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Fold or put the Hero cape on?

sivaddivad Posts: 339Subscriber
edited May 19 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
2/3/5 with $10 straddle. 750 effective with villain. Hero has not played almost any hands in the past two hours (super card dead).

Hero is in the LJ with 108 and opens to 35–I know this is typically a fold, but given my super tight image, the fact there was a major spot in the straddle and lack of three betting at the table thought this was a profitable open. Only the HJ calls (HJ is a rec player who I have never played with before).

Flop ($84) Q 8 2

Hero bets $40 (could go either way) and villain calls.

Turn ($164) K

Hero bets $110 (thought this was a great card for my range and gives me equity—would be hard for most Qs and hands like 99/1010/JJ to call). Villain tanks for about 30 seconds and calls.

River ($384) 3

Hero checks and villain thinks for a bit before cutting out a $150 bet. Hero?
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Comments

  • BTPoker Posts: 32Subscriber
    Has this player been at the table for the past 2 hours while you have been folding? Has he shown down anything earlier in the session to offer info on his play? If there is zero info on the guy, the best play is a fold. 3rd pair looks beat to me. He's called you down this far and you are essentially giving up the river. A8s, 99 - JJ (JJ may 3-bet here, but you have not played a hand until now, cautious call?), Q10s & K10s, KQ (although turn tank may delete this holding).
  • sivaddivad Posts: 339Subscriber
    edited May 19
    BTPoker said:
    Has this player been at the table for the past 2 hours while you have been folding? Has he shown down anything earlier in the session to offer info on his play? If there is zero info on the guy, the best play is a fold. 3rd pair looks beat to me. He's called you down this far and you are essentially giving up the river. A8s, 99 - JJ (JJ may 3-bet here, but you have not played a hand until now, cautious call?), Q10s & K10s, KQ (although turn tank may delete this holding).
    Player has been at the table for about 45 minutes. Hasn’t really had any showdowns. Talked a lot about WSOP and I know he hasn’t played at my casino before (at least not in a long time) cause he asked if he had to post when he got to the table and that’s not a thing at this casino.

    A8 is not possible as I have the 8. Also don’t see a lot of people turning that kinda hand into a bluff anyway. Q10 and K10 are also not possible as both the K and Q are on the board.

    What hands do you think he is betting on the river (especially for value)?
  • Superfly Posts: 244Subscriber
    V calls twice and then bets less than half pot on river. Plus no obvious front door missed draws. That screams value to me. Easy fold in my book.
  • CycleV Posts: 991Subscriber
    What are you hoping he has? If he has a hand like a low PP that just felt like being sticky, ott he put you on Ax and he knows he should take the cheap showdown. Really the only bluffs he could have are AJ/AT with bdfd, or JT also bdfd. That would be a very optimistic 5-7 combos. But he didn't bet enough if he's bluffing, and AJ may take the showdown anyway. But KQo is 9 combos just by itself. Toss in some AKo cuz we really don't know how he plays, and an occasional set, and it's possibly 2-3 bluff combos against 10-12 value combos. Me no likey.
  • sivaddivad Posts: 339Subscriber
    edited May 19
    CycleV said:
    What are you hoping he has? If he has a hand like a low PP that just felt like being sticky, ott he put you on Ax and he knows he should take the cheap showdown. Really the only bluffs he could have are AJ/AT with bdfd, or JT also bdfd. That would be a very optimistic 5-7 combos. But he didn't bet enough if he's bluffing, and AJ may take the showdown anyway. But KQo is 9 combos just by itself. Toss in some AKo cuz we really don't know how he plays, and an occasional set, and it's possibly 2-3 bluff combos against 10-12 value combos. Me no likey.
    AK I definitely agree that there would be some combos. KQ as well but many of those would likely raise on the turn, so would discount several of those, same with sets. Would likely give him about 4/5 of the AK combos he plays this way and about 4/5 combos of the KQ combos available and up to 2 set combos so about 10-12 value combos. Think this feels like it should be more, but thinking about the hand, he’d have to play any of these in a non standard manner to get here.

    AK he has to not 3! Pre and float the flop.
    KQ he has to not raise turn.
    Sets he has to not raise by turn (and if it’s QQ, he also has to not 3! pre)

    As far as hands I’d be hoping he has—AJ, J10s, or random other flush draws that he turns into a bluff (if he floated the flop with Ax of spades) + the unknown live spazz factor of 2ish combos, probably about 5-6 total bluff/spazz combos.

    Don’t need to be good that often here (1/4.5ish), so even with your current combos, it’s not that far off, unless we use take your most conservative estimate that only 1/7 are bluffs. If we take your most aggressive range of 3 bluff combos and 10 value, it’s a close call.
  • Geet Posts: 38Subscriber
    edited May 19
    Two other hands I think the villian could have are AQ and QJ. May explain the tank on the turn. Probably thought his hand is good on the river for a value bet.

    If KQ, AK and sets may be less likely, could we go for a bluff on the river instead of checking?
  • Wtwebster Posts: 28Subscriber
    Looks like a fold to me. You’re not beating enough hands with middle pair, river bluffs are really rare and I don’t think you’re getting a good enough price to hero. Don’t let being card dead influence your play. (From personal experience.)
  • sivaddivad Posts: 339Subscriber
    Wtwebster said:
    Looks like a fold to me. You’re not beating enough hands with middle pair, river bluffs are really rare and I don’t think you’re getting a good enough price to hero. Don’t let being card dead influence your play. (From personal experience.)
    Only adjustment I typically make is to open hands that are right on the edge, that I would normally fold cause I’m a nit (like in this hand). Not that I haven’t made other adjustments, but those are usually more just tilt... which I try to avoid.
  • CycleV Posts: 991Subscriber
    I agree there is a certain % of the time that your hand is best, and I agree we are all capable of constructing some ranges to justify any action (call, fold, raise). But it feels like the last couple of months, a lot of posts and threads have been about the science of poker, such as constructing ranges, etc. This is important and even necessary to win online. But this is LIVE poker, and one of the things we know is that the river is not nearly bluffed enough. (Other than too many c-bets, there's probably not enough bluffing at any point on a typical table 5/5 and under.) If you think you've got a V who can do it, sure, hero every now and then. But in your example, floating with JT--two undercards ffs-- just isn't something we see often enough to worry about.

    I'm not saying we should never call. I had a guy almost fall out of his chair when I called his river bet with K high and was correct, but a spot like that is rare, and usually relies on live reads more than range construction.
  • sivaddivad Posts: 339Subscriber
    edited May 20
    Thanks for the comments. Agree with a lot of the sentiments here. But as a confirmed nit, need to see if my thinking is too nitty in these spots.

    For those interested:

    Spoiler:
    So I was pretty heavily leaning towards a fold, and probably would fold here 80%-90% of the time. That’s my normal line in similar spots after being called twice. He gave away some MASSIVE tells during the river which led me to call and in this case I was good.

    The reason I posted is that when I went over this hand with a couple people, they thought it was an easy call, so wanted to see what some others thought, and if I’m just a big nit for not thinking that.
    by 1JKH
  • fishcake Posts: 952Subscriber
    This is an easy fold. You can't just leave out a bunch of live tells in your original post and expect us to give a good answer.
    by 1CycleV
  • sivaddivad Posts: 339Subscriber
    fishcake said:
    This is an easy fold. You can't just leave out a bunch of live tells in your original post and expect us to give a good answer.
    Why not? I wanted to know what people thought without them.
  • CycleV Posts: 991Subscriber
    Fishcake is right, if you're not going to give us all the info you have we can't tell you what we would do in the spot. This isn't online robotic play, this is live play. saying you had a massive tell telling you to do something, but not mentioning it to us, frankly I'm not even sure what the point of this exercise was.

    Unless you wanted to show how we all would have been wrong and you made a great call. Well played.
  • sivaddivad Posts: 339Subscriber
    CycleV said:
    Fishcake is right, if you're not going to give us all the info you have we can't tell you what we would do in the spot. This isn't online robotic play, this is live play. saying you had a massive tell telling you to do something, but not mentioning it to us, frankly I'm not even sure what the point of this exercise was.

    Unless you wanted to show how we all would have been wrong and you made a great call. Well played.
    That wasn’t the point. I will make sure that is more clear on future posts though, and include all information and disclaimer if I am asking for something to be avoided. Apologies for any confusion here.

    The point was to see if that was the case on the surface. Several people I respect mentioned that this was a clear call before I told them anything about the tell. Wanted to see if this group agreed because I was questioning that. I think the responses I got made a lot of sense based on the information and were helpful.
  • CycleV Posts: 991Subscriber
    We had one person who used to post a lot of hands where that was their MO, we all give advice they they say they did the opposite and was right. Pretty annoying. So I'm glad that's not you!
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