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5/5 Should I be folding AA to 1k turn bet?

Brickowski Posts: 36Subscriber
edited April 24 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
This hand is from a 5/5 uncapped game I played a couple of days ago...

Stacks are ~1500$ effective

UTG open limps and it folds to BTN who raises to 25$
I'm in BB with A A and I re-raise to 100$
both UTG and BTN call

Flop 305$:
9 6 2

I lead for half pot (150$) and UTG raises to 350$
BTN Folds and I call

Turn 1005$

9 6 2 J

I check to utg and he quickly shoves 1k in chips into the pot in green and black chips.

my first thought is that this guy is in his mid 50's and seemed to be on the more conservative side. I have only played with him for an hour or 2 so it is hard to say what he is capable of. I don't see many players firing 1k turn bets without made hands or really big draws at this level. I think it is very unlikely that he is over valuing QQ or KK. Not sure how many draws he is willing to semi-bluff with.

my second thought is I just watched a doug polk clip were he is again talking about not over adjusting to players and making too many exploitative or unbalanced folds. I do not think I ever really have much of a better hand to call down than AA without a diamond- maybe 99 if i dont bet/3bet him on flop or JJ if I called his min raise on flop. So if I fold AA here I am pretty much folding everything to this bet.

Not sure if that matters in this spot though as I don't think this particular opponent is aware that I am having that narrow of a range and going to try and push me off hands.

Any thoughts or criticism appreciated

Thanks

Comments

  • Geet Posts: 30Subscriber
    I think I would reraise the flop. What hands would he limp call a 100$ raise preflop with preflop raiser to act behind? I think may be some trap hands - ( QQ, KK, AA, AK )or (99,10,JJ) which I think is less likely. People usually dont tend to trap with QQ or KK, feels like he may have AA or AKd. I would call the bet as played on turn. Interesting hand.
  • LatvianMissile Posts: 37Subscriber
    I think this is a fold. What is he limp-calling preflop? Probably low pockets, right? From his prospective it's: Bet-3B-then he cold calls, and the player behind him calls. Then on the flop he's facing a half-pot bet. You look really strong here with a 3B and half pot bet. Now he could have diamonds on the flop, but is he really raise-shoving on the pre flop 3-bettor here?
    I wouldn't think that happens enough for a call. Now AJdd or maybe KJdd could do this... but is he really limp-calling a 3-bet with a player to act behind him preflop with those hands, or any suited diamonds?
  • PokerShaman Posts: 40Subscriber
    To zeroth order, we have one pair, and this is live poker. In general we don't want to stack off with one pair in live poker. We want to make the other guy stack off with one pair.

    We are getting 2:1 for our call. Is our hand good more than 1/3 of the time?

    Villain has three each combos of 99, 66, and 22. We need to find five or more combos of bluffs for a call to be profitable. Would they play 87 this way? Diamond draws?

    Absent a read, I think this is a fold, but it wouldn't take much of a read for me to call. The SPR is tiny.
  • Superfly Posts: 173Subscriber
    I would make crying fold here vs 50 something conservative unknown. If he was in his 20s with backpack and ear buds, half his head shaved, the other half brill creamed to perfection, and had a sullen, smug look on his face, I might call. Against a conventional rec, this looks like a set all day.
  • Geet Posts: 30Subscriber
    edited April 23
    Do you think a conventional rec player in 50s limps and calls 100$ 3bet preflop with 99 66 or 22?
  • Superfly Posts: 173Subscriber
    @Geet. Admittedly most live recs might not limp call $100 3B with PP. But 99 seems possible, and this line just doesn’t seem like a bluff. But I could be wrong.
    by 1Geet
  • StreetFighterStreetFighter Posts: 145Subscriber
    If you want to make hero folds, at least do it with the A

    This is a call. Sorry if they turned it with JJ. They'll have KK, QQ, TT, A K, A Q, 99 ( K Q, 8 7, 66) next time.
    by 1Geet
  • StreetFighterStreetFighter Posts: 145Subscriber
    43% equity VS KK, JJ, 99, 66 A K
  • CycleV Posts: 861Subscriber
    Geet said:
    Do you think a conventional rec player in 50s limps and calls 100$ 3bet preflop with 99 66 or 22?
    IMO it's much more likely he has 66 or 22 than a hand like 87s. And JJ makes lots of sense.

    Bart is fond of saying that recs don't start a semibluff ott. If they have this type of bluff in their arsenal, they'd do it starting otf.

    @streetfighter if you're giving him 66 you should give him 22.
    by 1Geet
  • StreetFighterStreetFighter Posts: 145Subscriber
    @CycleV if they have JJ they have QQ. I left out 22 and QQ to say they might get here with QQ and play it this way 1/2 the time.
  • Superfly Posts: 173Subscriber
    I think it’s highly unlikely V reraises with JJ on the flop after limp calling 3 bettor pre. I suppose it’s possible he might play KK this way, but given his post-flop aggressiveness, I’m sticking with my read that this is flopped set, probably 99 or 66.

    @Brickowski, how’d it play out??
  • Brickowski Posts: 36Subscriber
    edited April 24
    I ended up folding... not sure what he had he didnt show.

    btw i dont think this guy ( or most players) would have KK, QQ, or JJ in this spot. He really didnt strike me as the type of player to overvalue his hand. This is one of the main reasons I folded, as I think he is just calling my flop bets a ot of the time with his one pair hands and when he does min raise them he is going to be cautious on the turn after I call. Also I feel like a lot of passive players limp small-medium PP from up front. It was an aggressive 10-handed table and he was utg. The 1k bet just seems so strong from this type of player - though maybe he is aware of this

    Thanks for input all
    by 1Geet
  • BartBart Posts: 5,794AdministratorLeadPro
    His sizing seems pretty large for a set type of hand. I like @streetfighter point about equity. However, if you take KK out of the equation you are going to be crushed, even if you add in a couple of flush draws. Its definitely close and strange. Having the Ad makes this a much easier fold on the turn. Bart
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