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2/5 Floped set of Aces

ClockClock Posts: 1,121Subscriber
edited February 19 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
V is unknown white dude in 30s. Never seen him before, but pretty sure he's a typical tourney donk (there's a tourney series going on)

He had pretty huge stack ~2K when I got to table but been bleeding chips (down to like 1.5K) and appears to be tilting about it a bit...

~1200-1300 effective
UTG raises to 20, V in HJ calls, HERO in CO 3bets A A to 80, folded back to V - he calls fairly quickly.

Flop (180): A 2 4 - V donks out 100 HERO calls
Turn (380): 9 - V x, HERO bets 150
I thought he might have donked out with a PP since I block Ax so heavily, so I wanted to bet smallish to bring him along.
V calls very quickly.
At this point my read is that he probably does have an Ace..

River (680): T V checks
How much would you bet considering everything at this point?


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Comments

  • kaboojiekaboojie Posts: 431Subscriber
    This def looks like Ax. I think we have to size down here and hope for a crying call. I'd bet 200.
  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,862Subscriber
    gree with kaboojie but I'd go slightly higher like 300 ish.
  • StreetFighterStreetFighter Posts: 177Subscriber
    With that read and board coverage,
    isn't checking back on the turn better here?

    As played, I'll propose a different point and keep some better hands in their range.

    Bet big, 650. They should have a good bluff catching hand here, let's look like we are bluffing. Wish that T wasn't a club.

    2 combos of Ac2c Ac4c
    6 sets (44,99)
    3 Ak
    3 AQu
    1 AcJc

    I'm on my phone and not going to math well but let's say they call %100 at a 200... And 2/3 of the time they have a set or aces up that would call 650....650*.66 = 429$ of value. So it's a 230$ more profitable play.

    Against this V who seems tilty, I think they'll be calling with AK some of the time so just betting big seems better.
  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,862Subscriber
    you know what i like it. we block so much Aces so his calling 300 compared to 600 isnt that far off the range.
  • workinghard Posts: 1,573Subscriber
    You have a logical inconsistency in your turn reasoning. You "bet small" thinking he might have led flop w a pp but put him on an Ace when he calls. So which is it? Why does your expectation of what he has change when he calls?
  • ClockClock Posts: 1,121Subscriber
    workinghard said:
    You have a logical inconsistency in your turn reasoning. You "bet small" thinking he might have led flop w a pp but put him on an Ace when he calls. So which is it? Why does your expectation of what he has change when he calls?
    Because of a live read of how he called.
    Ax is obviously very unlikely, so I expected him to really struggle with the call, but based on how he called - I've come to believe that actually he does have an Ace.
  • Maximilian65 Posts: 36Subscriber
    I like the flat on the flop. I think you can size up to $200 on turn into a $380 pot, he's still calling with Ax and if he folds, oh well... you HAVE to build the pot to go for stacks. If he calls turn you now have a $780 pot and he has like $870 behind... the toughest decision in my mind is how much to bet on the river... my gut says $300-$400 he'll feel pretty committed with all his A10+ hands.
  • ClockClock Posts: 1,121Subscriber
    Spoiler:

    I bet 740 thinking that a tilting tourney player might not be able to fold an Ace, but he thought for 10-15 seconds, kinda sighed and mucked :(

  • Oback2 Posts: 206Subscriber
    edited February 23
    I like slightly bigger pre.

    Call flop. Against this atrocious player I’m just looking to bet 3, something like 200 turn, I’d go like 425 river. I think bombing it like you did is a mistake
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