. Thin value is what gets you to crusher status, not luck boxing flips... Flipping (or possibly getting it in as a massive dog) for $1.2k in $2/5 seems pretty unnecessary.

    With all that being said... I'd probably call because I'm a degen. But when I get to the end of the month and look at my numbers I usually highly regret taking these spots.
  • hustlin Posts: 182Subscriber
    Snap calling here.

    Got overlay w the dead fish money. + your hand is underrepresented
    .
    AKs is amazing.
    If we got AKo mauve u can nit fold.
  • Amicus Posts: 186Subscriber
    edited December 6
    I estimate the fish's range to be pretty much any reasonably playable hand. He wasn't opening ridiculously wide, but he might have been kind of tilted and decide to go with whatever he was opening, whether it was 87s or A5s or 33

    As for AKs vs AKo, for all-in pre, I don't consider AKs significantly better because all-in pre is more about domination than playability. It's just a bonus extra 3% equity or so. For post-flop playability, I consider AKs quite a bit better of a hand.

    I would consider AKo only marginally worse than AKs to get all-in pre, but I would consider AQs miles worse than AKo. This is because with AK, suited or offsuit, you have blockers to the hands that have you crushed, and are flipping with QQ. Whereas with AQs, you are crushed by any AK have no blockers to KK, and are also much worse than flipping against QQ. If I were valuing hands in terms of post-flop playability, I would value AQs and AKo much closer but that isn't the case here.
  • High__Rolla Posts: 731Subscriber
    I like your line of thinking with the flat of the pro, but I think calling off when he unexpectedly ships is unprofitable. Let's give V1 a top 20% range and V2 a range of AK, AQs, JJ+, and calculate the EV of calling the ship:


    Main pot EV = 33.4% (340) - 66.6% (80)

    Main pot EV = +$60.28

    Side pot EV = 45.9% (1060) - 54.1% (1060)

    Side pot EV = - $86.92

    Total EV = -$26.64

    So, it is negative EV to call off here unless the V2 is much wider than AQs. The EV of the large side pot dominates, so we really need V2 to have more non-pair hands to make this profitable.
  • Superfly Posts: 67Subscriber
    You need to call $1140 to win $1400 (your $60, V1 $140, and V2 $1200). That’s 1.2: 1 pot odds. You need 45% equity. If you assume at least one V has a pair, it doesn’t even matter what the other has, you’re not getting the rightt odds. And if he has some of your outs, it’s even worse.
  • High__Rolla Posts: 731Subscriber
    @Superfly - the equity you need to call will be different in the main pot versus the side pot. You have to break it apart to calculate. See my post above.
  • JLBJ Posts: 86Subscriber
    it all comes down to your read of V2. If he’s truly an overaggressive pro, he might shove wider than AK+, JJ+ if he thinks you are calling with mid pairs or some other marginal hand and he wants to blow you out of the pot.

    Also, would he really play AA this way? Can we remove those combos from the equity calculation? I could see KK, but even that seems a little unlikely.

    And the main question is, what is he doing with AQ?

    My instinct to call was based on our underrepped hand and V2 being capable of shoving AQ and maybe even AJs while not making this play with AA and maybe not with KK.

    Maybe he’s more aware that those assumptions make and is shoving a tighter range.

    Bottom line, if you’re going to be sick if he turns over QQ and you lose the flip and it’s going to affect you going forward, then just fold. It’s not a fist-pump, “I got him” spot.
  • Superfly Posts: 67Subscriber
    edited December 6
    Oh, now I see what you guys are saying. V1 is only eligible for the $420 main pot. We’re heads up vs V2 for $2,120 side pot and getting 1:1 pot odds. That does change things. V2 needs to have AQ and some AJ in his range for us to have greater than 50% equity heads up. If he just has AK and TT+, we’re not getting 1:1 odds on the side pot.
  • Superfly Posts: 67Subscriber
    But if we give ourselves some equity for the main pot, too, then I guess we have the odds to call even if V2 has AK and TT+. If you want to flip for stacks, that is.
  • Amicus Posts: 186Subscriber
    edited December 7
    I think this was probably a call, based on my initial assessment that V2 would be way too aggressive with way too wide of a range if I flatted the 60. The times we're flipping (or technically, slightly behind because of card removal from V!'s range) that I don't really think are worth it are made up for by the times he has something that AK dominates. It's still not a jump for joy to call, but should be +EV enough.

    If 1200 were 3% or less of my bankroll, I call 100%. If it's 3-6%, I call or fold depending on my mental state that day. And more than 6% I can justify sometimes passing up slightly +EV huge variance spots

    If V2 were good and aggressive but on the more solid side, it definitely would have been a fold.

    With that being said, I folded because I'm a broke degen and I would have had to go home if I lost.

    Results were:
    V1 had QTs
    V2 had AQo
    A on flop, so V2 would have been drawing almost dead against my hand
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,264Subscriber
    That's really rare he overplays overships AQ like that. If this was $500 deep call like I said. By chance this specific villain overplayed this hand. Doesn't mean mathematically it is correct to stack off. So don't beat yourself up on it.

    Once I folded an overpair in a very similar situation..... A shorty had raised my large flop bet all in and a 3rd player back XRAI on a J73r board. His back ship was enormous ~210bbs...... I hadn't invested much in the hand so far. I folded and the back raised had T5o. No that's not a typo. He was drawing dead to the short stack. I just sat there perplexed.

    Shit happens. I do see so many players overplaying their big pairs in this spot for 200bbs like here. So that AQo is weighted down in combos. But now you know about this player.

    We don't have much information in 3b pots live. Online I am sure if you had 10,000 hands on this guy this call would be automatic due to his stats. But live....
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