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facing river overbet in 3-bet pot oop

$1/$3 $450 eff.

I have 9 T in mp. One limp. I raise to 15. Next to act unknown villain makes it 50. Folds back to me and I call.

I think this is a marginal call. I justified it in the moment that we were deep enough. I'd prefer to be deeper as per Bart's 15,25,35. I'd also prefer to have position. But I make the call.

Flop is 7 T 4

I check. villain bets 65. I call.

Any merits to Xraise here? When I first sat down this villain went to showdown after 3-betting with AKo. Small sample size but since 3-betting is pretty rare in this game, I have him on a pretty standard 3-bet range of QQ+ and AK, AQs+. Maybe JJ+.

8 I check with the intention of x-raising now that I have top pair and am open ended. He checks back.

Pot is $230 heading to river.

9 Diamonds miss. I x planning to call. villain tanks and bets $300 which is the max bet in this game.

There is a one liner to a J, obviously but I don't have him with many jacks. It's pretty standard for players to just call with J's in this game. I don't expect him to show up with any unpaired Jacks.
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Comments

  • alecspade Posts: 69Subscriber
    Preflop is close, can't really blame you for calling but yeah, in a game where 3! is rare, that range you assigned is probably accurate. With this runout I think you just have to call it off, you lose to JJ and maybe exactly A J
  • Garland Posts: 261Subscriber
    Pre-flop: Fold to 3-bet. Against the range you've given villain and being out of position, it can't be worth playing long term.

    Flop: How did the post-flop betting pattern go with his 3-bet AKo hand? If it checked down to the river, then he's very weighted to overpairs on the flop. If so, I would consider making a weak-tight fold on the flop. There are really no merits to x-raising as he's always calling with better and folding out worse.

    Turn: No merits to x-raising. Same reason as the flop.

    River: I'd consider a very small value bet hoping to get called by a curious A-high or tricky over-pairs playing pot control. As played, he's representing JJ exactly (maaaybe A J?). Try to get a live read and act accordingly?
    by 1Sonny
  • JS84 Posts: 31Subscriber
    Folding pre is best. You're getting like 12:1, when you really need 25:1.

    I think the key street here is the turn. What is he checking back here? Is this type of player checking back an overpair? I think most players are going to bet their overpairs until there is an overcard or the board gets really scary - and I don't think the 8 will make JJ+ check in position here.

    That said, I think I probably make a call here. Perhaps he does have AJ from time to time (if he even 3-bets that), but I think he's probably just got two overs and is trying to push you off the hand since you check all 3 streets.
    by 1CycleV
  • symposiast Posts: 14Subscriber
    Agree on all points. This guy is not a reg in this card room so I didn’t have a good read on his 3! range. He showed up w K J
  • symposiast Posts: 14Subscriber
    Is that a reasonable 3! LJ vs mp?
  • JS84 Posts: 31Subscriber
    I don't think it's terrible, but I also don't think it's great. You guys are only 150bb deep, so the 3-bet is about 15% of the effective stack. I generally don't see too much 3-betting with hands like that at 1/3, and I think this is generally a call from most players. Maybe he thought you were opening too many hands and thought you were wide?
  • Sonny Posts: 390Subscriber
    edited May 1
    A lot of the points discussed here are fine and valid, but might not necessarly apply to players at the $1/3 level. They just aren't thinking this way.

    The river play is probably all you need know to make your decision. At this level, almost no one is betting $300 unless they have a monster. Thats a lot of actual dollars to a $1/3 player (or most people in the US for that matter). Espically with this board. Thats pretty much it. I'm supprised he only had JJ. Normally at this level this bet size is going to be QJ. If you always folded In this spot you would be coming out way a head. I would for sure fold a 6, and might even fold a Jack because I think at best its a chop and at worst you loose it all.

    In the inatial post you say that a lot of players at this level just flat JJ pre and dont 3 bet. If thats the case and they are that tight, then its even more of a reason to realize that players in this player pool are not betting that large without a very strong hand.
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