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EP and overpairs

VernonJones Posts: 178Subscriber
Raise from utg+1 with 2 black queens and get 2 callers. Flop is 6h5d2h and I bet $65 into $90 and get raised by first caller to $205. We both have $700 behind and it's the first orbit so I have very little other information. How would you proceed in this hand?

Comments

  • Steve Posts: 149Subscriber
    Tough spot without any info. What are the blinds? That can help get a sense of the player pool.

    There's a good chance you're crushed right now. Options are:

    1. Call and evaluate turn. Try to get a sense of hand strength through bet sizing. If he bombs for something like $300, easy fold. If he slows down on a turn brick, your hand might be good.
    2. Fold. At smaller blind games, most players won't be semi bluffing with draws or getting this aggressive with something like 77-99. Maybe JJ or TT. Most of the time this is something like 22,55,66, 65.
  • DavidChan Posts: 1,208Pro
    What are the stakes? 2/5 NL or 5/10 NL?

    This is a tough spot, but Villain's slightly large flop raise sizing seems slightly more weighted to semi-bluffs. I would probably call and re-evaluate the turn.
  • SatanLovesPoker Posts: 168Member
    David Chan said


    This is a tough spot, but Villain's slightly large flop raise sizing seems slightly more weighted to semi-bluffs. I would probably call and re-evaluate the turn.
    We are out of position, so how can we evaluate? What cards arre we betting, and what ards are we checking, or are we always checking?
  • DavidChan Posts: 1,208Pro
    This is a valid concern. I prefer calling and re-evaluating because I think we might pick up on a turn bet sizing tell or physical tell. Besides that, however, it might be better to commit on the flop or just fold because we are OOP.
  • AesahAesah Posts: 1,048Pro
    David Chan said

    What are the stakes? 2/5 NL or 5/10 NL?

    This is a tough spot, but Villain's slightly large flop raise sizing seems slightly more weighted to semi-bluffs. I would probably call and re-evaluate the turn.
    Ya it's super dependent on where you play. At some places when people rep only sets, they only have sets. At other places, I am absolutely in love with this spot because regs try to rep sets about 5x as often as they actually have them.
  • VernonJones Posts: 178Subscriber
    2/5

    yes JJ and 1010 were definitely hands he can show up with here. I also get afraid of the sets but folding seems like a pretty weak play unless the v only raised with sets in this spot. He might even be more likely to flat with a set here .
    Steve said

    Tough spot without any info. What are the blinds? That can help get a sense of the player pool.

    There's a good chance you're crushed right now. Options are:

    1. Call and evaluate turn. Try to get a sense of hand strength through bet sizing. If he bombs for something like $300, easy fold. If he slows down on a turn brick, your hand might be good.
    2. Fold. At smaller blind games, most players won't be semi bluffing with draws or getting this aggressive with something like 77-99. Maybe JJ or TT. Most of the time this is something like 22,55,66, 65.
  • VernonJones Posts: 178Subscriber
    2/5
    I feel like the only play is to fold or shove. I would never just call in this spot. Could we maybe talk more in general about calling versus shoving when you get raised on the flop or even turn? What factors do you look at when deciding? Normally when I have a hand like an over pair or tptk on a drawy board and get raised at under 200 bb I will normally shove versus call OOP . I feel like the v is going to bet any turn card 90% of the time anyway
    David Chan said

    What are the stakes? 2/5 NL or 5/10 NL?

    This is a tough spot, but Villain's slightly large flop raise sizing seems slightly more weighted to semi-bluffs. I would probably call and re-evaluate the turn.
  • Arenzano Posts: 1,391Subscriber
    This is a tough spot,but we should be folding here almost always. Especially with no history with the villain.
  • PhulHouze Posts: 200Member
    Why is this a shove or fold scenario? I hear that all of the time (didn't that start with Lon McCarren or some TV announcer?) but rarely do I hear an explanation of why a certain scenario is shove or fold.

    I know a lot of players who are making this play almost exclusively with combo draws. Hands like Ah3h or 4h5h have a ton of equity. Then you have the next tier of hands like 5h7h or 45, 78 without the flush draw. I just think strong draws are a larger percent of villains range than a set or flopped straight. The flush draw could cause the made hands to bet bigger tho.

    The problem is that you are about even with the combo draws and crushed by the made hands. However, on the turn, you move ahead of the combo draws if the turn is a brick...so that's one reason to call rather than shove. If you shove you fold out everything you beat, so this sounds more like a call or fold, rather than a shove or fold situation.

    I'd say if it's an old guy fold, young guy (especially Asian) call.
  • Steve Posts: 149Subscriber
    .
  • Mike Posts: 371Member
    Steve said

    .
    good post

    it sucks because of no reads on villian. Without knowing how he plays we dont really know what he would do with draws here. I supposed KK/AA is a concern here since some players dont like to iso a PFR without other limpers with big pairs.

    I think calling and evaluating the turn (likely to fold to a turn bet) is the best play. Shoving seems like an over play and folding just seems bad.
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