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Constructing Triple Barrel Range as UTG PFR vs Rec V

Chase Posts: 99Subscriber
edited May 16 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
I'm going to give a specific situation and attempt to describe a triple barrel betting range that would be MAX EV against a typical rec Villain. Please share your thoughts of these ranges and sizings. Thanks!

$2/$3 casino game, $300 effective stacks, 9-handed

H opens $15 UTG with Ki’s preflop range for UTG open (77+, 98s+, A5s, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, AKo, AQo).

V1 (a loose rec) flats in the CO, BTN folds, the blinds are both regs and they both call.

(4 players - $60) A K 8

Both blinds check, H $50 with the following range:


Total 36 “value” combos:
Sets 9 combos
Two pair 9 combos
AQs and AJs 6 combos
AQo 12 combos

Total “Bluffs” 9 combos
All possible FD:
9 8
T 9
J T
Q J
Q T

Nut-gutters-with-BDFD:
Q J
Q T
J T
T 9 (not GS but can turn OE, gutters, as well as BDFD)

So “value” to “bluff” ratio is 36-9 or 4-1, and H is betting with 45/97 combos or ~46% frequency. H has a big range advantage and nut advantage on this flop, so betting at a high frequency seems reasonable, but on the other hand the pot is not heads-up but 4-handed, so 46% frequency is likely better than betting at a much higher frequency.

Is the ratio of 4 "value" to 1 "bluff" too few "bluffs" considering H's significant range advantage and nut advantage on this flop? Should I add additional "bluffs" into this c-betting range?

V1 quickly calls, and both blinds fold,

(2 players - $160) A K 8 7

H $75 with range of:


All the "value" hands that were bet on the flop (36 combos),
And the 4 best "bluff" combos (straight-draws that unblock clubs and block some of V’s AX hands):
Q J
Q T
J T
T 9

It seems like all the hands above make for better "bluffs" than the front-door-FD hands because when H has the FD that blocks V from having some FD, so then V's range is AX heavy, and since V is a rec he probably isn't going to fold an ace.

V1 calls pretty quickly,

($310) A K 8 7 Q


H betting for value (28-31 combos):
Sets 9 combos
Top-two-pair 9 combo
AQ 9 combo
J T
AJs 3 combos (Should we go for thin value with this hand against this V? V is a rec so perhaps we can get value from AT,A9,A6-A2 and maybe even Q X )

How many bluffs should H have?

If H bet $50 on flop, $75 on turn, and $160 all-in otr into $310 pot then V is getting $470-$160 odds or just under 3-1, so H would need to have roughly 1 bluff for every 3 value hands to make V indifferent to calling. H is betting 28-31 hands for value so that’s means about 10 bluffs. H only has 3 obvious potential bluff candidates on this river. So H can't possibly have enough bluffs to reach the indifference point unless additional "bluffs" are included in H's betting range on earlier streets. H could bet the turn with the front-door-FD hands, so then H arrives at the river with an additional 4 (J T makes a straight) possible bluffs, but those hands don't seem like good triple barrel candidates in the first place because they tilt V's range toward AX.

H's obvious potential bluff candidates are: Q J , Q T , & (to a slightly lesser extent) T 9
These hands unblock clubs and block the V’s best AX call-downs.

It seems like those hands make for such profitable bluffs that we should jam with all those hands even against an opponent who might make calling errors. What do you think?
by 1Aaronn

Comments

  • ethanrox Posts: 12Subscriber
    I think you are onto a wild goose chase here. Your post is very logical and well articulated, however, we are not bots. Can you do this analysis on a random flop vs random number of random types of opponents in 30 sec? If not...then it's pointless to even discuss it. My assholly two cents :)
  • Chase Posts: 99Subscriber
    ethanrox, when making decisions at the table (against most opponents) we ought to consider how we are going to play our entire range in a given situation, not just how to play our particular holding in any given instance. "Can you do this analysis on a random flop vs random number of random types of opponents in 30 sec?" No I cannot, but that doesn't mean that thinking about ranges isn't useful. In many of the videos on CLP, especially Ki Lee's, there is much discussion on range play. Check out Ki's latest video, it's really good!

  • ChaosInEquilibrium Posts: 11Subscriber
    edited May 19
    Hi Chase,
    I think you can afford to include more bluffs on every street. In his "Applications" book, Matt Janda solves for the optimal bluffing frequency on every street which makes the opponent indifferent to calling down with his bluffcatchers. This is the optimal bluffing frequency assuming the opponent is playing a GTO strategy and Hero is betting a polarized range. For a typical bet-sizing he advocates 2 bluffs per 1 value OTF, 1 bluff per 1 value OTT, and 0.5 bluffs per 1 value OTR. You are allowed more bluffs on earlier streets. Since you have so much value on this board, you are probably safe c-betting your entire range.

    Edit: I noticed that you're post is about a multiway potz so the frequencies above are not relevant (Janda only considers heads-up scenarios). I still think this is a great spot to c-bet your entire range for a small sizing ($25-30), but I don't have theoretical justification to back it up. It makes the hand a lot easier to play, as you don't have to worry about your checking range being too weak (i.e., you have no nut hands and barely any top pairs in the flop checking range you advocate in your post. This makes it tougher to play later streets after you check.)
  • ethanrox Posts: 12Subscriber
    Chase

    The title of your post suggests a strategy against a single rec Villain. Instead of continuing with limiting the vast number of permutations to some reasonable form that can still be humanly analyzed you proceed with an example that includes other people, a specific board and start counting very specific combos, which is okay but it doesnt touch on so many of the broad strategic considerations.

    Since we are talking about MAX EV we can throw GTO play right away and forget all about balance. So, here the number one consideration is not constructing a range but understanding the villain.

    The easy default strategy for me is bet any pair and bd+ on non A82r boards and low paired board ,where you bet 100 percent, and barrel overcards and turns that give you more equity.
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