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QQ facing overbet on turn when board pairs

shmed Posts: 321Subscriber
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
$3/5 NLHE 500 max.
UTG and UTG + 1 limp for 5, I raise to $30 w/ QhQd in UTG+3. Folds around to BB who calls, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls.
My image: likely TAG, won pots earlier but not very active recently, with $650 behind. BB: shortie has ~$250, not very active, UTG+1 has ~$450, is a $5/10 reg waiting for a seat at the bigger game to open up, played together only a few times, but I've already seen him be aggressive and seems to be a thinking winning player.

Flop comes Jc6d3h. Both players quickly check, I bet $75 into $90 pot. BB folds, UTG+1 calls after a little thought.
Turn brings 6c, pairing board, bringing a club draw. After a few seconds, UTG+1 over-shoves for $345 into $240 pot.

Hero?
What range do you put UTG +1 on? What range do you think UTG +1 puts the hero on?

Comments

  • ShawnCrichley Posts: 11Member
    I guess AJo, KJs, or 33 to over limp up front, then call pre. 4c5c might make sense for a turn shove, but I'm not sure if he'd limp call with that pre. Tough spot. If I had 33 on a super dry flop, I might check call this flop, but would try to bet half pot on turn if I donked. Then 1/2 pot river. I'd also fold 3-3 pre if I were him.

    Overshove looks a little suspect. Confused

    Did you fold?
  • grindbler Posts: 131Member
    considering these kind of spots are so very player dependant, against some known players it would be a snap call, against others a snap fold, so...
    in general, against an unknown, i would say that it turns out to be a real hand that they have, like 33+ when they take this line.|they are expecting/ hoping that you call, and that you have exactly what you have for the most part...

    then there are random spazz factors too...??
    it really helps to know your players here. thats why its very important to pay attention to tendancies when youre not in hands...
    you'll have the info to make better decisions...
  • shmed Posts: 321Subscriber
    Thanks for the responses. Yes I folded, my rationale was:
    - overlimp, call PF, check call F was a line consistent with a suited connecter with a 6 (or Ac6c), slowplayed 66, 33, maybe some weaker Js, maybe Ac3c (but less likely to call the flop). I suppose Shawn's range but with some 6 or 3 pairs added in. Obviously the 6's in this range hit gin in the turn and probably likely with an outside possibility of a weirdly played set.
    - I thought there were enough easier opponents at the table so that I could let this one go and avoid a high-variance soul read. Agree this is largely read-based -- he really hadn't been at the table long enough for me to know what he was being aggressive with -- no hands to show down really.

    But as I thought more later, I am leaning more toward a call IF I assume he's a good player.
    A good player is probably more likely to in UTG+2 raise a limper with a suited connector PF than call if they play it at all (more likely they fold altogether) -- after all even if they get the ideal chain of limpers, this is not a hand that plays well OOP. Same with broadway J kind of hands. If this is correct, then his range narrows to sets and hands I beat/air. Overshoving a set is unlikely as he's losing value from hands like mine which might call down more value type bets (unless this is a weird one-off). Even backdoor FDs are unlikely -- probably only exactly Ac6c or Ac3c gets there assuming he peels light -- but perhaps more consistent with the overbet to maximize FE -- if you add this in even more reason to call as we are about 70:30 vs. Ac3c.

    On the other hand, if he's one who limps along a wide range (which I didn't think he was -- he seemed to be more of a raise or fold kind of player), there are probably more 6's in his range and probably my rationale is more valid. A less good player probably is more likely to open shove also to protect from the turned FD.

    Anyway, more I thought about it, more I thought I'm good if I call -- but my logic of avoiding high variance spots vs. better opponents still holds I think. Interested if anyone has other thoughts.
  • Doug Hull Posts: 15Member
    I don't like it, but I hold my nose and call.

    This should not be considered an 'overbet' in my mind. He understands that he is pot committed to bet here so just sticks it in. I would say any AI bet into $240 between about $150-$450 are really kinda the same in the sense that you can not credibly bet smaller without the implication of a river shove with almost no fold equity anyways.

    At about $450 he could reasonably bet $150 into $240 and then $300 into $540 and have some fold equity both times.

    I find the shove less threatening than a smaller bet on each street. He is shoving to get some fold equity when he could just ease it in in two streets virtually guaranteeing two crying calls from decent holdings.
  • shmed Posts: 321Subscriber
    Yes Douglas, I agree with your comment on the turn bet sizing. After the heat of the moment subsided -- I think the shove made it less likely he had a value hand, and more likely he was looking for a fold. Interesting point about the "overbet."
  • I can't fold here in this spot. Some of the time you are going to be shown a 6 but a lot of other times he is going to be making some weird play with a J or a flush draw. Maybe even 45. I highly doubt that this is line that 33 takes.

    Bart
  • Outlier Posts: 88Subscriber
    Another factor leaning toward a call is your perceived range--I think it is weighted heavily toward one-pair hands like TT, AJs, QQ-AA. The only monster you could have is JJ. His big bet is putting a lot of pressure on your range,--much more likely to produce a fold than a call. Of course he could be trying to make it look like a bluff, but that's a risky line and one that someone is much more likely to make vs a known opponent/history.
  • shmed Posts: 321Subscriber
    Thanks all. I'm working on making more of these kind of calls against good non-straight forward players -- appreciate the thoughts.
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