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$2/$5 Bad Fold Versus Somewhat Tight 3-Bettor?

ds2uared Posts: 180Subscriber
$2/$5. $1,200 eff. I have been active but have not had to show down much. Villain plays somewhat tricky on the flop but basically has a 99+, AQs+, and AKo 3-betting range.

2 limps. Hero in the HJ raises to $35 with J J. Villain OTB 3-bets to $85. Folds around and Hero calls.

Pot $170. Flop K 7 4. Hero checks. Villain checks.

Pot $170. Turn 9. Hero checks. Villain bets $110. Hero folds.

Is this a fold I should be making at this level? Call and fold to a river bet? Should I be checking this turn? If I should bet, what is my sizing?
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Comments

  • Xboblove Posts: 119Member
    Depends on Villian. Many REGs will check flop bet turn a bad KX hand or 99-QQ, or he could have picked up a draw betting you off QQ or worse with outs against sticky hero's. Worst case is he hit a set of 99s (or loose 2 pair) which will happen some low percentage of time.

    Since we don't hold the blocker Jc, I probably bias toward a fold.
  • the_dude_abides Posts: 325Subscriber
    Yes I’m always calling at least once here, especially when he waits for you to check twice before betting.
  • kaboojiekaboojie Posts: 360Subscriber
    Folding seems a little weak, imo. I think we have to peel here. If we are folding after the flop checks thru, we should prob just fold pre.

    @Xboblove I feel not having the Jc is good for us, as we are not blocking V's flush draw combos, which increases the number of hands we are ahead of.
  • ds2uared Posts: 180Subscriber
    @xboxlove @kaboojie

    The J does not factor as a blocker. The only J he ever has is with the J J combo. He never 3! AJ suited. QJ suited, or TJ suited.
  • kaboojiekaboojie Posts: 360Subscriber
    @ds2uared You would obviously know V better than I would, but if f he can 3! 99, I think he can 3! AJs, QJs.
  • Xboblove Posts: 119Member
    edited March 24
    I am only speaking to your point about making a better hand when villain holds a K. We block any other JX hands so what improves us that also doesn't improve QQ+ a J and one makes a flush. Given a read that villain is tricky, KX hands are at the top of that list as are AA. Villain could be stabbing an AX bluff but in general IMO tricky players are that way because they don't know any other way to extract value. A better player will only be bluffing 1/3 of the time. Granted my way may be overfolding relative to optimal 2/3 pot is value size. To my view, all the read indicators say we're not ahead here and few ways to win.

    Let's go your way and MDF this. You have to call 110 to win 390 you have to defend 28%, which JJ is well within, what are you going to do on the river? Any A, board pair or club puts us in a jam.

    If you told me he was another type of player, then maybe he picked up a draw but I don't see a lot of bluffs here.
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