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Could I have saved $500?

JCW Posts: 591Subscriber
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
$5/$10 Commerce (1500 cap game) 9 Handed.

v1... Unimportant to hand.
v2... unknown but seem to want to see flops. He was my Spot at the table (the person I am focusing on as I expect to make the most money from him). I was in a hand that I won against him where 2 very big scared cards came off and he didn't bluff either of them. He just showed down and lost. So I expected he wasn't a bluffer.

Hero Image: Lag-tard. Was loose and losing. Failed in a bluff.

Effective about $1700

Hero AdiamondAheart

Hero Raises from UTG to $40. Two callers.

Flop 9heart:5nosuit5nosuit

Pot $120
Hero bets out $85.
1 call, v2 raises to $200, Hero Calls, v1 folds.

Pot about $600
Jheart
Hero c/c. v2 bets $500

Pot $1600
Qclub

v2 AI (800+)
Hero Folds.

Is this turn call a mistake? I ended up calling and folding the River when he went AI. I just thought that since he didn't bluff before, he wasn't going to fire 3 bullets. but I was immediately wondering if I could have saved the $500.

Also I later saw him limp in with AA in a strange spot with a lot of action preflop, so as I expect, I thought he could once in a while have TT-QQ in his range. With both the J and Q coming even those rare hands got there.. So really there was just nothing I was beating but bluffs. But then I also later saw him fire 2 bullets with AKs when he missed. I would have done the same with AK in the spot, but it did show that he could fire bullets.

So again, did I need to call that turn to confirm that he had it? Or was that just wasted money.

Thxs

Comments

  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,085Subscriber
    JCW

    I think whether you call the flop check raise or not is how passive this guy really is. You know he wont bluff the river.. BUT would he overplay and overpair? That I think is the key. If he NEVER overplays and overpair then I think you can find a fold. I also think when a very passive player just bombs a street that is usually indicative of a very strong hand. Now I dont think he has 9s full cuz passive players would wait until the river and then just lead into you. but it sure looks like he has a 5. A5 56 and maybe 54 are all in his range..

    I wouldnt beat yourself up though..

    wendy
  • Gordon806 Posts: 59Member
    JCW,

    I disagree with Wendy. Its extremely exploitable if you are folding AA to c/r on the flop. I mean really? Especially in California! There are other issues with the hand tho that is worth contemplating.

    As for the hand here are my issues...

    1. What are you trying to accomplish by betting so much on the flop? It's a pretty dry board. I'm assuming its rainbow flop because you didn't show the other suits. So I'm guessing you bet $85 into $120 because your trying to get value from TT-KK or a 9...Because I wouldn't bet $85 to chase out 66-88 or overs and floats. It might seem a small thing but its not imo. Also, what was your plan before you bet if he raised? Kinda like...oh shit when it happened? I don't know this player, but you said your image is loose and loosing. Does he know that or can even comprehend that your range is tighter raising to $40 from UTG? Would he play KK this way thinking its the nuts and going to charge you every step of the way because your loose and losing?

    2. Why did you check the turn? Basically my question to you is you spent $625 on this hand, Do you think it was the best way to spend $625? Forget could I have saved $500. What if you said to yourself on the turn. If I bet $500 here and he shoves there is no possible way he could ever have anything but a 5 and I can safely fold. That seems a lot better of a way to spend $500. Now I'm not saying that is the case here or the amount you should bet, but I think you get what I'm saying. Only you know with your read of the player and sometimes we don't know until we see a bunch of hands shown down.

    3. What does his bets tell you? To me its seems if Bart was doing this I would expect a 5. A.k.a Max value. I don't expect this from passive players. $500 into $600 seems like I want you to fold to me. Or I would do this to players that I expect to have an extremely tight range. Not ur image. Check raising a 5 on the flop to a player that you think has a big pair or loose is pretty bad imo. Plus if he put you on KK or AA you could easily also have JJ or QQ and he's screwed so would he continue to bet like this?
  • JCW Posts: 591Subscriber
    VincentReo

    You miss read the situation. There was no Check Raise. I was UTG and first to act.

    1. Betting 85 into 120 in this game is fairly standard. There is nothing unusual for that bet. it is 2/3 pot. Most of my cBets in the game are around that range. I could have made it as little as 70 and still have been constant in sizing. But 85 would not have been unusual in any way.

    2. I checked turn to see how he bet the turn. His actions will give a lot of information. Yeah I could have bet out into him and then judged his actions.

    3. In this case his bet seem very strong. He wasn't the type to use bluff cards. The turn card was a scared card to any 9 and TT. That is why my question was could I save the $500 here on the turn and just fold. There is just too little I beat.
  • Stonewalled Posts: 480Subscriber
    JCW,

    Given your read at the time, and given that there's really nothing but air that Villain could be bluffing (back door flush draw is obv extremely unlikely here), I think you probably should fold when he bombs the turn. I don't think a passive player is often overplaying a hand that you beat, such as 9x and any lower pair.
  • TDF Posts: 1,130Subscriber
    JCW said
    1. Betting 85 into 120 in this game is fairly standard. There is nothing unusual for that bet. it is 2/3 pot. Most of my cBets in the game are around that range. I could have made it as little as 70 and still have been constant in sizing. But 85 would not have been unusual in any way.
    You can (and you should) vary your betsizing according to specific flops. I bet this flop small (60-65) with my entire range and I'm not giving away any information about my hand.

    I'm check folding this turn. I don't think he ever bluffs and I don't think 9x or TT in his value range so we only beat KK and QQ and he's not always betting so much with them - there are not many draws on this board he want to protect his hand against. What does he think about your range on the turn? Does he realize it's overpair-heavy and he tries to get max value from overpair?
  • AesahAesah Posts: 1,048Pro
    Well you can't beat any of his value hands on the turn unless he flats pre with KK/QQ, so maybe fold there if you think he never has air? I haven't played NLHE in long enough to offer any good comments on turn/river

    but I agree with TDF that your standard cbet sizing should be smaller on this flop
  • ThatOtherJeremy Posts: 314Member
    I also like a smaller flop bet sizing...even is 2/3 is very standard Cbet in your session, it is still essentially a TP or OP sized bet. Its usually folding out some of the marginal MP hands that may have flatted you preflop 66, 77, 88 and continued against this texture. The clickback on flop is so odd, considering the other guy called your flop bet. You would think stronger flopped hands like trips would try to build more value early on when we are continuing with our widest range. Its even more strange that the other guy folded after you called.

    You never denoted the other villains positions preflop, which would be somewhat helpful here, as if all 3 of you were EP its harder to see hands with 5s in them consistently calling UTG opens. When he raises the flop, I think we need to keep all of the hands 88, 99, 1010-QQ, as well as A5ss 56ss in his range, but based on bet sizing I would think hes more weighted to pairs here.

    How often you think this player is capable of flatting you with big pairs PF in position is a factor as well. So the flop raise is just a strange action because it feels more like a naked OP, all of which you beat of course. But when his bet sizing changes dramatically on the turn, we should feel like something has changed. I would think a player with a 5 is going to raise the flop bigger but keep the turn valu-ish and then bomb the river to look bluffy. Plus by the river it should be hard for the overpair to fold out. This opponent should have you pretty square on an OP, if he thinks it is AA KK and you are fairly locked in, he should only be bombing this turn with a really strong hand because it is a setup for the shove. Sure it seems bluffy Im not sure what hands other than AA, A5 and 9s full he expects will (sometimes) look him up here, but if it were a bluff why would the flop be a super value clickback? I would give a lot of weight to JJ here. Its a borderline decision on these boards to play really strong hands vs perceived OPs as if you were bluffing to induce action, or to just get your opponent into a safer check/call mode. Maybe he went with the former here.

    As played, its a pretty clear fold on the turn. You have no maneuverability on the river once you call this big bet. Flop bet should be more 45% pot sized to get action from the hands we beat, I think the calling the flop raise is fine, once that other guys called your flop open I would never want to raise with this hand on the flop
  • PhulHouze Posts: 200Member
    Tough spot. Even if he was overplaying an overpair OTF, he probably ran into a boat by the river. I guess you could bet/fold turn. If he had 9x or TT that would probably get him to at least think for a second before calling, if he calls at all, and it would eliminate those hands from his raising range. I still don't think it gets him to fold KK or QQ, and he is probably still raising those hands. Not sure how many villains will flat w KK and QQ pf from early position though, so if he raises the turn, his range will consist almost entirely of JJ, 99, 5x and J9 if he's at all competent.

    Problem is, I've seen some players make flop raises like this w 66-88, AK, AQ. The guys who become emotionally attached to their preflop holdings and lash out in frustration that their 'big hand' didn't connect with the board. I don't play 5-10, so you might not see this type of player there, but they're all over at 1-2 and 2-5, so against an unknown villain you need to put an * in front of any range you give them.
  • JCW Posts: 591Subscriber
    Well after I folded river he flashed a 5. I just wish I had saved the $500.
  • PhulHouze Posts: 200Member
    If you lose $500 out of a $1700 stack every time your aces get cracked on the flop, consider yourself lucky.
  • The Clubber Posts: 110Member
    Would anyone consider clicking back the flop? He could call with other over pairs and if he comes over the top or bets again you can pretty safely assume you're beat.
  • ThatOtherJeremy Posts: 314Member
    The Clubber said

    Would anyone consider clicking back the flop? He could call with other over pairs and if he comes over the top or bets again you can pretty safely assume you're beat.
    Personally, no. Reason: we are calling his flop click back because we should be assuming (at this point) that we have the best hand most of the time. But we could also level ourselves out of the hand before we have a chance to see what transpires on the turn. We have to think that most players at this level aren't firing multiple bullets, but many will fire one on the flop. The call IMO gives us more insight into his hand strength when he acts on future streets.
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    I think you played the hand well until the turn, and once he bombs it, you just have to fold. There are basically no value hands he's doing that with which you beat, and you said he doesn't bluff. Also, you have only two outs, so it's a clear fold.
    If you had played longer with him and are very confident in your reads, it probably becomes a fold on the flop (in theory, even though it's hard to actually do it at the table).

    Based on villain's tendencies, reraising the flop is suicidal IMO. First, if he only has nutty hands or air, why would we want to fold out his air? Second, we think his air range is small, so we can only fold right now or call and evaluate turn (in case he once in a while overplays some weired hand we beat).
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