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5/T - Multiway Overpair on Ugly Board

dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 1,983SubscriberProfessional
5/10 at Bellagio. Hero in CO ($2400) with TcTd opens to $40. Solid button, obvious pro (covers all) calls. Weak/tight shorty ($400) in SB calls. Huge spot ($1500) in BB calls.

Pot $160. Flop 5h6s7s. SB checks. BB (huge spot) donks $80. Raise, Call, or Fold? If we raise, sizing?
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Comments

  • raspaz Posts: 9Member
    Would generally iso for value vs spot and equity denial vs reg.

    Don't think we need to go too large here to achieve our objective, probably 200ish with the intention of folding vs bb or spot 3b

    Assuming sb folds i'd be betting most brick turns around 3/4 to get value from pair + sds, as well as fds with the intention to check back majority of rivers.

    If sb cold calls I'd be extremely cautious on turns.
  • unomaas Posts: 7Subscriber
    edited May 13
    Raise to $250. Shorty is gonna get it in with anything that connects the board. If he puts $400, main villain can only continue with sets or if he just flopped the world, A8s?
  • Piggy Posts: 94Subscriber
    Can we raise small to try and trap the BB if the short SB shoves? SB has 400 and night check-jam anything that connects including all draws. He has 400 and the current bet is 80. Say we make it 240 (or less), SB ships it, and BB calls, we could re-ship on him. If he’s “a huge spot” would he ever be sandbag a set or the nuts?
  • dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 1,983SubscriberProfessional
    What would we do with other parts of our range? AsAc? AsKs? 8h8d? Do we have multiple sizings with different parts of our range?
  • StreetFighterStreetFighter Posts: 145Subscriber
    edited May 13
    dpbuck said:
    What would we do with other parts of our range? AsAc? AsKs? 8h8d? Do we have multiple sizings with different parts of our range?
    I don't think we need multiple sizings because of the short stack. I'm thinking that AsKs, AsAx (infrequent call), are really nice to call with here and the rest a small 3x raise. Calling it off VS. short stack shove with everything and folding to a 3! From the donk with our weaker holdings. We have to always have the best draw or hand if they don't put in the 3rd bet right?
  • Superfly Posts: 170Subscriber
    edited May 13
    Hi Dana, I think this very wet low board hits the callers much harder than the PFR. I don’t think you have any range advantage multiway. So I would just call to avoid bloating the pot and to see what BTN and SB elect to do behind you. Raising here feels like an overplay to me.
  • Arenzano Posts: 1,388Subscriber
    edited May 13
    What do think of the button's flat in this scenario? Is he the type to make lazy calls or strong calls vs your CO open with the short stack sb? How do you assess the bb lead into the field? Do you feel this is a strong lead (if he is capable) or is it a weak lead?

    In this MW scenario, your TT can certainly be the best hand, but the board is dangerous and connects with calling ranges. I think I need a pretty strong reason to raise in this spot, unless your plan is to raise/fold. If you were to raise, You don't need to size large -- 2.25x - 2.5x seems like a good number. Having said that, I believe I like a call.

  • raspaz Posts: 9Member
    edited May 14
    dpbuck said:
    What would we do with other parts of our range? AsAc? AsKs? 8h8d? Do we have multiple sizings with different parts of our range?
    Taking same line with K8+

    May want to trap nuts or top set.
    Superfly said:
    Hi Dana, I think this very wet low board hits the callers much harder than the PFR. I don’t think you have any range advantage multiway.
    Assuming 30% co open range we have a marginal range advantage. But if you look at type of hands sb cold calls with they will have some nuts but a lot of 89s 79s 99 flush draws which are under a lot of pressure when we raise.

    Another consideration of sizing is being able to reopen the action if the bb cold calls and sb jams.
  • Superfly Posts: 170Subscriber
    edited May 15
    @raspaz, I used the ranges provided in Ki’s preflop open and continuation charts. CO open, BTN and SB call vs LP open. Equities are shown below with CO first, BTN second and SB third. The board smacks both callers range pretty hard. BTN and SB preflop calling ranges also shown below.
  • hustlin Posts: 260Subscriber
    We just have to be slightly concerned about btns range here.
    Since we r OOP to him. Only worry is bloating the pot OOP to the BTN.

    However I do think ....
    I would raise here. ISO the fish, get value ,etc.
    You have a medium strong hand here that needs some protection.
    Just seems the most +EV

    However on occasion this hand will blow up in ur face once in awhile lol lol

  • Superfly Posts: 170Subscriber
    Ugh. Forgot to include BB. Revised equities shown below. Hero is 3:1 dog to win this hand based on hand equity alone. Obv that does not take into account PFR, skill or positional advantage.

    Note that my calculator doesn’t allow partials, so I included these in each Vs calling range. Some of the suited connectors that hit the board are partials. But in most live games I think these would be more frequently called rather than raised. Conversely, some of the suited broadway partials would be more frequently raised instead of called. Net effect is that Vs equities probably slightly higher than shown?
  • dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 1,983SubscriberProfessional
    @superfly, I'm not sold on the fact that this is all about ranges and equity. Button was in a great position (and has shown the skill) to make my life hell in this spot. Even if my range does contain sets and straights, it is a smaller percentage of my range than button's. He has more strong hands (>1P) and more strong draws as a percentage of hands than I do. Couple that with the below-average other players in the hand, if I'm in button's shoes I'm looking to play very aggressively any chance I get. I'm not saying that means we shouldn't raise. We just need to consider that fact when making our plan for the hand.

    Spoiler:
    I may have overthought this, though, and decided to raise LARGE to dissuade button from doing anything funky.
    I raised to $330. Button took a looooooooooong time, then JAMMED. SB tank-called, BB folded, and I sigh-folded.
    Board ran out Ace-Ace (no spade), SB tabled 88 and Button mucked.
  • Superfly Posts: 170Subscriber
    Dana, not sure if I’m misreading your comments or you misread mine. My point was that the flop hits all the caller’s ranges harder then it hits the PFR hero. They have all the sets, 2P, big draws, etc. You seem to be saying the same thing?

    The reveal confirms that not one but two villains hit the flop so hard that one came over the top of your 3bet and another called the shove. Isn’t that the risk we were both pointing out? Lol, sorry if I’m missing something obvious! @dpbuck

  • CycleV Posts: 852Subscriber
    I wishj I'd piped in before the reveal, but I didn't want to look like the site's biggest nit. But to me, the options were between calling the flop and folding. I'm not saying this is correct, but what I would have been thinking about.
    by 1Sonny
  • fishcake Posts: 933Subscriber
    I think the hand is a trivial fold. Villain would have to be donking a pretty unreasonable range for us to continue here. We also have two players behind and over 2/3ds of the deck isn't a blank on the turn.
  • fishcake Posts: 933Subscriber
    Raise is realllllllllllllllllllllllllly bad guys.
  • dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 1,983SubscriberProfessional
    edited May 16
    Sorry @superfly, I didn't post very well there. I'm going to use the excuse that I had had a few glasses of wine. (Kids, don't drink and post in forums!)

    I was more referring to our equity with TT may be secondary to our equity with our range. A lower percentage of our hands hit this board than our villains. Does raising help us realize our equity more (with both TT and our range)? That's what I was trying to say. Though I agree we may be on the same page here.


    @fishcake How do you construct your range here? Are you raising a polar?
    You say "villain would have to be donking a pretty unreasonable range" - Villain is a spot, and his donking range is very weak. Hand is completely different if BB is competent.
  • CycleV Posts: 852Subscriber
    edited May 16
    I gave the donk a pretty wide range, but it's one that is crushing us. I gave him any pair 44-QQ, all sc from 43s up to 98s, offsuit connectors 54o-98o, and any 2 spades higher than a 9. Also A7s for a bit of button clicking. We're crushed here.

    Equity Win Tie
    MP2 63.97% 62.61% 1.35% QQ-44, A7s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, 43s, AsKs, AsQs, KsQs, AsJs, KsJs, QsJs, AsTs, KsTs,
    QsTs, JsTs, As9s, Ks9s, Qs9s, Js9s, Ts9s, As8s, As6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, 98o, 87o, 76o,
    65o, 54o
    MP3 36.03% 34.68% 1.35% TdTc

    So you need him to have a ton of A7o and garbage like A6o, and a ton of bluffs like A4 and stuff like that, bet even A4 has a ton of equity against us, and can bluff any spade, unless you plan on getting unreasonably sticky. It's fair to throw in some 86o, but that is counteracted by some 75o. And all that's before we take into account the BTN who you know is capable of making your life hell.

    The higher up our overpair is, the more we can call. As to trying to price out the btn, if we raise, he can still flat and many times the donk will just overcall, so it will be hard if not impossible to price btn out.

    Sometimes we have to fold the best hand. I don't think a shrug-fold is out of order.
  • Superfly Posts: 170Subscriber
    @dpbuck, I see what you’re saying and agree. In my first reply to raspaz I used Hs CO open range. But when I revised the analysis, I mistakenly used Hs exact holding. Range is more appropriate.

    @CycleV and @fishcake, given BB is a huge spot, I think a fold here feels a little tight but your arguments for doing so seem valid. It’s a crying call at best IMO.

    @CycleV, based on your posts in general, I think anyone that confuses you for a nit is going to pay a heavy price! Lol

    @bart, @KiLee, this is an interesting hand with opinions all over the board. Any thoughts?
  • BartBart Posts: 5,791AdministratorLeadPro
    I'd probably play this hand as a call.. the button can make your life a living hell if you raise, which is what happened. If he has nothing behind you he'll just fold a hand like QJ. If we were closing the action here I could definitely see raising vs a spot. Bart
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