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$1-$3 river decision w/ AA on double paired board

irwinbetirwinbet Posts: 383Subscriber
Early in session. Hero has neutral image. Villain is a regular rec losing player who is very loose passive pre; tends to be passive post as well with both draws & value hands. Usually buys in for $100.
Preflop: Hero opens to $12 UTG w/ A A . Villain & 1 other call, both in MP. Villain has about $150 & I cover him. Pot is $35.
Flop: 7 7 5 . I c-bet $15 and only the villain calls. Pot is $65
Turn: K . I bet $30 and he calls. Pot is $125. Villain has about $90 left.
River: 5 . What's your play and why? If you bet, what is your sizing? What do you do if he shoves?
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Comments

  • NorbertHering Posts: 16Member
    Hi! Ok if you say, he is very loose and passive, he can have that 7 or 5. But by checking you will miss a lot of value, if he has a pocket or a random king. I think I would shove it here, but I´m not certain this is the correct play. But bet/fold here is wrong I think,
  • Xboblove Posts: 120Member
    edited January 20
    In these small games, playing a big pot with a pair is often a losing proposition. I check back and if he jams, NH sir...

    While he could have a flush draw here, you can't bet, he's only calling when your beat. He could have a pocket pair but odds say he shouldn't when your holding one.
  • irwinbetirwinbet Posts: 383Subscriber
    I bet $35 on the river, hoping to get called by a pocket pair like 88-QQ or a K. He called & mhig. I didn't get to see his hand. Not sure if I made a sizing mistake OTR. I can't bet fold, given the odds I would be getting. A shove might get called by a K? But a shove might fold out some of the pocket pairs I was targeting?
  • Daddyslap Posts: 46Subscriber
    edited January 25
    Villian's stack is short enough where they should be calling a river jam with any K or 88-JJ. I would like to think we would have been raised on the flop by an over pair to the board, but we can't count on V being compotent. I think QQ would have raised pre at these stakes, so I'd be value jamming the river expecting a call from all sorts of stuff, and I don't expect a fold given stacks sizes.
  • irwinbetirwinbet Posts: 383Subscriber
    Reviewing the SPR/pot geometry of it now, I realize that had I just sized my flop and/or turn bets a tiny bit larger it would have set up for a better shove on the river. This is definitely something I am not good at considering in game.
  • Daddyslap Posts: 46Subscriber
    I don't think your sizing is that far off; you have a little less fold equity with slightly larger flop/turn bets, but I don't think it makes that much of a difference given that he has less than pot left on the river.
  • GlennJones Posts: 146Subscriber
    irwinbet said:
    Reviewing the SPR/pot geometry of it now, I realize that had I just sized my flop and/or turn bets a tiny bit larger it would have set up for a better shove on the river. This is definitely something I am not good at considering in game.
    ^^Yes - this. I would probably size preflop larger too. If you can add a BB or two to your bet, and lead for something like $16, your preflop pot is going to be $48 (assumes both still call for the extra $4 a piece). Now you can size up your flop bet to something like $30-$35 and when villain calls, you'll have a $110-$120 pot and villain is left with less than a pot size bet. Once you're here, the hand kind of plays itself.

    If he shows up with a 7 or a 5, just remember - *he's* the one who made the mistake by calling off more than 10% of his stack preflop with a marginal hand without the proper odds to do so. He will be the source of your profit in the future.

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