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$1/$3 - how to play combo draw from SB in MW limped pot

$1/$3 NLHE, $300 cap.
Villain has about $175 in EP. Very loose pre, straight forward post flop.
Hero is in SB w/ $800. Has 5 4. There are 4 limpers & the blinds.
Flop is 9 6 3.
Checked to villain who bets $10. CO calls. I thought about it for a bit & decided to check raise to $45. I think I can get single paired hands & other draws to fold. Do you think this is a good spot to CR? Would you play it differently? As I type this I wonder if I should have sized it larger?
As played, the villain calls & the CO folds. We are now heads up.
Turn: 8.
Pot is $115 and he has about $125 left. I think he probably would have reraised with a set so I put him on a 9 or a flush draw. I decided to shove. How would you have played the turn?

Comments

  • Xboblove Posts: 120Member
    edited December 2018
    Hero doesn't have top draw, he has something less.

    1) Playing this hand is a small mistake, it's really bottom feeding.
    2) Limping behind is also the worst way to play it

    A) Why would single pairs fold? Hero limped the blind, no big pair would do that. This is polarized bet sizing. You have it or you don't.
    A1) C/R is how monster draws are supposed to be played (optimally)
    B) Why would draws fold? Bloated pots encourage chasing. C/R is fine, size is fine, hero's mindset is wrong.

    While most players at this level would not know this your bet is committing and if he had any serious hand or draw, he should have just put it in on a 4 bet shove.If anything your flop bet is way too big.

    As played, I check call the turn probably, if he jams, i'd call. If he has the 7 it's not likely he has a flush. If he has the flush draw, we're live to OESD. If he has 2 pair, we have the world.


  • JLBJ Posts: 158Subscriber
    He’s a little too shallow to take this line, I think. After he calls the 45, I’d be surprised if he folded to the turn jam.

    I would just call the flop and try to make my hand at this stack depth.
  • 292YBlock Posts: 94Subscriber
    I’m folding pre-flop (15,25,35) esp. in early position. I’d just lead the flop, probaly for 2/3 pot or even pot. If called, I'm betting the turn as well, again maybe 2/3 pot or pot. If called again, and I miss the river I'm just checking. This is a great example of why these hands are so hard to play in EP even when you flop well. Others may disagree, but as limped that's how I'd play it.
  • irwinbetirwinbet Posts: 383Subscriber
    For those saying fold pre, perhaps my post was unclear. This hand was not raised pre. There are 4 limpers & I am in the SB with 54 suited. I think completing from the SB with a hand like this is standard. I am getting 8:1 in immediate odds & everyone has at least $100 so the 15, 25, 35 rule is not an issue either.
    by 1BTPoker
  • 292YBlock Posts: 94Subscriber
    You're correct, you are technically getting 25 X to call, but I still raise or fold, and mostly fold., if you hit a draw it's hard to play OOP, especially multi-way. I don't think calling is terrible, just be aware of the difficulty playing the draw post flop OOP. Just my opinion, everyone plays the game a little differently.
  • Xboblove Posts: 120Member
    Ditto to 292yblock
  • irwinbetirwinbet Posts: 383Subscriber
    @Bart can I please get your opinion on this hand? thank you.
  • BartBart Posts: 5,828AdministratorLeadPro
    Yeah I have no idea what people are talking about folding 45 here as a complete in the sb. If it was raised, sure fold, but the pot is limped.

    I like the idea of trying to add max fold equity with a check raise. These stacks are definitely a bit awkward however. With a pot size bet left shoving now really can't be that bad (whereas w deeper stacks maybe you check this turn). If you can get a higher flush draw to fold you are printing and you are 33% vs any other hand. I don't think you can check fold do to the equity in your hand. If you had something less than a 15 out draw I wouldn't mind checking and possibly folding to a shove but here your hand is too big. Bart
  • irwinbetirwinbet Posts: 383Subscriber
    Spoiler:
    After I shoved he tanked for a few minutes, starting counting his outs out loud. He said something about having 16 outs, so I knew he had a combo draw. Eventually he called. River was the Q but he had A 7 & I lost. At the time I wondered if I was too aggro or spewy going for fold equity at this level but later felt like I played it right given that I nearly got a better hand with a better draw to fold. I think he would have folded had he not picked up equity OTT.

    Thank you for taking the time to review it & post a response.
  • Xboblove Posts: 120Member
    edited December 2018
    A long time ago, someone did an analysis on 54 and the conclusion of this was this hand has significantly less EV relative to other 5X hands (like 56 or A5) for reasons I forget now. It was proofed with math which is why it stuck with me so it should be fairly easy to affirm or deny with today's solvers. I want to say it was from Mike Caro but reserve the right to be wrong.

    IMO, in these multi way limped pots with these small connectors, in order to get paid two things have to happen. 1) There can't be any other two suited out there (we only beat 32 when it comes in) and 2) There can't be any 6X rags out there that could counterfeit our straight. As a result, Trip 5 and 4 are our only clean winners. Admittedly, if we get to the river in a tight spot, we would expect villian to tip his hand but now we're relying on hero to have the skill to read it and fold reasonably correctly. Put another way, this is a lot of assumptions for 1/3. More often than not the EV of the hand isn't worth the risk.

    The range construction also looks very different in the usual 1/3 vs a good 3/5 game (where this rarely happens). Given the amount of gambling that goes on in these smaller games, the hand value decreases and it's already low. Raising to fold out some of the other junk, even if it's just a squeeze/ATS, is much better than bleeding out the .5 blind and subsequent calls needed to realize the equity. This is a leak (again IMO) at least at these stakes.
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