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$2/$5 Facing a Donk Bet w/ TPTK

JredA Posts: 38Subscriber
edited April 15 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
$2/$5 Local Casino

I have been playing for about an hour and the table has been pretty passive so far. No 3-bets and lot's of limp calling.

Main villain in the hand has been one of the limper's. I have seen him limp fold and limp call, but not limp/raise. I have also seen him defend his BB often.

I only saw him showdown one hand in which he opened from UTG2 w/ AQo. Got called by the BTN. And proceed to ch the flop on a KT4 board. BTN ch back. The turn went ch/ch on a 9 (no flush draw) and then he led for 3/4 pot on the J river. BTN raised and villain 4 bet and got called by the BTN. BTN mucked.

Effective stack is villains stack at $600.

I open on the BTN to $20 w/ A K

SB calls. V calls in the BB.

Flop ($60) = A Q 3

SB ch. V leads for $45. I call. SB folds.

Turn ($150) = 6

V $75. I call.

River ($300) = 9

V $175.

Call or fold?
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Comments

  • StreetFighterStreetFighter Posts: 121Subscriber
    Not a lot of bluffs here for them on any street, and it ooks like Q9 or A9 on the end. I think you can raise/fold flop to 150.
  • rappcity15 Posts: 39Subscriber
    I think raising flop is pretty cool here in position. This lead is indicative of top pair or flush draw. He really should be 3betting AA, QQ, AQ so his only nutted hands are 33 and A3, which you block.

    Ap, all the draws missed and there is not too many value hands. A3, A6, A9, 33. You block a lot of that range. You don't have a spade in your hand so that's cool. Getting a price I think call with AK here.

    Also to note, the bb shouldn't have a leading range on this board texture so the fact that he did lead makes me think hes not a strong player. That intern makes me thing there is a spazz factor involved here
  • ds2uared Posts: 184Subscriber
    River should be $300, I believe. That makes it a call. Spades bricked out. He could have A9, A6, or A3. Less likely he has AQ, but possible (both because he might have 3bet preflop and/or because he might be inclined to check back top 2 as opposed to top and bottom. But everything bricked out and you're getting almost 3 to 1.
  • BartBart Posts: 5,737AdministratorLeadPro
    I cant make folds like this at this level. As played call the river and I can definitely see merits to raising the flop. Bart
  • Arenzano Posts: 1,386Subscriber
    Based on your description of the villain, which appears to be very passive, I think calling river or folding river may have merits.

    He is not likely to be triple barreling any draws, so that just leaves value. Seems like a fold to me, but if you think he is capable doing this with single paired Ax then call.

    AQ seems to be an in between hand where passive players will call with it preflop and more aggressive players will tend to raise in this configuration. He is closing the action, so calling to see a flop might be acceptable for him.

    As to his flop action, based on your description, do we really believe this villain is leading out with hands like AJ - A6? Or is he more likely to check call? I think when this villain leads into the field, and goes for 3 streets, he is doing so AQ, A3, or 33.
  • irwinbetirwinbet Posts: 383Subscriber
    I think raising the flop would be best here & you can easily fold if raised. I think it's more likely he's overvaluing a worse hand than taking this line with something that has you beat. If he just calls then you can narrow his range to a worse A or a draw. I can't fold on the river as played.
  • JredA Posts: 38Subscriber
    edited April 16
    My thought process was identical to Arenzano's response.

    I had seen nothing to believe villain was capable of running a 3-street bluff here and the only piece of information I had was how passively he played the AQ hand. I just had a hard time believing he was going 3 streets with a bluff. His demeanor also seemed like he was very comfortable. Each bet he made was instantaneous with little to no thought.

    So he was either over-valuing a hand like A9-AJ or he was betting 3 streets for value with a hand that beat me (33, AQ, QQ, maybe even Q3s since he was calling so wide from the BB).

    On the river I need roughly 27% to call.

    If I give villain just a few bluffs (say K J and K T ) along with only 2 combos of AJ I am getting the right odds to call.

    In game I folded and villain racked up and left not too much longer after the hand, but I would have to be 100% correct that he was never doing this with AJ or bluffing for this to be correct and I am not sure that was the case.

    I also agree with the masses that a check raise against this villain on the flop would be a fine play. Lately I have fallen into the trap of studying and reading more game theory based play and I believe it has shifted my mind away from exploitative thinking/play and I need to get back to thinking that way as the player pool I face is so exploitable. This hand is a prime example.

    I could raise to $130-$150, fold to a re-raise or evaluate turn and get more value going to the turn/river against this opponent if he decides to call the raise. Raising both builds the pot if villain has a hand like AJ or AT and protects against draws if they are in his range.

    Thanks for the feedback guys.
  • mrage Posts: 26Subscriber
    I'm mostly calling down in this spot. One intangible at play is that some people do some weird spazzy stuff in the blinds. Especially blind vs blind, but also blind vs button.
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