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Free Video: CLP Video No. 287: Home Game Bart Reviews His Splashy At \$1-\$3 Deep Part 2

Free Podcast: CLP Podcast No. 54: Time Warp And Turn Value # Would you take a fold or a call knowing u have 60% equity.

Posts: 117Member
\$950 buyin event. 579 players entries, about 75 players left and 59 pay. Big blind ante format

Hero shoves KQ for 7bb... folds to BB.

BB tanks and obviously does not have Ax or a pair as he would call with those. So we know we are about 60% favorite here. Say the BB gives us the option if we want him to call or fold.

Would we want a call to take the 60% edge flip or have him fold and pick up 2.5bb uncontested ?

• Posts: 191Subscriber
.6 *15.5 = 9.3
7+2.5 = 9.5
edited January 13
justfourfun said:
.6 *15.5 = 9.3
7+2.5 = 9.5
I dont think the math is that simple. At 60% of 2.5bbs you would want to take the fold and its not close, imo.

The value of the fold is + 2.5BBs..

The value of a call is 9.5bbs (opponents \$\$ and ante, not your own) x .6 = 5.7bbs. But then you must subtract the equilibrium of 50% on 9.5bbs which is 4.25. So 5.7-4.25 = 1.45bbs. By my calculations you would need to be at least a 71% favorite (.71x9.5= 6.75, then - 4.25= 2.5)) to be indifferent. Factor in the fact that you get knocked out if you lose, you can even make a case for 75% or more before you want a call.

The reason why that first math doesnt -- lets say the equity is less but the total pot is more.. like say 30% equity but a 50bb shove. We can't just say .3 x 50 = +15bbs.
• Posts: 117Member
edited January 14
Bart said:
justfourfun said:
.6 *15.5 = 9.3
7+2.5 = 9.5
I dont think the math is that simple. At 60% of 2.5bbs you would want to take the fold and its not close, imo.

The value of the fold is + 2.5BBs..

The value of a call is 9.5bbs (opponents \$\$ and ante, not your own) x .6 = 5.7bbs. But then you must subtract the equilibrium of 50% on 9.5bbs which is 4.25. So 5.7-4.25 = 1.45bbs. By my calculations you would need to be at least a 71% favorite (.71x9.5= 6.75, then - 4.25= 2.5)) to be indifferent. Factor in the fact that you get knocked out if you lose, you can even make a case for 75% or more before you want a call.

The reason why that first math doesnt -- lets say the equity is less but the total pot is more.. like say 30% equity but a 50bb shove. We can't just say .3 x 50 = +15bbs.
Thanks so much for the math work, amazing. When calculating these situations, is it always - equilibrium of 50%? Say for the example you gave where we have 30% of 50bb shove. Also isn’t opponents \$\$ and ante = 8.5BB and not 9.5bb since he posted bb so it takes him 6 to call + 2.5 dead?

@J4fun thanks also for the effort and time

Results: in game I decided I would rather take the dead money and told the villian to fold, which he did.
FriendlyFish said:
Bart said:
justfourfun said:
.6 *15.5 = 9.3
7+2.5 = 9.5
I dont think the math is that simple. At 60% of 2.5bbs you would want to take the fold and its not close, imo.

The value of the fold is + 2.5BBs..

The value of a call is 9.5bbs (opponents \$\$ and ante, not your own) x .6 = 5.7bbs. But then you must subtract the equilibrium of 50% on 9.5bbs which is 4.25. So 5.7-4.25 = 1.45bbs. By my calculations you would need to be at least a 71% favorite (.71x9.5= 6.75, then - 4.25= 2.5)) to be indifferent. Factor in the fact that you get knocked out if you lose, you can even make a case for 75% or more before you want a call.

The reason why that first math doesnt -- lets say the equity is less but the total pot is more.. like say 30% equity but a 50bb shove. We can't just say .3 x 50 = +15bbs.
Thanks so much for the math work, amazing. When calculating these situations, is it always - equilibrium of 50%? Say for the example you gave where we have 30% of 50bb shove. Also isn’t opponents \$\$ and ante = 8.5BB and not 9.5bb since he posted bb so it takes him 6 to call + 2.5 dead?

@J4fun thanks also for the effort and time

Results: in game I decided I would rather take the dead money and told the villian to fold, which he did.
Im not exactly sure what you are asking.. But if you were to shove 50 bbs and were called and had 30% equity.. you lose 10bbs (result is 15bbs) on the shove as 25bbs is the break even point at 50%. Bart