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1/3 -- Preflop spot with KQs

1/3 NL uncapped in Austin, TX. Game is playing really loose.. the 10/20 double straddle had been on for the past 2 rounds. This hand however is not straddled.

V: $700 effective. Before he sat down, another player at the table commented that he was one of the tightest players in the game. I witnessed him reraise TT from the SB to 180 over five limps in a straddled pot, so he's not OMC tight. We can probably assume he's playing tighter than the standard GTO ranges.

There is little to no 3-betting going on in this game. Most hands go 4-5 ways to the flop.

Hero has a neutral image with $1100.


V opens to $23 in UTG+2, Hero calls in MP1 with K Q, BTN ($2.5k) calls and SB ($1k) calls.

Flop: Q 9 4 ($95)

SB checks, V bets $70, Hero calls, BTN and SB fold.

Turn: 3 ($235)

Villain bets $300 with $270 behind.

Analysis: We have 28.8% equity against overpairs and we're getting 27.2% in implied pot odds, so turn is marginal considering RIO. Main question is about preflop. Following the 15-25-35 rule of thumb (treating KQs as a suited connector) this can be a call given stack sizes. But are people folding KQs in MP to an EP open from a tighter player?

Comments

  • CycleV Posts: 910Subscriber
    Against a guy I KNOW is a TOTAL nit, then sure you can fold pre. But not only did you see him pop it up with TT OOP, your impression that he's tight is from table talk from some rando. That doesn't qualify as solid intel in my book. So the call pre is fine.
  • ChaosInEquilibrium Posts: 11Subscriber
    Rest of hand history, leading to the river decision:

    We call. Pot=$835

    River: J

    Board: Q 9 4 3 J

    Villain moves all in for 270 into a pot of 835.

    We're getting 4 to 1 on a call. Can we be good more than 20% of the time here?

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