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$5-10-20 What do I call here with?

BartBart Posts: 5,897AdministratorLeadPro
edited December 2018 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
HP, 11PM $5-$10-$20, $3k effective. Villain is a pretty large winning player and plays nights. Blinds are bad players, Straddle (mandatory 3rd blind) another big winning player. Hero has a pretty tight image as the table is not great, the two in the blinds being 2/3 spots the rest of us profit players.

Hero is dealt XX from UTG and opens to $75. V1 calls button. Sb and BB call, Straddle calls.

$375 FLOP: T 9 3

c/c/c Hero bets $160, button calls all fold.

$695 TURN: K Hero checks, button bets $600, Hero calls.

$1895 RIVER: A Hero checks, button thinks for a long time and moves all-in, a little over $2200..

What hands should Hero call with?
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Comments

  • Superfly Posts: 263Subscriber
    @bart, This is a difficult question because while flop hits V, runout favors H. Despite that, V continues to bet aggressively on turn and river. Your description of the V appears to eliminate simple spews. So it’s hard to put him on much worse than nut straight (QJ) and flopped sets (TT, 99). Doubt JJ -AA or AK is in his range given his failure to iso pre. and I can’t see any likely 2P combos for V given the action. So I would probably call down with AA, KK and TT, but fold even 99 and top two??
  • squishmytomatosquishmytomato Posts: 351SubscriberProfessional
    edited December 2018
    given that the bottom of his value range is 33 and given that’s he’s raising 99/33 most of time on flop and flatting tt, i would call pretty linearly here.

    if you have aa/kk/tt:
    lose to 4 qjs

    if you have 99:
    lose to 4 qjs, 3 tt

    if you have qq:
    lose to 2 qjs, 3 tt, 1 99, 1 33.

    if you have at:
    lose to 4 qjs, 1 tt, 1 99, 1 33.

    so blocking the straight isn’t as good as just beating most of his value here. id call pretty linearly. given the runout this spot is way underbluffed in live poker even by good players.

    in order of what i’d call with:
    aa/kk/tt all the time
    99/qq sometimes
    at/33 fold
  • Xboblove Posts: 120Member
    edited December 2018
    If hero is UTG, where is the straddle?

    Notwithstanding that, given villain calls with lots the flop with lots of action behind, his range polarized to straight draw , two pair and sets.

    On the river the bad players card removal includes an Ace and one or two Broadway affirming villians polar range but biasing him toward the draw part of his range into the river and the big bet just merged the range on the runout.

    The question in my mind is what bluffs are left? J8, blocked AJ, AQ and single paired double broadway (all blocked on runout and removal assumptions)?Villain to be balanced would otherwise have to have turned the bottom of the range into a bluff making us call with top top plus to not be exploited.

    Using MDF (in my head) I'd guess we'd need to be defending 40% so middle two+.

    Since I <3 fold errors, i'm at middle set+
  • Amicus Posts: 190Subscriber
    I think that he might think that you have Tx or QQ or JJ and be trying to get you off those hands, and he thinks your range is somewhat capped because you didn't bet or C/R the turn

    This is an especially difficult spot because he thinks that your range is somewhat capped, and we don't know how thinly he's value betting. And blah, I probably tend to fold too much in these spots but I like to either re-bluff or fold to good players rather than paying off their thin value bets.

    Step 1:
    Let's assume that he didn't float the flop too light multi-way. Then, what's his range for calling the flop?

    Step 2:
    What percentage of the time is he betting turn if we check turn? Probably a fairly large percentage. Let's give it approximately 75% of his flop calling range

    Step 3:
    What percentage of the time is he triple barreling on the river?
  • 3BBRC Posts: 3Subscriber
    Bart are you checking entire range on turn or are you continuing to bet 99 TT and KK?
  • kaboojiekaboojie Posts: 360Subscriber
    edited December 2018
    I think the range that Hero cbets on this board then check/calls the turn will be pretty narrow. I don't think the flopped sets should check the turn hu. We don't want V to get a free card or have a scary 1 liner card come that kills our action. I think the same applies hu with AA and KK. These hands should continue barreling at a pretty high frequency.

    The best combos to take this line with are QJs, ATs, QQ and JJ. Of these lines:

    1) QJs (obviously) is a call.

    2) ATs should be called most of the time. (I might fold vs a complete nit, but given your description of V and assuming he has bluffs in his range, this is a call)

    3) QQ and JJ are interesting as they heavily block the nutted combos V can have. That said, calling here vs a winning reg/pro facing an overbet is tough. If we think V is purely polarized to nuts or air, I think it's close. If V can have other value hands here other than the nuts, which I think he can, then I lean towards folding these hands.

    To summarize, I am calling with ATs or QJs. I would also call with sets, but I just dont think I get here with sets after I check the turn.
  • BartBart Posts: 5,897AdministratorLeadPro
    I will be discussing this hand on the podcast this week..

    Spoiler:
    HEro had AA and check called the river all-in. V1 had Qs Js
  • CountRoblivionCountRoblivion Posts: 54Member
    Seems like a spot where you can find a lot of folds. The runout favors hero's range immensely (don't know about you, but against an aggressive player on a rainbow board I have all the QJs on the river), but V still decides to overbet jam the river. Probably only calling QJs, AA, KK.
  • Superfly Posts: 263Subscriber
    edited December 2018
    Reveal makes total sense. This almost seemed like a made-up hand because it was so extreme you could literally reduce both H and V ranges to one or two hands. I play regularly with pros and I don’t know many that are truly playing poker as their main source of income who would bluff shove with air on river. They generally look for better, lower-risk bluff spots against exploitable recs. That said, I couldnt fold H’s hand either, and you’re probably not supposed to. Look forward to hearing your analysis on podcast.
  • maphacks Posts: 2,008Subscriber
    Would be good to know if villain calls QJo pre in that configuration (I think it's pretty close with two spots in the blinds).

    Without that info, I will only call sets or better. I think checking close to 100% OTT is good.
  • maphacks Posts: 2,008Subscriber
    Ps: from my experience, even most good regs fail to bluff enough Tx here (I acknowledge it might already be a fold OTF). So I wonder if we should ever call hands that don't beat parts if villains valuerange like 33.
    Anyways, as always, huge guessing game what's the correct play here 5ways. The two fish fuck up the whole spot because vs them we can cbet pretty liberally but once the reg calls he has a pretty strong valuehand or a good draw. For example calling Tx seems close to me.
  • BartBart Posts: 5,897AdministratorLeadPro
    maphacks said:
    Ps: from my experience, even most good regs fail to bluff enough Tx here (I acknowledge it might already be a fold OTF). So I wonder if we should ever call hands that don't beat parts if villains valuerange like 33.
    Anyways, as always, huge guessing game what's the correct play here 5ways. The two fish fuck up the whole spot because vs them we can cbet pretty liberally but once the reg calls he has a pretty strong valuehand or a good draw. For example calling Tx seems close to me.
    Yeah button having a hand like QT or JTs, I guess could plan on running a two street huge barrel in position when HU. Not sure if that is reality though. Also I wonder if my hand with AA is ever a check fold to close to pot sizing. Bart
  • BartBart Posts: 5,897AdministratorLeadPro
    edited December 2018
    Superfly said:
    Reveal makes total sense. This almost seemed like a made-up hand because it was so extreme you could literally reduce both H and V ranges to one or two hands. I play regularly with pros and I don’t know many that are truly playing poker as their main source of income who would bluff shove with air on river. They generally look for better, lower-risk bluff spots against exploitable recs. That said, I couldnt fold H’s hand either, and you’re probably not supposed to. Look forward to hearing your analysis on podcast.
    If you go to HP on your trip to LA.. Villain is a night time reg/pro who always wears a vikings hat.. Adam, from Minnesota.
  • Superfly Posts: 263Subscriber
    @bart, I’ll look for him (and be sure to fold to any of his huge river bets).
  • fishcake Posts: 952Subscriber
    Why isn't this hand just a fold on the turn? Villain is betting huge and I believe recognizes we have a static range. He called an UTG raise first in preflop. We don't beat KTs, TT, 99, 33, QJs, T9s on the turn. And what bluffs can villain have? 87s? Turning a random Ten like JTs or QTs into a bluff? That's about it. Even if we given him ALL of those bluffs which is crazy, that's only 10 combos against a lot more value hands. Finally, we have to realize villain is likely shoving very close to 100% of the time on the river, so we're calling turn to call river sometimes? Like, we call with Aces and hope for what? An ace? And then still lose sometimes. I think you can pitch turn.

    As played, call with TT, KK, AA. Probably fold the rest.
  • Oback2 Posts: 204Subscriber
    ^ is that a troll?
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