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1/3 Tough river spot facing overbet...

fih Posts: 31Subscriber
Deep 1/3 game playing deep stacked with 75% match . The game started early in the day and the right combination of players got the stacks deep pretty quickly. A fair amount of straddling.

Hero has about 2000$.
Hand begins with UTG (700$) opening to 13$.
I pick up Q Q next to act and make it 45$
MP1 (600$) flat calls my 3bet, HJ (1000$) calls. and the original UTG raiser calls as well.

UTG is a loose rec, plays way too many hands.
MP1 is a good solid thinking player. Have talked with this player several times off the felt and shared HH with him. Capable of bluffing and adapting to table changes. No doubt in my mind this is a winning player.
HJ is a loose rec fish, feeding the game and eager to call with all sorts of draws and hot trash and looking to bust any and everyone he can.

Flop is 175$ and comes 8 5 9

UTG checks, I slam dunk check it here. Being so multi-way and a good player to my left I felt check was best option, Im capped at one pair here at best.

MP1 and HJ check as well.

Turn is 175$ and comes Q
UTG checks.
Great card, now i need to go for value. I bet 75$ (sizing?) this is a wet board hitting fishy calling ranges well. In hindsight I felt this was a bit small.

MP1 flat calls as well as HJ. UTG folds.

River is 400$ and comes K
Pretty bad card, I check (do we bet for this value here?)
MP1 pushes out a pot sized bet of 400$. HJ folds and back on me?

What do we do here? MP1 is once again a good player, position and range aware. I am arriving on this river with hands like AA, KK and QQ, possibly JJ, AKs and AQs. Point being I am pretty high up in my range with QQ and feel under repped and I need to be good 33% here. I feel like MP1s range consists of a variety of Sets, straights and flushes, along with some missed heart draws.

Comments

  • alecspade Posts: 73Subscriber
    edited May 26
    Were you afraid of getting raised by the good player here? What range do you think he has cold-calling a 3! preflop? I don't think you're going to run into a lot of "good winning players" blasting off just because you are "capped". I would be concerned that his range consists of a ton of small-mid pairs, which smacks this board, but unless he has flopped a set he's not going to just wildly raise. We have two loose stations in the hand with us and I want value from them. I would have c-bet around $120.

    On turn, as played, $75 definitely way too small. You can bet the $120 here.

    Why is the river a bad card? JT was already there, HJ isn't just flatting it on the turn and he has very few suited hands, but not betting the flop put us in this awkward situation. V is going to raise the turn with all sets and straights and may also do so with draws.

    If I'm V I might think you have a hand like AQ. You didn't bet the flop and made a very small turn bet when the Q hit, and now you've checked the K river, so it looks like you are really scared here. If he's as good as you think he can pretty much bet his entire range here to move you off your perceived weak hand.

    This is a fist pump call.
  • CycleV Posts: 1,030Subscriber
    I also would have gone bigger ott. Since you made it so small, he could have pieced off with a pair+gs like J9, etc, and as you know, that isn't a great river card for you. I'm not fist pumping but unless I know the guy tends towards nittiness (doesn't sound like this V), I'm just gonna have to shrug-call.

    There are some boards where I "slam dunk check" as you say, we had a hand last week or two by dpbuck where I advocated for checking (even c/f) with TT on 765tt board. There, his overpair was lower, he had no bd draws, and he faced a donkbet in front of him with a pro behind him. Here you have a better pair and many less 2p combos we're likely to face. This board is much more draw-heavy, and with at least one guy guaranteed to call with almost anything. I think there's clear value to be had with sticking a stack of reds out there on the flop.
  • Geet Posts: 38Subscriber
    I would bet flop, bet turn and maybe bet/fold the river if we get raised. Cant think of a good reason to check flop. Draw heavy board, multiway. Should charge the draws. I would put a big bet on the turn somewhere close to 150. Just so many cards that could come on the river that can have us beat or would be difficult to get value from worse - hearts, spades, any 6,7,10, J - oneliners to straights.

    As played, I would call the river as well. Villian could be betting some worse hands - flopped sets that somehow played this way or straights and two pair like KQ. However, the board looks scary and this could be a fold depending on the villian. I guess, If he was not capable of pot sized bet into two players as a bluff, we probably can fold this. MP1 is almost all in here (with about 80 left?), absolute sizing is probably big for 1/3 game.
  • Daddyslap Posts: 46Subscriber
    I'm also feeling a flop bet is warranted here; our hand Is virtually face up when we make this flop bet depending on what our 3! Range looks like. Are we 3 betting 88 or 99, or is this range capped to over pairs and nut draws when we lead multiway otf?

    I get the impression you feel you are often times behind on this flop (multiway); don't let monsters under the bed stop you from betting for value and gathering information.
  • ChaosInEquilibrium Posts: 23SubscriberProfessional
    edited May 27
    I think flop bet is best on this super-wet board. I don't expect MP1 to get too out of line in a multiway pot. Also not sure that our range is capped here. Given that UTG is opening wide, we might 3b or fold our entire preflop range from UTG+1 -- this eliminates the possibility we get squeezed by any players acting behind. We can 3b our entire EP opening range, which presumably dominates UTGs opening range. I think 88/99 could certainly be a 3b in this spot.

    Turn bet is way too small. I'd bet around $120-130.

    River is a snap call. Villain should have hardly any flushes here. Remember that he flat-called a 3b from middle position with the PFR still left to act. If he's competent then the only flushes he should have are A J, A T, and the SF J T . I might even ship the river for his last 100. He'll be getting an amazing price at 10-1 and will call with all of his 2 pair (mainly KQ and K9s). I think you're good more than 50% of the time here.

  • fih Posts: 31Subscriber
    edited May 27
    Thank you for the input. I didnt really feel so much behind on the flop as I did letting myself slip into a more theoretical approach and trying to protect my checking range. This is a flop that will often be checked in a large multiway pot with hands like AK and AQ etc.. After thinking more about it do agree 100% a bet was warranted here. This game had the right players to make it a pretty loose and actiony game and I'm certain to get called by worse.

    The results were that MP1 has 4 5 . I was pretty surprised to see this. We discussed the hand afterwards and he regretted calling my raise next to act. He knows he made a huge mistake. He also commented he did not think I had a set there and would have used the same sizing with all his perceived value hands like 55, two pairs 45 and better... making it a snap call for sure on my part if that was the case. He also called turn thinking he has his 2 pair trips draw live to my presumed overpair or AQ. It was a strange hand and we both got take away from it. Like I said I know this guy is a winner and he has the skills to bluff and put pressure on me as he has done it in the past.... that made this hand more hazy than it would be otherwise vs a typical rec. He had commented before about trying to enter pots in these loose game with implied odds type of hands like suited connectors. 45s was taking that a little too far in that configuration we felt like.
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