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$2/$5 Overpair Versus Check-Raise

ds2uared Posts: 433Subscriber
$600 eff. Hero showed down a bluff in last 20 minutes.

2 limps. Hero Q Q× raises to $40. SB, BB, and 1st limper call.

Flop $153. 6 4× 2 Check, check, check (without a doubt glanced at my stack before checking), Hero bets $75. SB folds. BB calls.

UTG moves all-in for $560. Hero?

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Comments

  • JLBJ Posts: 172Subscriber
    With all the flush draws and smaller overpairs available, I’d have to call here without a strong read on the player.
  • OMGitsWorm Posts: 272SubscriberProfessional
    These spots are so weird. This is player dependent and only you will know your player pool. If your after high variance and DONT have a roll I think just give up and move onto the next hand. So many players just rip in a set here on these types of flops.

    Looking at some ranges and percentages.
    If V is playing all pairs 22-JJ as you would think he would squeeze pre KK-AA.
    If V is playing all his pairs this way you have 73% equity on the flop and V has a set 16% of the time.
    When you start include the FD AJ down to A3 (except A5) and 75 you still have 70% equity.

    Now if you remove all pairs except for 22-66 and keep the same amount of the above FD you are now at 50% equity.

    Personally from my experience I have called in these spots and they show me a set. I would only call against a complete banana in a crazy lose game. Your getting about 1.6:1 on a call so your getting a little better than even money on a call if you think the V will do this with the range above.
    In a standard game I feel it’s always a set so I’m crushed if I call, so I fold then and move onto the next hand.

  • kaboojiekaboojie Posts: 447Subscriber
    edited January 29
    If he plays all his fds and overpairs this way, you are well ahead of his range. However, I don't see players shoving for this much on a draw or airball bluff that often. If you think he sees you as nit that will fold, I might consider a call. Generally though, the population at these levels just has it here. Without any further reads, I'd fold.
  • kasspav Posts: 14Subscriber
    Usually I feel that I have an edge over the table so I typically fold to those kind of raises on the flop, unless its a player willing to stack off with a pair like 77. The fact that we have a heart is bad as it takes out additional potential flush draws. I also multiway bet small on flop.
  • FriendlyFish Posts: 120Member
    Playing against EP limpers who call a big raise I am very cautious on boards like this because they will have all the sets in their limp calling range. Usually I just check back these flops but if I do decide to bet I will usually make up my decision on what to do if raised and that is to fold.

    Without doing all the combo work and plugging poker equilab, I view this spot like this:
    1) villian has a combo draw and we are flipping
    2) villian has a set and we are crushed

    So if we have no proof of villian spazzing with 77 88, our best case scenario is still a flip while our worst case scenario we have like 8% makes this a fold. Also BB is still in the hand and can ocassionally show up with some trapped sets.
  • hustlin Posts: 311Subscriber
    Pretty much snap calling here.

    So many Axhh, 4xhh.
    And once u include some 99-JJ here.

    QQ looks greaatttt here. With no reads or tendencies. Calling here is mandtory. I could consider folding like 99-JJ but folding QQ is way too nitty here.
  • TheSalche Posts: 3Subscriber
    Unless you have a solid read, you have to go with it here. Is UTG really limp/calling AA/KK ? He's got far more combos of overpairs than sets. The only draw you are in a 50/50 spot against is AKs.
  • Daddyslap Posts: 52Subscriber
    edited January 30
    Worm offered a great explanation, and I'd like to echo the statement that every time I've called in a spot like this I was shown a set. Every single time without fail. The idea that people at 1/2 and 2/5 usually don't put a bunch of money into a pot without being nutted is typically true barring specific history with the Villian in question.

    Others are calling this a clear a call, and I'm looking at this as a shrug fold. This is a multiway pot with a wet board that nails every caller's range in a low stakes game. This is a fold all day long imo.
  • Superfly Posts: 434Subscriber
    Villain dependent, but it’s hard for me to see V shoving with less than AA vs the PFR’s flop bet AND BB call. I might call HU. But when he shoves against a bet and a call, I’m folding unless there is strong evidence that V is super aggro.
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