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Weird hand pre-flop. Lost on the flop 1.5x overbet.

Garland Posts: 155Subscriber
edited March 26 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Location: Casino M8trix
Structure: $2/$3/$5 $600 Max
Effective stack $800.

Pre-flop ($10): I open in LJ with J J to $20 (just as I am about to throw in the chips, fairly tight CO attempts to raise out of turn to $20), CO calls, Button calls, loose passive BB calls.

Flop ($83): 9 7 3. BB leads out for 1.5x pot, $120. Hero ?

This is fairly out of character for him, and I do not read him for any draw. I try to get fold reads from the 2 other players left to act, but don't get anything from that.

Comments

  • Maximilian65 Posts: 34Subscriber
    It sucks that there are 2 people behind you to act, but BB overbet looks a lot like a protective bet with top pair or a pair plus draw like A3ss or the like. I'm not folding yet, I'm calling here. Ideally the other players behind fold and you go heads up to a turn in position and you can assess turn play.
  • kaboojiekaboojie Posts: 360Subscriber
    I would call. Raising seems like it would only get better to call and folding seems a little weak. Call and see what the players behind do and then evaluate turn.
  • Chester Drafman Posts: 36Subscriber
    Gross spot. To me it smells like a protection bet with like 97 or 33. I think if he had 99 or 77 he’d check raise. You have the Js so you block seversl draws. You could call and perhaps fold turn to a large bet on a blank, call on a 3 to counterfeit 97 and watch him like a hawk if a spade falls. If he looks like a puppy in the rain and checks in disgust could consider jamming as a semi bluff. If he has two pair and can’t release it you can win with a J or a spade or a counterfeiting pairing.
  • fishcake Posts: 937Subscriber
    ^ This isn’t a gross spot. You guys overreact too much on here. Call and see what happens.
  • CycleV Posts: 923Subscriber
    Doesn't anybody fold any more? A passive player bombs a wet board. Passive players don't bomb draws, so either we're way behind or our read isn't correct. We're flipping with A3ss obv we have the right price if he will show us that's exactly what he has), and we're crushed by 2p+. We've got two people left to act, one of whom could actually have a bigger PP (again, if our read is correct) or a big enough draw that they can squeeze. We won't like/know where we're at with any spade, a 3, and any card 6 through T; sadly even a J changes the nuts. Let's add aces as bad cards if we thinks he could have Axss. This is over half the deck.

    There's a term called visibility, which basically means do we know where we're at. This hand on this board with this action and not even close to closing the action, has horrible visibility. If this guy can do this with T8o with one spade or 87 with a spade, well he's a fucking baller. And if he has a lol hand like A9hh, well sometimes we get outdumbed. But this isn't a HU pot vs an all in where it's just a math equation. There's a bunch of money left behind and we will be blind the rest of the hand.

    I also disagree that this is a gross spot, cuz for me it's an easy-ish shrug-fold. I go to the casino to get my money in good (or at least mathematically correct), not to gambol gambol.
  • philc Posts: 19SubscriberProfessional
    LOL what a weird spot... Call me a nit but ya I'm with CycleV with the fold on this one. Definitely agree with your 'visibility' point.

    Last to act, sure call and see a turn. 2 players behind, one with an uncapped range because we think he tried to raise pre, this is a very gambly call. We have the worst relative position possible if anyone else calls, and if anyone does call behind us then we probably either are already not good, or spades are bad, or a J is bad...Maybe its a slighly +EV call but idk.

    With this action it's likely that BB wants to get in his stack and there are very few runouts when I'm happy about that.. I see people doing this with things like A9/A3ss/FDs but also more commonly with 99/77/33/97. No matter what, we're gonna see a large turn bet (at least in my experience).

    I guess it's a different thing if you can channel your inner David Chan and get some crazy soul reads.. If the players behind you look like they're getting ready to fold already that changes things. If you start to cut out raising chips and they don't look happy that also changes things. But yeah I guess I'm just a nit but I'll just be patient and find a better spot where I'm more sure of my spot. I like my visibility.
  • Garland Posts: 155Subscriber
    Spoiler:
    I want to thank CycleV and philc for illuminating the rationale of a fold. I was fairly sure it was the correct move, but couldn't quite explain it as well as you two. Results: I paused for about 30 seconds and folded. Everyone else folded. BB flashed a 9
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