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$2-$3 NLHE - tough spot w/ AK TPTK

irwinbetirwinbet Posts: 383Subscriber
$2-$3 NLHE, $200 - $600

Opponent: young kid UTG. Not much for reads - he's only been at the table for a few orbits. 1 of first hands he played he donked small into about 6 people w/ bottom pair & a gut shot on a 2 tone T76 flop, continued vs preflop opener HU OTT w/ trips & bombed river w/ quads.
Hero: I have a tight but losing image. Got oversetted earlier in the session, which this villain did not see, and have played few hands since.
Effective stack: $700
Preflop: $7 stradle OTB. 3 limpers to me in MP & I raise to $40 with A K There are 4 callers.
Pot: $200
Flop: K Q 2 . Checked to me & I bet $65. He calls and we are heads up.
Pot: $330
Turn: J . He now leads for $100. I decide to call.
Pot: $530
River: 2 . He bets $240. What's your play & why?
Would also appreciate feedback on previous streets as well. Thank you.
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Comments

  • OMGitsWorm Posts: 272SubscriberProfessional
    That’s a decent raise pre and you still get the 4 callers lol gosh you gotta love live poker.

    What position is Vilain? That’s kinda important to assign him a range. I’m thinking he is in the blinds?

    On the flop.
    That board texture smacks a big chunk of your MP rfi range. You should never have a set of 22. I would like to split my range and have different bet sizes for the different combo groups. You have QQ-AA, AKs, AKo, KT-KQs, JTs. (If it’s a crazy game your KTs and QTs May be opened as a partial. But I have given you all these combos)
    You have say 32 combos of value and 4 combos of semi bluff that have good equity.

    The second group or hands will make up middle pair, gut shots and back door flush draws. AQo, AT-AQs, QT-QJ.
    Say 26 combos.

    The other parts of my range 77-JJ, A5s, 98-T9s I’m not Cb this board multi way. Yes it smacks your range but your going to get called as people play so many off suit and suited broadways so it connects with them too.

    I also don’t know how to have the correct ratio of bluffs to value when constructing your range. But in the instance you are weighted to value when you bet this flop.

    In the first group of hands I would take a larger sizing. You don’t want to bomb the flop you need to room to move. But you want to start to put pressure on the field caller who should have a weaker range. Also you don’t want them to peel to easily and cheaply with combos of gut shots and back door flush draws.
    I would size up to $120-$130
    With the second group of hands I would take the $65-$85.

    On the turn.
    This isn’t the best card for your actual hand. I think we can rule out KQ as he may of raised you on the flop. But Vilain does have all the combos suited and off suit now of AT, KJ, QJ and possibly 22. I would like to include QT Up to 44combos.

    If he didn’t donk lead I would be checking back this turn with your hand. I can’t see merit in raising the turn but betting $100 into $330 I think you need to defend with min 77% of your range.
    These are the hands in my range I would be continuing with ATs, AKs, QQ-AA, KJs-KQs, QT-QJs, JTs, AKo. I’m possibly pitching AQs, AJs, AQo so I’m not continuing with to many hands.

    River the pot has been set up for a pot size shove as spr is 1:1. I do think the 2 has scared him and slowed him down. The board has given your hand so much more equity plus your range you arrive to the river with.

    On the river your raising QQ-KK, Possibly ATs, leaves a calling range of AA, KJs,KQs, AKs, AKo.
    The maths is saying your hand has 34% equity IF Vilain is betting his WHOLE range on the river. That includes 9 combos of hands he could be bluffing QJo, QJs, QT and 26 combos of value. But if he is only betting his 26 combos of value ATo, ATs, 22, KJo, KJs your calling range has only 16% equity and you need 24% to defend given the bet size.

    So against players that never bluff or are that unbalanced and bluff that low I fold river.

    But against a good player that should have some bluffs on the river (and all in seems the the correct bet on the river to me)
    Against a good player In this spot and bet size when I look at my calling range at the river it gives me about 23 combos. Min defending is about 69% so 15 combos. KQs, KJs 5 combos are calls, AA 6 combos a call, AKs 3 combos a call. That’s 14 combos. Leaves 1-2 combos of AKo to call at a minium. If I think a player will bluff in this spot at a high frequency and depending on game dynamics I will be calling AKo but I’m not liking it.

    In your game after all this I’m folding river as I don’t think there are to many bluffs. Yes there is a major spaz factor in lower games but also most of the player pool should be playing face up and checking river for show down when the board repeats as you have all the boats now.








  • irwinbetirwinbet Posts: 383Subscriber
    OMGitsWorm said:
    What position is Vilain? That’s kinda important to assign him a range.
    "Opponent: young kid UTG."
  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,828Subscriber
    Fold turn if not river.
  • JLBJ Posts: 158Subscriber
    I’d bet at least half pot on the flop. Have to call turn for that price.

    Tough river spot. You really cannot discount the spazz factor in some of these big pots. One reason I don’t like small flop bets is that your opponents sometimes interpret them as weakness and start spazzing and inadvertently put you in tough spots. Most times in game against a young guy who seems sort of aggro, I’m calling here, but may very well regret it.
  • kaboojiekaboojie Posts: 360Subscriber
    edited March 3
    I like a bigger cbet otf when multiway like this. Sometimes you will get a chain reaction of over callers once the first player calls because the price is too good on smaller cbets. I'd go 125 otf.

    I'd feel better if we didnt have the A in our hand, as we are blocking a lot of V's donk bluff range.

    That said, we are still ahead of QJ and some busted combo draws. We need to be good like 24% of the time here. I think this is a call given the price.
  • kaboojiekaboojie Posts: 360Subscriber
    Sorry, I botched the RE math in my original post. It has since been corrected.
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