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2/5 Shoving 2nd pair when the top pair pairs the board.

BTN is a recreational player playing about 90% of his hands. Limp/calling his whole range including big hands.

Effective stacks are 500$ 4 Limps to me in BB with QspadeQclub I make it 45$ to go.
MP calls, BTN calls.
Pot: 145$ Flop: AspadeTheart8heart, I CBet 75$, MP folds, BTN calls.
Pot 295$ Turn: 7diamond, Villain looks at me with an honest worried looks, I bet 150$ and he calls. I've seen him call and look away from the board when he was strong.
Pot is 595$ River is an Adiamond And he looks at me with the same worried look. He's got about 275$ left and I bet it all.
I feel a lot of his range can call the river any Tx any counterfeit 2 pairs, any pairs that picked up a draw.

on a previous hand he called Turn and river with Tclub9spade on 4club5clubJheart9clubKspade


  • PhulHouze Posts: 200Member
    I tend to play a bit less aggressively in such marginal spots because I have found it so easy to extract value when you are a monster favorite over an opponent's range. I do think you are probably right that the ace pairing you puts you ahead of his range due to card removal, so it may be a profitable play. My feeling is that if it is profitable it's marginally profitable and high variance, so I'll usually opt to pass on some spots that are only slightly EV in order to lower variance, but that's not necessarily appropriate for every player.

    If you think your read is that dead on, of course his range gets super tight and it becomes a big +EV play, so then it's a definite bet. However, I'd be careful about letting tells have a big influence on your decisions. That worried look actually scares the shit out of me cause I've seen so many guys do it when they have a monster. I'll only rely on a tell once I've seen it confirmed with a showdown by that player. So if you've seen him make that same worried look and end up showing a weak hand, by all means, go for value.

    You also have to consider, though, that he may feel his ace w no kicker is a marginal hand against you. In your above example of him calling with a 9 on a 45j9k board, I'm assuming the flop was checked and that he didn't call a flop bet with no pair/no draw. He could have ruled out a J from his opponent's range due to the flop check, or have been hoping to hit two pair, then decided it was unlikely his opponent bet turn and backed into a king....who knows. I'm also assuming the other hand you mention is against a different opponent, so he may think the other guy is FOS but he gives you credit for being a tight player. There are just so many variables that the details matter a lot in ranging him. Is this the type of player who is likely to put you on a dominating ace? Any chance he'd be worried you turned the nuts w J9? Seems unikely, but what other reason would an offsuit 7 ott scare him? So even if you conclude that the worried look is genuine, since your holding is marginal as well, it's kind of a coin flip to determine who has the better marginal holding. Aces make up such a huge portion of a recreational player's pf calling range, though, so I'm usually prepared to give credit rather than cash when an ace pops.
  • marseille Posts: 400Subscriber
    Thinking the villain is calling down with a 10x here or any pair+ draw after three streets of betting seems more than a little optimistic; to me it seems suicidal. I agree that you should be careful about the "worried" tell. He might be worried about his A kicker for all you know. Also, you say he is close to 90% vpip but what about his postflop play? I know lots of regs who are loose passive preflop but nitty postflop. Just because he wants to see pots doesn't mean he will call down three streets with middle pair. What do you imagine your line look like from his eyes? Is there some reason he would call you down so light here? Of course, if he is a notorious calling station, bombs away, but that is not included in your read.
  • ThatOtherJeremy Posts: 314Member
    Against this player, I just don't think there's a lot of merit to play so aggro in a marginal spot. If he overplays any pair then by definition he should disregard kickers so A-rag will always be in his range. Even with removal, its somewhat needlessly high variance against a player type where you can be super safe and super profitable by just exploiting the station when you are definitively ahead.

    Player tells and your perceived range here are just fluff for the most part. You first sentence says everything we need to know about the player. Realizing value from him should be simple and straight forward, going for the jugular here seems way excessive, even if you happened to be right
  • PokerIsFrustrating Posts: 657Member
    What is the purpose of this triple barrel? Are you trying to bluff villain off of tpnk when he called you down twice and his hand has now improved on the river?

    Are you trying to get value from a ten?

    Were you trying to get called by draws and now have bet because you aren't sure what to do?

    If a fish called you twice I assume you're getting called by an ace. If you decided to take this line I would either bet small to try to get looked up by a ten or check as draws are checking anyway.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,086Subscriber
    I think his worried look is because he has a weak ace. He is NEVER folding this..

    With this good of a pair you are in a classic Way ahead way behind situation on the flop and its generally better to check behind to get value from worse on later streets. It would be awful to get called by say A2 but get JJ to fold on this flop. If you check you probably can get JJ to call at least one street and maybe even turn and river..

    check the flop and if villain bets call turn and see what villain does on river. If he checks I would make a smaller value bet on the river .. if he bombs the river I would just fold.

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