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$1/$2 Did I lose value with a turned boat?

I started the hand with about $500. Main villain is in MP with $350 effective. Played with him before and he is able to think beyond the two cards in his hand. Rest of the table in the hand range from a couple spewy fish to tighter regs.

I'm in the BB with 7 5. 5 players limp, SB completes and I check.

$13 in the pot and the flip is 7 5 2. SB leads for $5. First discussion point between myself and my friends became should I call or raise. I choose to call because of the wet, connected nature of the board, how few good turn cards I had and how many players behind there were with undefined hands there were. If I was closer to being last to act I would lean toward raising. Thoughts?

V puts in a raise to $16, SB calls, I call. Because of my history with the V he has to have either a combo draw or a set. I've rarely seen him make this move with the combo draw so I weight him to having 22 since I block the other sets. I have a plan for a lot of cards that may come.

$55 in the pot. Turn is 5. SB check, I check, V bets $40, SB folds, I call. I felt a raise here would be too strong. It would look like I only have larger boats than 2s full. I know he'd never bets a draw a 2nd time on a pairing card. He isn't that type. I think he might even fold 2s here if I made it $80-$100. I know other players would never fold a boat at this level.

$135 in the pot. River is 9. I bet $90. He tank calls. I show first, he then shows his 22. Should I have checked again to allow a chance to check raise?
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Comments

  • PokerShaman Posts: 40Subscriber
    bubba316999 said:
    I choose to call because of the wet, connected nature of the board, how few good turn cards I had and how many players behind there were with undefined hands there were.
    These are all reasons to raise, IMHO.
    by 1Sonny
  • LatvianMissile Posts: 37Subscriber
    Flop: I would raise because it's wet and you'll get callers looking for draws. I would make it $20. Calling with top 2 isn't a bad play after the V raises, but I think a re-raise would be the play here because any 4, 6 or spade could kill the action.
    Turn: This is a definite raise, we have to try to set it up so we are getting it all in on the river. Raise to $120 should be the play and that sets up a river jam.
    River: As played, I think a pot bet is the correct play here. The only straight is 86, a 5 probably bets, but a missed draw will check back as will any top pair or over pair.
  • CraftBeerWizard Posts: 25Subscriber
    edited April 17
    Without knowing the villain and with so many limpers, here are my thoughts.

    Flop - I think a call here is fine. You are OOP to 5 players who can put you in a bad spot with a lot of turn cards. No reason to bloat the pot. How many players were in between you and villain? His flop raise takes on a lot of different meaning depending on how many opponents were left to act after he raises. If V had 3 people left to act when he raised, it makes his raise look incredibly strong.

    Turn - You have to x/r here, IMO. Trips can x/r here for value and protection, not just boats. (Being in the BB, you can have all the trip combos) Again, if Villain had 3 people left to act when he raised and now he's betting the turn, he's incredibly strong and it's time to get as much value as possible.

    Make it $120, and if he calls, you're built the pot up for a nice river jam! By check-calling, you either have to lead the river (which looks incredibly strong) or try to x/r the river (which looks even stronger and you can wind up losing a street of value if he checks)

    River - River is fine as played, but I'd personally rather x/r the turn and bet the river.

    My $0.02

    For future posts, don't post the results of the hand until after you've received comments from others! (hard to not be results-oriented with analysis)
  • rappcity15 Posts: 39Subscriber
    check/raising this river all day as played. Think about his range on the river here.

    Value: 22, 77 and 99 at some small frequency I imagine, As5s, 8s6s, 9s8s, and then has a lot of missed fds that you could take this line with.

    My point is V comes to the river with a ton of hands that are going to have to bet the river either as a bluff or value bet. V is going to call a c/r with all of his value hands that you beat. If you lead out V is going to have to fold hands like fds that he might have bluffed river with. c/r seems like the play to me
  • bubba316999 Posts: 7Member
    CraftBeerWizard said:

    For future posts, don't post the results of the hand until after you've received comments from others! (hard to not be results-oriented with analysis)
    Thanks for the comment. I will absolutely keep this in mind when posting in the future.
  • rappcity15 Posts: 39Subscriber
    Really interested to see what @Bart thinks the play is on the river here
  • BartBart Posts: 5,792AdministratorLeadPro
    First of all, you want to raise the flop for most of the reasons why you chose to call.

    As crazy as it sound I actually prefer leading the turn as opposed to checking if I had just overcalled on the flop. You get into a situation where you don't know if the IP will bet on the turn, and if he does I would be concerned that if I check raised turn he may fold out a 9.

    River is tricky as played, because so many players check behind with hands. I don't hate the river lead and I don't think it is as clear cut as him having super thick value or bluffs (in which case checking the river would be best). Bart
  • bubba316999 Posts: 7Member
    I'll admit my play this time was shaped by my knowledge of V's play and the table dynamic.

    If I did raise to $20 on the flop and V makes it ~$65, what would most people do and assume about V's hand?

    Turn I was way too worried about scaring off my customer.
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