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River call at Aria 2-5

Jonesey Posts: 28Subscriber
Aria 2-5, 1200 eff 6 handed

UTG straddles 10, Hero opens $35 T9hh in cutoff, V (local 25-year-old pro I've played with before, tough, can be overly post-flop agro) calls on button, all fold.
($95) Flop 4c8hQh, Hero $40 c-bet, V raise $110, H calls
($315) Turn 8c, Hero check, V checks
River Ah, Hero bets $210, V raises all-in to cover my roughly $900 left

Hero?

Normally a pretty easy fold here, but the bet sizing is so huge. Does a large river over-bet indicate bluff? Why would he bet so much with a boat or K-high flush when the bet size screams "fold"?

Comments

  • Garland Posts: 141Subscriber
    edited May 23
    I'm not sure about the river sizing. What are you putting him on that will call a 2/3 pot river bet?

    His line seems consistent of a boat. I wouldn't overthink this. What can he have?
    44 (3 combos), Q8s (2 combos), QQ (3 combos), AA (3 combos), K J are good candidates. Maybe A8 if he's overly aggressive as you say on the flop. All of these beat you.

    He may have hands like a gutshot and lower flush draws (5 6, 5 7, 6 7), but I would imagine they would often barrel the turn and never raise the river.

    I don't see a bluff in his range nor a value hand you can beat. I would fold this and not sweat too much about it.
  • wainfleetboy Posts: 1Subscriber
    I would agree with @Garland, its hard for anything other than an 8 or good Q( which if he was aggro he would raise with pre ) to call with. not many 8's there and considering the fact that a flush makes the river id assume trips would just call. a sizing around 125-145 may be better on the river. fold vs raise
  • Jonesey Posts: 28Subscriber
    Thanks for the comments. Results are completely uninteresting -- of course I folded and he didn't show. The purpose of the post, though, was trying to understand his bet sizing on the river (and any comments on my play as well). I just don't understand his river bet and if over-betting in that situation is ever indication of a bluff.
  • Garland Posts: 141Subscriber
    edited May 24
    Jonesey said:
    Thanks for the comments. Results are completely uninteresting -- of course I folded and he didn't show. The purpose of the post, though, was trying to understand his bet sizing on the river (and any comments on my play as well). I just don't understand his river bet and if over-betting in that situation is ever indication of a bluff.
    Some people go for the throat. Eventually you'll get a read on his over-sized raises. This hand, it's difficult to envision a bluff.
    by 1Jonesey
  • ddz Posts: 150SubscriberProfessional
    Not that unusually large of a raise. Just over pot sized. He’s representing a polarized range (nuts or nothing), and solvers typically raise large in that spot. If he’s gonna raise like 500 more, better to jam
  • Superfly Posts: 186Subscriber
    @Jonesey, I’m not sure that this is an easy fold. His value hands are very limited, and if he is aggressive post flop as you say, he might view the Ahs as a good scare card.

    Value hands;
    88 for quads (1 combo)

    A8s and 44 for boat (5 combos). Seems unlikely a pro would call Q8s or 84s pre, esp with 3 players behind in the blinds. But it is 6 handed, so...??

    KJhh for flush (1 combo). Again seems unlikely that pro calls K8hh or worse pre?

    Logical bluffs with equity might include KhXx broadways (except AK which would raise pre)?

    If he’s aggressive and views you as very tight, maybe he finds some other stone cold bluffs?

    Pot odds are about 1.5 : 1. To me it all hinges on your playing style and table image up to this point. And how loose V is pre, which you didn’t mention.

    If we can expect him to stick to reasonable ranges pre, and if you’ve been playing pretty tight, I might call.

    But it’s close and not sure what I would do. Actually I do know what I would do. I would call. But “curiosity” calling too much is a leak for me, so not sure that’s right!
  • Jonesey Posts: 28Subscriber
    Thanks Superfly, and I hear you. The main problem is that for the most part, I don't think the lower-limit Vegas pros bluff very much like this on the river. In the 6 weeks or so I've been playing, my calls in this situation have been wrong, almost 100%. So maybe this player is just more willing to bluff on the river with a large bet, but a lot of these 2-5 and 5-10 guys seem frankly money scared and trying to pay their rent, which makes their bluff ranges on later streets seem much smaller. I need to watch this guy a little more before I think he's got the ability to bet his rent on a bluff.
  • Jonesey Posts: 28Subscriber
    Bluff bet on the river, sure. Bluff-raising seems to be extinct.
  • Superfly Posts: 186Subscriber
    Yea, I agree with you in general. Grinders trying to make rent tend not to make big bodacious bluffs on the river.
    by 1brick
  • brick Posts: 127Subscriber
    Would be quite the play for him to raise there. I would watch home closely going forward.
    by 1Jonesey
  • hustlin Posts: 282Subscriber
    this is a really interesting spot here.
    I cant really really see what he is really repping here....
    Q8, A8?? ,44?
    some of those combos would be the turn in some instances especially the A8.

    hmmmm It kinda sucks cause ur pretty deep here. Ur getting a decent price on a call. If villain views u having lots of 8x here and may be valuing a flush here.


    Honestly its confusing based on his sizing and line here.
    I think hes either bluffing here, got a flush lower or higher, or a boat just seems unlikely.

    I would go w my read here and maybe look him up haha.
    by 1Jonesey
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