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$1/$2 River play OOP vs call station

$1/$2/$4 UTG straddle is on this hand
Sands Casino, PA

Villain is effective stack with $362. He has been very much call station middle-weak hands. Raises stronger hands but at times get caught doing this with 1 pair, weaker kicker on the river.

Hero is MP with 9 9, opens to $16
Main villain calls from HJ. CO & BT also call.

Flop ($64) 4 ways is 9 J K. Hero bets $35, V calls, other folds.
At this point I figure non- QT, JJ & KK are likely not out there as they would all want to put in a raise to protect against flush draws plus I figure KK would usually 3 bet pre. I figure I'm, looking at AK, AJ, 2 pair, or Ax especially AQ or AT. Basically I feel I'm way ahead.

Turn ($134) is A . Board is 9 J K A . Hero bets $75, V calls.
I feel this changes nothing about me still being way ahead. Same straight is there but I still don't feel he has it. More 2 pairs are likely. If he is chasing a flush he likely got top pair now to go with it.

River ($284) is K . Board is 9 J K A K. V's effective stack is now $236.

Suggestion on how I should play this hand (especially the river) and if my line of thinking is off throughout. I will post the results and what my circle thinks later.
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Comments

  • JoneseyJonesey Posts: 118Subscriber
    Nothing V has done has indicated the strength you would expect from AA, KK, AK, JJ, or maybe even KJ. I think it's reasonable to expect he would have raised with those hands either pre-flop or by the turn (maybe with the exception of KJ if he was slow-playing the flop and got nervous on the turn). You beat many hands V would call a big bet with on the river (AJ, AQ, diamonds), and if he has KJ or has slow-played a better hand than yours, you're not folding anyway. So even if you check, you've already lost to his all-in if he's ahead, and you win more if he would call with the flush but not bet if you check. I think you go all in. Like Bart says, go back to the pre-flop action and analyze that. KJ (and QT diamonds) is your only real danger of having been a pre-flop call instead of a raise, and there are many more hands you beat V will call with.
  • CycleV Posts: 1,096Subscriber
    I think you did a good job of thinking about V's range, but I think you did a bad job of bet sizing, starting on the flop. On a flop that wet, there actually aren't all that many weak hands V can call with. So you need to get fat value from him, when he likely has at a minimum a pair+gutshot. Every K is going to call, some J will call, and all FD will call. And the great thing is that we don't block any of this range. Even something like QJ, if it's going to call a bet at all, will likely only call on the flop. You said he's a station so he certainly can call with a pair+gutshot. So $55 minimum, I'd go $60 but that's splitting hairs.

    Same logic on the turn. His weak stuff will fold to any bet, his better stuff may now have improved to a stronger hand. So again, size up.

    The sizing down idea is best saved for heads up (or 3 handed) when it's a dry board. If we have KK or 77 on Q72r, we want to keep his range wide, as there aren't a lot of strong hands he can have. We bet 1/2 pot or less there in order to get calls from ace high or PP. On wet boards like your post, he either whiffed completely or he has something he'll like, in which case we want to shovel money in the middle.
  • Latrell1515 Posts: 235Subscriber
    I'm betting to a $150-$175 on river.
  • bubba316999 Posts: 15Member
    I bet 1/2 pot on the flop because of the other two villains involved. I felt because of what I saw the CO would flat JJ in that situation preflop and the BT could easily call with all of the QT because of the odds and how he was splashing pots. I did not think betting large there was needed.

    On the turn I completely agree I sized it wrong once I got heads up with this villain. It should have been $100-$120 to setup an easier river shove.

    My local friends are split on the river. The one who plays for a living believes the K is a bad card and thinks check call a reasonable bet, fold to a shove is the right line. The other who deals and plays thinks shoving the river is best.

    Spoiler:

    I ended up betting $125. V states that he is confused but then goes all in. I call. He turns over K 9 .


  • ds2uared Posts: 372Subscriber
    @CycleV has it right. $60 otf. Pot $184 ott. You can bet $100 here, and have $180 left to get it in on the river into a $384 pot.

    Bummer on the cooler.
  • CycleV Posts: 1,096Subscriber
    bubba316999 said:
    I bet 1/2 pot on the flop because of the other two villains involved. I felt because of what I saw the CO would flat JJ in that situation preflop and the BT could easily call with all of the QT because of the odds and how he was splashing pots. I did not think betting large there was needed.
    So you have a monster but didn't bet a lot cuz it's not the nuts? I say this with tenderness, honestly, as I was once a weak-tight soul such as you may be, but that is some weak-tight thinking right there. I was scared, tight, I knew how to think about poker but I was a mark to anyone who knew what to look for (and even the bad old regs had seen my type often enough to outplay me sometimes).

    I don't think I've given this advice before, but you really out to pay the $40 a month and subscribe. Heck, the first month is free. And I swear, in the first month, assuming you play 1-2 times a week, you will have MULTIPLE spots where you make an extra value bet (called "thin bets" around here) that you wouldn't have made before. You will net much more than $40 a month, your game and your confidence will soar, you will be on your way to crushing (or at least enjoying the game more).
  • BeauMoore Posts: 10Subscriber
    Gotta agree with Cycle. Sure, Vs can have stronger hands than us, but they can have a lot of weaker hands that will a $55-60 flop bet. There's 16 QT, 3 JJ. There's also, 15 2 pair combos. 12 KQ, 12 KT, 9 AK if he doesnt 3b that. You're probably getting calls from QJ and JT also so that's 12 and 12. And about 15 flush draws and 4 T8s.

    So youre dominated by 3 combos, have 20% vs the nuts thats 16 combos. Then there's at least 90 combos that you'll get value from and deny equity.
  • BartBart Posts: 5,949AdministratorLeadPro
    Because you have less then a pot sized bet just open shove the river. V1 really should have a K here or a flush thats going to be calling a large bet sizing. If I was deeper and playing a little bit of a higher level I feel like this is a great hand to check raise the river. SO much of V1's range will be betting.
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