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My little 1-1 Tuesday game bet/fold river?

NicholasK Posts: 237Member
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Villain:SB $250
-Extensive history (200+ hours)
-very loose pre
-will bet/call down with 3rd pair
*really values an Ace on 2 pair boards
-In the last 90 minutes I've made 5 or 6 very large bluffs including tripple barrel raises and c/r turn and river bluffs. only got called on one but V knows I'm likely to fight for large pots extremely aggressively and is going to call me lighter than usual.

Game: my non-casino bar 1-1 game non raked (only 2 decent games in town this one and Wed at casino) Starts absurdly short-stacked 20bb but gets deeper through the night. 3 handed NLHE.

Hero:BB $170 Adiamond3diamond

Pre: UTG/Button Folds V checks I raise $4 V calls

I wanted to build a pot in case of Flush and also to play bigger pots in general in position. I'd do this with J8suited + 56 &67 suited. V knows my range. V's call gives his range 96off+

Flop: $10 3heart3spade10club
V bets $6, I raise to $18, V 3bets to $42 I call

V knows I'm likely to attack paired boards and is aggressive enough to do this with a naked ace 50% of the time but nearly every combo of 10s above 10-4 offsuit are in his range here & any overpair and maybe 1/2 of his PP above a 5.

Turn: $94 3heart3spade10club10heart

V checks, I check behind

Live read on V. His eyes bugged out a bit when he saw the 10 and he likes to slow play monsters because I bluff too often.

River: $94 Brick

V checks I bet $46 intending to bet/fold

I thought his aces and unlikely threes would call but his 10s would c/r. Thoughts?

Comments

  • Mike Posts: 371Member
    The way you played the hand your hand looks like a 3 IMO. I think a better approach would have been bet the turn and maybe check the river. Given the action i dont think he will ch/r the river here very often because he has no reason to beleive that you would bet when checked too with your hands that have showdown value. This is assuming he is a decent hand reader and not just playing his hand.

    I think betting a little smaller on the river is better to get him to make a crying call with like A high or maybe something like 55. maybe bet ~30 or so on the river.
  • NicholasK Posts: 237Member
    Mike said
    The way you played the hand your hand looks like a 3 IMO. I think a better approach would have been bet the turn and maybe check the river.
    I agree a bet on the turn wouldn't have turned my hand face up. I felt very strongly that he had a 10, which made me think later that if I'm going to check the turn I really might have had to check back the river as well. I was wanting to be able to call a river bet and when it didn't come I went for value but I still thought he had the 10 there so maybe it was a bad play. That's really what has got me so confused about the hand...was the river value bet wasting money if I was so certain I'd fold a full house. Did I really need the river confirmation?
    Mike said
    Given the action i don't think he will ch/r the river here very often because he has no reason to beleive that you would bet when checked too with your hands that have showdown value. This is assuming he is a decent hand reader and not just playing his hand.
    He's playing his cards, for the most part but he will always check to me with his monsters unless he sees weakness and the turn check was not weak given the 3bet call on the flop. He knew I had the 3 and that I would bet it a good % of the time.
    Mike said
    I think betting a little smaller on the river is better to get him to make a crying call with like A high or maybe something like 55. maybe bet ~30 or so on the river.
    I think you're right perhaps, I just didn't want to induce a bluff with a small bet when I planned to bet/fold.
  • Mike Posts: 371Member
    you cant squarely put him on a T everytime because he 3b you on the flop. You say that he is going to 3b your flop raise a lot why dont you just jam it down his throat on the flop? The only reason to not shove the flop is if he is going to fold but will give more action on later streets with his weaker holdings. All of which you should be able to get at least 1 more street of value from. If you cant get any more value from a hand like 66 then you should just jam the flop and hope that you cooler him.

    If he knows that you have the 3 and he knows that you will bet fold the 3 then he should be ch/r his entire range. If that is the case then bet small and call it off since he is more likely to 3b you on the flop with little showdown value than to do it with a T.
  • NicholasK Posts: 237Member
    Mike said

    you cant squarely put him on a T everytime because he 3b you on the flop. You say that he is going to 3b your flop raise a lot why dont you just jam it down his throat on the flop? The only reason to not shove the flop is if he is going to fold but will give more action on later streets with his weaker holdings. All of which you should be able to get at least 1 more street of value from. If you cant get any more value from a hand like 66 then you should just jam the flop and hope that you cooler him.

    If he knows that you have the 3 and he knows that you will bet fold the 3 then he should be ch/r his entire range. If that is the case then bet small and call it off since he is more likely to 3b you on the flop with little showdown value than to do it with a T.
    Jamming the flop would have been good. And I do think he had some aces in his range on the river. I was just second guessing the logic that says I should check back the turn but bet the river even though not much can change.

    He did ch/r me and when I folded he exclaimed about how he thought I had the three (and showed me his 10,6 offsuit) I don't think he would ch/r anything but the 10 there and it was a good fold but I feel I could have played it better up to the river though.
  • ThatOtherJeremy Posts: 314Member
    Honestly I think you misplayed every street. I cant see much of a case to not playing back at his $42 flop raise. Again, youre the one with the history but the 3 bet on this board is either a 3, 10, or an OP, to me he is repping an OP more than a 10 here. You should always be trying to get money in early in the hand. If he really does just have the naked A, how much more heat can he take? How many bad cards can come for you both? You are missing lots of value IMO. As played, I think you should be bet/folding this turn. Who cares if he has a propensity to overplay hands. These are super low stakes and the clear history between you guys , combined with your lock on his playing style, makes it undesirable to get yourself into marginal situations (and yes, given how you played the flop, this board has now become marginal for you). Also, It makes no sense to check this turn and not check the river. If you both checked the turn, you can now comfortably CALL a river bet. But as played the river bet does nothing but muddle our story.
  • NicholasK Posts: 237Member
    ThatOtherJeremy said

    Honestly I think you misplayed every street. I cant see much of a case to not playing back at his $42 flop raise. Again, youre the one with the history but the 3 bet on this board is either a 3, 10, or an OP, to me he is repping an OP more than a 10 here. You should always be trying to get money in early in the hand. If he really does just have the naked A, how much more heat can he take? How many bad cards can come for you both? You are missing lots of value IMO. As played, I think you should be bet/folding this turn. Who cares if he has a propensity to overplay hands. These are super low stakes and the clear history between you guys , combined with your lock on his playing style, makes it undesirable to get yourself into marginal situations (and yes, given how you played the flop, this board has now become marginal for you). Also, It makes no sense to check this turn and not check the river. If you both checked the turn, you can now comfortably CALL a river bet. But as played the river bet does nothing but muddle our story.
    I appreciate your criticism. That's why I posted this hand. That being said, please don't disregard the spot as unimportant due to the "super low stakes" involved. If it helps you, multiply by ten when thinking about this or future hands from this game I post.

    I'm not sure what I'm trying to get value from if I shove on the flop. Perhaps a weaker 3 could call but that 4 bet shove on the flop is likely to just get folded to, and I thought the hand too strong to merit giving up on stacks at the flop. The turn and river I agree on your assessment. I think I either should have bet/folded the turn or checked the turn with the intent of just flatting a river bet or checking behind. I think I just got muddled on trying to bet thin for value on the river.
  • Mike Posts: 371Member
    You are unlikely to get value from anything anyways. Once you call the 3b OTF and the board runs out in a safe manor for youis he really gonna put any more money in with a T? It kinda seems like you either shove and take the pot now, or give him a free chanceto outdraw on you when he isnt going to put more money in anyways.
  • NicholasK Posts: 237Member
    Mike said

    You are unlikely to get value from anything anyways. Once you call the 3b OTF and the board runs out in a safe manor for youis he really gonna put any more money in with a T? It kinda seems like you either shove and take the pot now, or give him a free chanceto outdraw on you when he isnt going to put more money in anyways.
    I agree that I'm unlikely to get value from anything on the 4bet shove on the flop. Why should I throw away possible future value by shoving when I'm looking at 2 outs for the villain?
  • ThatOtherJeremy Posts: 314Member
    NicholasK said
    ThatOtherJeremy said

    Honestly I think you misplayed every street. I cant see much of a case to not playing back at his $42 flop raise. Again, youre the one with the history but the 3 bet on this board is either a 3, 10, or an OP, to me he is repping an OP more than a 10 here. You should always be trying to get money in early in the hand. If he really does just have the naked A, how much more heat can he take? How many bad cards can come for you both? You are missing lots of value IMO. As played, I think you should be bet/folding this turn. Who cares if he has a propensity to overplay hands. These are super low stakes and the clear history between you guys , combined with your lock on his playing style, makes it undesirable to get yourself into marginal situations (and yes, given how you played the flop, this board has now become marginal for you). Also, It makes no sense to check this turn and not check the river. If you both checked the turn, you can now comfortably CALL a river bet. But as played the river bet does nothing but muddle our story.
    I appreciate your criticism. That's why I posted this hand. That being said, please don't disregard the spot as unimportant due to the "super low stakes" involved. If it helps you, multiply by ten when thinking about this or future hands from this game I post.

    I'm not sure what I'm trying to get value from if I shove on the flop. Perhaps a weaker 3 could call but that 4 bet shove on the flop is likely to just get folded to, and I thought the hand too strong to merit giving up on stacks at the flop. The turn and river I agree on your assessment. I think I either should have bet/folded the turn or checked the turn with the intent of just flatting a river bet or checking behind. I think I just got muddled on trying to bet thin for value on the river.
    Just to clarify, im not disregarding the hand due to the stakes. My comment about the stakes was to reference the marginality of the spot you are in on the river. Because its a clear way ahead/way behind, and you lost your chance to takedown the pot when you have the definite equity advantage, you should not want to get any more money in this pot. Because at these stakes, being in the hole is undesirable as you now lose the ability to get stacked by a deeper fish. Im not exactly playing high stakes poker myself, lol. Im just saying any time you are against a player you have a "soul read" type of dynamic with, it doesn't make a ton of sense to go for plays that invoke variance
  • ThatOtherJeremy Posts: 314Member
    NicholasK said
    Mike said

    You are unlikely to get value from anything anyways. Once you call the 3b OTF and the board runs out in a safe manor for youis he really gonna put any more money in with a T? It kinda seems like you either shove and take the pot now, or give him a free chanceto outdraw on you when he isnt going to put more money in anyways.
    I agree that I'm unlikely to get value from anything on the 4bet shove on the flop. Why should I throw away possible future value by shoving when I'm looking at 2 outs for the villain?
    Um NIchK, I think you misunderstood Mikes post; he seems like he is agreeing with me. You are kind of contradicting your initial breakdown of the situation. You provided a player dynamic that provided evidence V can call you light. You said he will call down with 3rd pair...ok then so how does he value top pair? By your own analysis of the player, you are getting looked up by a ton of Vs hands, including OPs and possibly top pair! Also, should we be completely disregarding the fact he is 3 betting this flop?? What hands does he need to do this? A shove against a single bet would be sacrificing value. You should be raising here, minimum. And I have to point out, if you dislike playing back the flop so much because of the implied loss of value, why the heck are you checking the turn?? After the flop, he is getting NO more money in unless he has you beat. He is indicating strength on the flop. Ergo, you get lots of money in on the flop.
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    Nicholas, given your description of villain the the dynamics between you and him, I would strongly consider reraising on the flop. You don't need to shove, just click it back to around 90. He will have a hard tome folding any decent hand, and he also might interpret it as you being FOS. (Especially since it's really hard to hacüve a 3. How many hands are there with a 3 in it?)

    As played, your live read on the turn and your river bet are not consistent. If you trust your read, check back the river. There's nothing wrong with checking behind a full house, of villain won't call with worse often enough to bet for value.
  • NicholasK Posts: 237Member
    ThatOtherJeremy said
    Just to clarify, im not disregarding the hand due to the stakes. My comment about the stakes was to reference the marginality of the spot you are in on the river. Because its a clear way ahead/way behind, and you lost your chance to takedown the pot when you have the definite equity advantage, you should not want to get any more money in this pot. Because at these stakes, being in the hole is undesirable as you now lose the ability to get stacked by a deeper fish. Im not exactly playing high stakes poker myself, lol. Im just saying any time you are against a player you have a "soul read" type of dynamic with, it doesn't make a ton of sense to go for plays that invoke variance
    I'm glad to hear that's what you were talking about. I apologize for the misunderstanding. The river was certainly marginal spot to bluff. I was going for strict value but I also agree it wasn't the time/street for that.
  • NicholasK Posts: 237Member
    whatsyourplay? said
    As played, your live read on the turn and your river bet are not consistent. If you trust your read, check back the river. There's nothing wrong with checking behind a full house, of villain won't call with worse often enough to bet for value.
    You're 100% correct.
    whatsyourplay? said

    Nicholas, given your description of villain the the dynamics between you and him, I would strongly consider reraising on the flop. You don't need to shove, just click it back to around 90. He will have a hard tome folding any decent hand, and he also might interpret it as you being FOS. (Especially since it's really hard to hacüve a 3. How many hands are there with a 3 in it?)
    I've never have a 4 bet bluffing range (this spot makes me think I should), so it's hard for me to think I might get called by anything but a 3 and 1010. here's my novice equity calculations.

    EV When called suggested $90 bet (22 combos call)
    Pot = $274 ($42+$42+$90+$90+$10) 54.5%(see stove results below)
    $149.33

    EV When flatting implied odds of single street call of 1/2psb of $46 (80+ combos)
    Pot = $186 ($42+$42+$46+$46+$10) 85.9%(see stove results below)
    $159.77
    *note that this does not include any ace high but does include overpairs
    This is a calculation showing a very small raise on a single street. When you include the fact that the villain is 4x more likely to have a hand in the 2nd range than the first and I'm likely to get much more value than one tiny bet through 2 streets, I think it's a clear flat on the flop


    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    Board: 3h 3s Tc
    Dead:

    equity win tie pots won pots tied
    Hand 0: 54.538% 42.61% 11.93% 8859 2479.50 { Ad3d }
    Hand 1: 45.462% 33.54% 11.93% 6972 2479.50 { TdTh, TdTs, ThTs, Ac3c, Kc3c, Qc3c, Jc3c, Ad3c, Ah3c, As3c, Kd3c, Kh3c, Ks3c, Qd3c, Qh3c, Qs3c, Jd3c, Jh3c, Js3c, Td3c, Th3c, Ts3c }
    157,410 games 0.003 secs 52,470,000 games/sec

    Board: 3h 3s Tc
    Dead:

    equity win tie pots won pots tied
    Hand 0: 85.903% 84.33% 01.58% 132741 2479.50 { Ad3d }
    Hand 1: 14.097% 12.52% 01.58% 19710 2479.50 { JJ+, TdTh, TdTs, ThTs, AhTh, AsTs, Ac3c, KdTd, KhTh, KsTs, Kc3c, QdTd, QhTh, QsTs, Qc3c, JdTd, JhTh, JsTs, Jc3c, Td9d, Th9h, Ts9s, Td8d, Th8h, Ts8s, Td7d, Th7h, Ts7s, Td6d, Th6h, Ts6s, Td5d, Th5h, Ts5s, T4s, AcTd, AcTh, AcTs, AdTh, AdTs, AhTd, AhTs, AsTd, AsTh, Ah3c, As3c, KcTd, KcTh, KcTs, KdTh, KdTs, KhTd, KhTs, KsTd, KsTh, Kd3c, Kh3c, Ks3c, QcTd, QcTh, QcTs, QdTh, QdTs, QhTd, QhTs, QsTd, QsTh, Qd3c, Qh3c, Qs3c, JcTd, JcTh, JcTs, JdTh, JdTs, JhTd, JhTs, JsTd, JsTh, Jd3c, Jh3c, Js3c, Td9c, Td9h, Td9s, Th9c, Th9d, Th9s, Ts9c, Ts9d, Ts9h, Td8c, Td8h, Td8s, Th8c, Th8d, Th8s, Ts8c, Ts8d, Ts8h, Td7c, Td7h, Td7s, Th7c, Th7d, Th7s, Ts7c, Ts7d, Ts7h, Td6c, Td6h, Td6s, Th6c, Th6d, Th6s, Ts6c, Ts6d, Ts6h, Td5c, Td5h, Td5s, Th5c, Th5d, Th5s, Ts5c, Ts5d, Ts5h, Td4c, Td4h, Td4s, Th4c, Th4d, Th4s, Ts4c, Ts4d, Ts4h, Td3c, Th3c, Ts3c }
  • ThatOtherJeremy Posts: 314Member
    NicholasK said
    whatsyourplay? said
    As played, your live read on the turn and your river bet are not consistent. If you trust your read, check back the river. There's nothing wrong with checking behind a full house, of villain won't call with worse often enough to bet for value.
    You're 100% correct.
    whatsyourplay? said

    Nicholas, given your description of villain the the dynamics between you and him, I would strongly consider reraising on the flop. You don't need to shove, just click it back to around 90. He will have a hard tome folding any decent hand, and he also might interpret it as you being FOS. (Especially since it's really hard to hacüve a 3. How many hands are there with a 3 in it?)
    I've never have a 4 bet bluffing range (this spot makes me think I should), so it's hard for me to think I might get called by anything but a 3 and 1010. here's my novice equity calculations.

    EV When called suggested $90 bet (22 combos call)
    Pot = $274 ($42+$42+$90+$90+$10) 54.5%(see stove results below)
    $149.33

    EV When flatting implied odds of single street call of 1/2psb of $46 (80+ combos)
    Pot = $186 ($42+$42+$46+$46+$10) 85.9%(see stove results below)
    $159.77
    *note that this does not include any ace high but does include overpairs
    This is a calculation showing a very small raise on a single street. When you include the fact that the villain is 4x more likely to have a hand in the 2nd range than the first and I'm likely to get much more value than one tiny bet through 2 streets, I think it's a clear flat on the flop


    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    Board: 3h 3s Tc
    Dead:

    equity win tie pots won pots tied
    Hand 0: 54.538% 42.61% 11.93% 8859 2479.50 { Ad3d }
    Hand 1: 45.462% 33.54% 11.93% 6972 2479.50 { TdTh, TdTs, ThTs, Ac3c, Kc3c, Qc3c, Jc3c, Ad3c, Ah3c, As3c, Kd3c, Kh3c, Ks3c, Qd3c, Qh3c, Qs3c, Jd3c, Jh3c, Js3c, Td3c, Th3c, Ts3c }
    157,410 games 0.003 secs 52,470,000 games/sec

    Board: 3h 3s Tc
    Dead:

    equity win tie pots won pots tied
    Hand 0: 85.903% 84.33% 01.58% 132741 2479.50 { Ad3d }
    Hand 1: 14.097% 12.52% 01.58% 19710 2479.50 { JJ+, TdTh, TdTs, ThTs, AhTh, AsTs, Ac3c, KdTd, KhTh, KsTs, Kc3c, QdTd, QhTh, QsTs, Qc3c, JdTd, JhTh, JsTs, Jc3c, Td9d, Th9h, Ts9s, Td8d, Th8h, Ts8s, Td7d, Th7h, Ts7s, Td6d, Th6h, Ts6s, Td5d, Th5h, Ts5s, T4s, AcTd, AcTh, AcTs, AdTh, AdTs, AhTd, AhTs, AsTd, AsTh, Ah3c, As3c, KcTd, KcTh, KcTs, KdTh, KdTs, KhTd, KhTs, KsTd, KsTh, Kd3c, Kh3c, Ks3c, QcTd, QcTh, QcTs, QdTh, QdTs, QhTd, QhTs, QsTd, QsTh, Qd3c, Qh3c, Qs3c, JcTd, JcTh, JcTs, JdTh, JdTs, JhTd, JhTs, JsTd, JsTh, Jd3c, Jh3c, Js3c, Td9c, Td9h, Td9s, Th9c, Th9d, Th9s, Ts9c, Ts9d, Ts9h, Td8c, Td8h, Td8s, Th8c, Th8d, Th8s, Ts8c, Ts8d, Ts8h, Td7c, Td7h, Td7s, Th7c, Th7d, Th7s, Ts7c, Ts7d, Ts7h, Td6c, Td6h, Td6s, Th6c, Th6d, Th6s, Ts6c, Ts6d, Ts6h, Td5c, Td5h, Td5s, Th5c, Th5d, Th5s, Ts5c, Ts5d, Ts5h, Td4c, Td4h, Td4s, Th4c, Th4d, Th4s, Ts4c, Ts4d, Ts4h, Td3c, Th3c, Ts3c }
    I agree it is a novice analysis. Mostly spin, and inherently flawed when leveraged against the specific player dynamic you provide. These numbers only exist in a vaccum. They are a foundation which we should build upon with ALL of the data we have available to make a truly +EV decision. If you would have described the V as a player type who is intelligent enough to correctly range your hand, or who is disciplined enough to make (perceived) big laydowns, then you could defend your flat as the clear +EV choice. However, if he is 3-betting the preF raiser on a flop with a non-A top pair even a SMALL percentage of the time, as well as calling down with 2nd/3rd pair hands, then there is absolutely no way you can or should eliminate so many hands from his 4b flatting range.

    Im not trying to crucify your play or anything. Its not a seriously big mistake when you flat the flop. Its a somewhat marginal error in terms of EV. Its your rationale that's potentially harmful to your longterm EV when you ignore strong circumstantial evidence that a player should behave in a certain way and approach a hand from a purely dogmatic point of view.
  • NicholasK Posts: 237Member
    ThatOtherJeremy said
    I agree it is a novice analysis. Mostly spin, and inherently flawed when leveraged against the specific player dynamic you provide. These numbers only exist in a vaccum. They are a foundation which we should build upon with ALL of the data we have available to make a truly +EV decision. If you would have described the V as a player type who is intelligent enough to correctly range your hand, or who is disciplined enough to make (perceived) big laydowns, then you could defend your flat as the clear +EV choice. However, if he is 3-betting the preF raiser on a flop with a non-A top pair even a SMALL percentage of the time, as well as calling down with 2nd/3rd pair hands, then there is absolutely no way you can or should eliminate so many hands from his 4b flatting range.

    Im not trying to crucify your play or anything. Its not a seriously big mistake when you flat the flop. Its a somewhat marginal error in terms of EV. Its your rationale that's potentially harmful to your longterm EV when you ignore strong circumstantial evidence that a player should behave in a certain way and approach a hand from a purely dogmatic point of view.
    thumb

    I'm pretty new to poker, and I understand many of my thoughts and ideas are flawed. I appreciate your analysis and the time you've put in it. I think the disagreement with the marginal error on the flop boils down to you believing that if my player type is correct I've narrowed his 4bet flatting range too much and so I should be 4betting in that spot. I respect your opinion and will very seriously be thinking about that for a while.

    If I 4bet the flop, what size is ideal? The call would make the pot $94 and I would have $124 behind, what's your betsize?
  • ThatOtherJeremy Posts: 314Member
    NicholasK said


    I'm pretty new to poker, and I understand many of my thoughts and ideas are flawed. I appreciate your analysis and the time you've put in it. I think the disagreement with the marginal error on the flop boils down to you believing that if my player type is correct I've narrowed his 4bet flatting range too much and so I should be 4betting in that spot. I respect your opinion and will very seriously be thinking about that for a while.

    If I 4bet the flop, what size is ideal? The call would make the pot $94 and I would have $124 behind, what's your betsize?
    You seem like a smart guy, I would have no reason to believe your description of the player and his tendencies would be flawed. So my analysis of the hand factored in those tendencies. Your stoving is fine if this were an internet situation, or a case where you had no additional live tells/player data to refine your analysis. But that is the "purely dogmatic" approach that I referenced above, which will haunt you in the long run if you cant correctly incorporate player specific data to assist you at decision points within a hand.

    You have $124 behind, I still like the shove based on that. We have to remember you raised preF, your perceived range is hard pressed to contain a 3, regardless of if you 4 bet. Knowing that, and based on these stack sizes, you should be getting looked up by OP almost always, and against this player type I would have to think his stronger top pair hands would also call enough to realize long term value.
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    Nicholas, based on your description of villain in your OP ("V knows I'm likely to fight for large pots extremely aggressively and is going to call me lighter than usual."), I got the impression that he wouldn't give you credit if you play the flop very aggressively. If you think he would fold a decent Tx hand once you reraise again, than I agree that flatcalling might be superior.
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