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Fun River Spread Limit

MrO Posts: 159Subscriber
2-100 370 effective
Hero MP 3♥️5♥️ (I called because they have a 1800 bonus for 6 high straight flush in hearts)
Limped pot 5 ways
Flop (10) 746 r
I bet 8
BTN raises to 20
I 3 bet to 80
He calls
Turn (170) 8♦️ BDFD
I bet 100 he calls
River 7
Should I do??

Comments

  • jojacks Posts: 86Subscriber
    So much of this depends on your perception of the villain.

    Age/Gender/Ethnicity?
    Does Villain fit stereotypes for that profile?
    Is Villain a good thinking player, totally clueless, or somewhere in between?
    What kinds of hands is Villain over-limping?
    What kinds of hands is Villain raising on the flop?
    How have you seen Villain play rivers? Does he bet thinly for value? Or is he a total showdown monkey?
    Etc.
  • jojacks Posts: 86Subscriber
    Also, where are the other callers? How many were in between you and Villain on the flop?
  • PokerShaman Posts: 86Subscriber
    Work the action step-by-step. What sort of range does the villain start out with preflop? How does the flop action narrow that range? What is your equity versus that range? Ditto for the turn action.

    What hands can the villain have that would call a river bet that you beat? Would they call with an overpair? How many overpairs do they have in their range, given that they flatted your raise in a multiway pot?

    You unblocked missed diamond draws. Are you perhaps better off check/calling in hope that they will bluff? Are there enough of them in their range (that survive the flop action) that they would use as bluffs on this river?

    My opinion, not having done actual work with a tool like Flopzilla, is that we should check and sigh-call, even if they bet the maximum 100.

  • CycleV Posts: 1,103Subscriber
    Odds of a straight flush are something like 3 in 10,000. And since you need 3 exact cards, not just any ol' straight flush, it's got to be much much worse. Even if you knew you'd never face a bet at any point, chasing the bonus is a huge leak.
  • LatvianMissile Posts: 122Subscriber
    I think the big question here is: do we thing V has a straight, FH, trips or just 2 pair? We lose to a full house, we want trips and 2 Pair to call and we want the straight to fold out which is unlikely. I feel like a FH is unlikely unless it's specifically 87 or 76 since I set probably re-raises. So that's 12 combos. Hands we beat that are never folding: A7, 97. That's 16 combos. And then we split with 55, 65, 75 (if he's playing that) and A5. 18 combos. So if he's not folding a straight (most players won't) then the play is to bet 100 and if he raises, we fold. That's the option I like best, I could also see jamming here since it will be difficult to fold to raise.

    But gonna agree with Cycle that folding pre is the best option.
    by 1CycleV
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