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Top Set On.The.Flop

5-5 very loose.game
5 limps.i makes.it.pot 35 everybody call. 6 ways.to.the flop- pot is.210
i.have.QQ59ddd.
flop.is QT2r , a loose but an avrage.player.bet donk.in the.middle to.140 a co fish call and.i.makes.is 700 he.calls fast.
pot.is 1600 and i got 1800 behind
turn.is kx check.,i.check
river is.A he.bets 900 and.i.folded

did i.play.it good?

Comments

  • High__Rolla Posts: 775Subscriber
    Which player called your raise on the flop? The donk bettor or the caller in between?
  • davidbar Posts: 55Subscriber
    The donk bettor
  • TerpHimselfTerpHimself Posts: 295Subscriber
    Need stack sizes here to get a better handle on the turn and river spots. That being said when the turn is checked to you, hands like KJ9x are a big part of his range with no FD out there. Also many players will take this line with QTxx or 22xx. I think you're not getting check raised here by AJxx often enough to not pot the turn when checked to.

    OTR you lose to a live J and that's the end of it. Fold is fine.
  • davidbar Posts: 55Subscriber
    pot.is 1600 and i got 1800 behind
  • CycleV Posts: 1,102Subscriber
    @TerpHimself Can I ask about preflop? If we flop top set there is an overcard 41% of the time. If we flop an overpair our hand is likely way behind. And other than QQ we have almost nothing going on with this hand. In a game where you have almost no pf FE, is this a raise, even on the button?
  • TerpHimselfTerpHimself Posts: 295Subscriber
    Yep, the first thing I thought when I read about the raise is "well that's a mistake", but then got tangled up in thinking about turn and river spots. This hand is never a raise with no fold equity, all that does is increase your variance by lowering the SPR of the hand. I'd really like a better SPR situation with that K on the turn, b/c now any bet commits us completely to the pot.

    So as played, given the info that we've got an SPR of barely over 1 on the turn, I would pot, our V would call, and we get beat on the river.
    by 1CycleV
  • High__Rolla Posts: 775Subscriber
    Preflop - I agree with Terp and would just limp here. I'd need more connected queens to raise.

    Flop - seems fairly standard. You said he calls fast which makes me want to discount him having middle or even bottom set. It seems like he might think about his options longer with those hands.

    Turn - The K is not a good card, but not as bad as an A or 9 since these would fill the most common OESD of KJxx. For him to make a straight, he would need something else going on with AJxx or J9xx. I suppose some random KKxx could occasionally show-up here too.

    Since there is no BDFD, there is less of a need to bet for protection. You could still get value from hands like two pair+SD or a lower set (but I discount those based on flop quick call). If we ignore any chance he folds, you need to have >35% equity versus his range to get it in on the turn. Surely he will fold some of the time. So, I don't think potting here is ever bad, but this is a close spot for me. I'd lean heavily on player tendencies. Do you have any reads on him? Some players are almost always leading here with AJxx to avoid giving a free card. They might be more apt to check J9xx being unsure.
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