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$1-$3, flop draw as preflop raiser in MW pot

irwinbetirwinbet Posts: 383Subscriber
$1-$3, $300 cap.

Opponent: recreational reg in the BB. played with him a couple times before but no real reads.
Effective Stack: $275
Preflop: I open to $12 in MP with 8 7 . SB & BB call. We are 3 handed.
Pot: $35
Flop: A T 6. BB leads for $20. What's your play & why?
I wasn't sure if I should raise or call. Ultimately decided on a call. SB also calls.
Pot: $95
Turn: 8. BB bets $100 with about $150 behind. What's your play & why?

Comments

  • GlennJones Posts: 147Subscriber
    edited March 30
    Hmm. $100 is a big bet for a recreational player to be making in this spot. The other problem with a lot of recs (especially if older) is that they don't 3 bet AK/AQ as much because they're playing make a hand poker. Is this player capable of bluffing with the nut flush draw (Ksxs)?

    I think I would puke fold. We have as many as 15 outs, but not all of those are clean. And then the question is will we get paid if the front door draw completes on the river? Based on the $100 bet, I'm not sure we have a lot of FE if we were to jam turn. But, as I've said before, I'm a nit.

    Inerested in other people's thoughts here.
  • LessIsMore Posts: 19Subscriber
    Well, it sure doesn’t look like he’s folding. Consider this to be an all-in type situation. He’s put half his stack in. Not sure what kind of player we have here, but let’s assume that an 8, spade, or 9 pulls you ahead. So, 14 outs (approx 28% equity give or take a bit). If you assume he’s not folding, you’re risking $100 to ultimately win a pot that will be $450 on the river after he puts the rest in (I’m not considering the third player for simplicity here). If you brick, you can fold and not be forced to put in the last $150, but it doesn’t look like he’s folding here regardless. You’re getting a ridiculous price so it looks like a call and evaluate river. He will have a 1/2 PSB on river before a shove, the reason I assume he’s not folding
  • CycleV Posts: 970Subscriber
    LessIsMore said:
    Well, it sure doesn’t look like he’s folding. Consider this to be an all-in type situation. He’s put half his stack in. Not sure what kind of player we have here, but let’s assume that an 8, spade, or 9 pulls you ahead. So, 14 outs (approx 28% equity give or take a bit). If you assume he’s not folding, you’re risking $100 to ultimately win a pot that will be $450 on the river after he puts the rest in (I’m not considering the third player for simplicity here). If you brick, you can fold and not be forced to put in the last $150, but it doesn’t look like he’s folding here regardless. You’re getting a ridiculous price so it looks like a call and evaluate river. He will have a 1/2 PSB on river before a shove, the reason I assume he’s not folding
    This is imo exactly how you should calculate your implied odds
  • GlennJones Posts: 147Subscriber
    LessIsMore said:
    Not sure what kind of player we have here, but let’s assume that an 8, spade, or 9 pulls you ahead. So, 14 outs (approx 28% equity give or take a bit).
    Oh - yeah. I want to correct my earlier post and remove my comment about clean outs. They are pretty much all clean unless he has a set here. Brain fart in my earlier post.
  • irwinbetirwinbet Posts: 383Subscriber
    What would you do on the flop?
  • LessIsMore Posts: 19Subscriber
    GlennJones said:
    LessIsMore said:
    Not sure what kind of player we have here, but let’s assume that an 8, spade, or 9 pulls you ahead. So, 14 outs (approx 28% equity give or take a bit).
    Oh - yeah. I want to correct my earlier post and remove my comment about clean outs. They are pretty much all clean unless he has a set here. Brain fart in my earlier post.
    The “not sure what kind of player we have here” comment was directed towards villain. I was not insulting your intelligence. Lol
  • LessIsMore Posts: 19Subscriber
    irwinbet said:
    What would you do on the flop?
    Clear call. You’ll have plenty of strong Ax that would call and draws that want to see turns. On a more coordinated board I work in more raises because there are more 2P+ combos you can represent
  • kaboojiekaboojie Posts: 360Subscriber
    I think the flop is a pretty mandatory raise with a big draw like this and no sdv. I would make it 80. If either V 3 bets the flop, I'm just going with it. If he calls the flop raise, I prob just jam as long as the board doesnt pair ott.

    AP - Turn is a little tricky. We likely have 30ish% equity and need 34% so we almost have direct odds to call. With implied odds, I dont think we can we can fold. If we jam, V is getting 3:1 He will be getting great odds on a call but, he may be fairly weak here and still fold. (from my experience, donk leads are often weak top pair or a draw) He may have a strong here, but it's not as likely, as most players would check raise or slow play strong hands here. Also, this board doesnt rep a lot of strong hands for V's call range other than 66, AT and maybe TT at partials. I'm not thrilled about it, but I would jam turn.

  • CycleV Posts: 970Subscriber
    Flop play is based on whether you think BB can fold Ax. His bet is probably (but not always) a see-where-I'm-at type of bet, and your raise should scare off anyone behind with less than 2p or a monster draw themselves. Many recs won't want to call two big bets (flop, turn), but if he's a sticky type I am fine with just calling.
  • GlennJones Posts: 147Subscriber
    LessIsMore said:
    [quote="GlennJones;117907"][quote="LessIsMore;117900"]

    The “not sure what kind of player we have here” comment was directed towards villain. I was not insulting your intelligence. Lol
    Not taken that way at all! I had brain cramped earlier - I was thinking that some of the spade outs were not clean against made hands like Ax or two pair. But they are unless villain has a set, and then I don't think he leads flop. Maybe I need to make sure I have the first cup of coffee in before I start replying
    :cool:
  • rappcity15 Posts: 40Subscriber
    When BB donks here it feels like a weak A. This seems like a good spot to raise the flop. You have no showdown value and a huge draw that could put a ton of pressure on 1 pair hands. Plus you could get the SB to fold a better hand as well. Think about the value hands that you might want to raise with can have facing this donk bet. AK, AQ, AJ, AT, A6s, AA, TT, 66. 87s is a perfect combo draw to mix in as a bluff with value. I would size it to $80 on the flop and jam most turns that isn't an A.
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