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First hand posted!!!

MKARACAS Posts: 5SubscriberProfessional
Hi guys!!

For my first hand here I'd like to post something with a specific question.
Game is 1-2 and v raises to 7 from early mp.
V raises pretty tight but when he does its 5-6× at least.
When he goes to showdown his range is pretty strong.
In this hand however he raised 7€ and everyone folded to me (co) where i raised 20 with AJo.(bet sizing??)
I want to keep his whole range in and i think i can win the hand with many ways postflop.
So he calls (300 eff) and flop is AK5r, goes check check. (42 pot)
I dont think he will call with hands i beat so i choose to give him a free card to pick up sone extra equity.
Turn is Q and he bets 30.
I call (102 pot),river is a 3 which completes a bfd and he bets 30.
Im pretty sure i lose here so my question is:
Do i win here 1 out of 5 times so that i can call profitably and if not whats the minimum number of times required so that i can call +ev here??

Comments

  • 292YBlock Posts: 86Subscriber
    So he bet 30 into 102, 30 to win 132 for you? Why do you think you're beat, if he made his flush and he's a decent player he should bet larger for value, no? Think you only need to be right about 16-17% of the time here.
  • irwinbetirwinbet Posts: 345Subscriber
    Welcome to the CLP forums. Going forward, when posting hands it is helpful to include the suits of the cards in your hand and on the board. It's a little tough to analyze this hand when we don't have this information.
    As posted, I think I prefer a bet on the flop to a check. Seems like a spot where we should be cbetting a lot. Bet doesn't have to be big at all.
    It's tough to say what to do with the rest of the hand without knowing the suits of the cards.
  • MKARACAS Posts: 5SubscriberProfessional
    Thanks fir the responses.
    First, I think I wrote about flushes,flop is rainbow.
    As for the hand,i think im beat because (and thats a detail I should have mentioned) v never 4bets with AK,AQ.
    That,combined with his very strong showdown range makes me feel not so good with my hand.
    My question is given all that,how many times do i win here??
    I'm pretty sure i dont have the correct odds.
    My guess is that if it was something like 1/10 I'd call without further thinking.
  • Sonny Posts: 318Subscriber
    edited January 11
    Even though the flop is rainbow, its still important to try to include what suit what card was.
    For instance in the hand you posted, lets say a Spade flush completes on the river, then a flop of A K 5 is going to get you a different answer than if it was A K 5.
    It makes a big difference espically if its the top card that makes the backdoor flush.

    As far as the hand goes, if he's never bluffing and you are never good here, than its a fold.

    In $1/2 when players bet anything under $10, its usually less than a premium hand. You say he normally opens around $10-12 with his real hands, so I would put him on a range that isn't very strong, I think KQ is a possibility, also is a random suited hand that completed its flush on the river.
    Without knowing the player I think it is also possible he has a weak Ace given his weak preflop sizing, checking the flop and then betting small on the turn and river.

    However its player dependent, like I said, if you're never good than even if you're getting 20 to 1 its a fold.

    I would be tempted to look him up.

    There probably is some sort of optimal percentage that you should call with, but live lower stakes poker isnt optimal, so it's basically impossible to say that if you're getting 6 to 1 or whatever than you should always call. It depends on so many things. And even if it was the case that you should always call if you are getting 6 to 1, than a good player would just always make a bet where you are getting 6 to 1 and you would have to call, thus making the optimal play exploitable and no longer optimal.
  • 292YBlock Posts: 86Subscriber
    MKARACAS said:
    Thanks fir the responses.
    First, I think I wrote about flushes,flop is rainbow.
    As for the hand,i think im beat because (and thats a detail I should have mentioned) v never 4bets with AK,AQ.
    That,combined with his very strong showdown range makes me feel not so good with my hand.
    My question is given all that,how many times do i win here??
    I'm pretty sure i dont have the correct odds.
    My guess is that if it was something like 1/10 I'd call without further thinking.
    AK should bet a little larger for value, only hand I see you loosing to is AQ, and I would think AQ suited opens for larger, if he's as tight as you say I doubt he has J10 and you block a J. I'd call - but you seem to think you have a very specific read - I'm not sure it's good poker to raise this player with AJo AND then fold with this flop and run out...

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