1/3 NL uncapped in Austin, TX. Game is playing really loose.. the 10/20 double straddle had been on for the past 2 rounds. This hand however is not straddled.
V: $700 effective. Before he sat down, another player at the table commented that he was one of the tightest players in the game. I witnessed him reraise TT from the SB to 180 over five limps in a straddled pot, so he's not OMC tight. We can probably assume he's playing tighter than the standard GTO ranges.
There is little to no 3-betting going on in this game. Most hands go 4-5 ways to the flop.
Hero has a neutral image with $1100.
V opens to $23 in UTG+2, Hero calls in MP1 with K♥ Q♥, BTN ($2.5k) calls and SB ($1k) calls.
Flop: Q♦ 9♥ 4♠ ($95)
SB checks, V bets $70, Hero calls, BTN and SB fold.
Turn: 3♥ ($235)
Villain bets $300 with $270 behind.
Analysis: We have 28.8% equity against overpairs and we're getting 27.2% in implied pot odds, so turn is marginal considering RIO. Main question is about preflop. Following the 15-25-35 rule of thumb (treating KQs as a suited connector) this can be a call given stack sizes. But are people folding KQs in MP to an EP open from a tighter player?