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350bb deep Top 2 facing aggression on turn 3 ways

redrex003 Posts: 5Subscriber
edited June 10 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
2/5 All players are $1,800 effective

Whale limps UTG I raise AhKd $30 UTG1 HJ super loose mostly passive asian calls CO kid playing conservative tag (seen overflat JJ pre vs whale, check back trips on river) calls goes 6 ways

($180) AxKc3c checks to me $125 CO calls whale calls

($555) 8x whale checks me $375 CO $875 whale colds calls I have $1200 left behind the 375 vs both, hero?

Comments

  • PiggyPiggy Posts: 150Subscriber
    edited June 9
    Turn raise from a passive player on an AK board? In most cases my default reflex is fold unless he could be overplaying something. Someone who overcalls JJ pre and checks back trips is generally not going to be semibluffing draws.

    If I wanted to “invent” hands he might be bluffing or overplaying... 98cc, 87cc,T8cc, 86cc are possible. I can definitely see A8cc playing this way. If he flats JJ pre, maybe he can have AK but I’d expect to hear from AK OTF. Same with AXcc — doesn’t that raise flop? If he has JTcc, QTcc, QJcc I’d expect him to blast off with those and GII OTF, not OTT after his equity goes down. We also need to ask ourselves if he can show up with a wierd AA/KK here. I’m primarily concerned with 33 and to a lesser extent 88 but he shouldn’t be peeling with that.

    Against a range of 33, 88, AK, A8cc we have 30% equity. If we add in KK+, that drops to 25%. Adding the reasonable 8x FDs brings us to 38%.

    We are deep that I think we can call/evaluate. It’s 500 to call, pot is 2680 and we need to call 500 we’re getting just over 5:1. We need 10:1 vs 33 but there’s another potential $2400 we can win. If we bink and he does show up with KK+, he can take my money. One thing we need to consider is whether there are any implied odds from the whale. Is he going to fold the river say, on a bricked flush draw, thereby reducing our implied odds?
  • PiggyPiggy Posts: 150Subscriber
    edited June 9
    Double post, sorry
  • CycleV Posts: 995Subscriber
    How much you have left behind, Piggy and I are reading it differently. Looks like you're saying you have 1200 in front of you facing the raise, and it's 500 more to call. So there is not as much implied odds as 2400, just 1400?

    Next time when you write up a hand, just say how much everyone starts with or what is the eff stack size at least. Heck, you didn't even say what the blinds are.

    I agree with Piggy's first thought, that this smells like 33. But if you're running equity, I'd add in A3s (2 combos). As you described the kid I think a fold is likely correct, though I'm not saying I could always find the fold button myself.
  • redrex003 Posts: 5Subscriber
    edited June 10
    I thought I wrote it out pretty well.. Edited it though.

    We all are $1,600 effective to start the turn. Also thank you both for your responses so far.
  • PiggyPiggy Posts: 150Subscriber
    edited June 10
    I misunderstood the stack sizes in the OP. If we are $1800 effective, we only have 770 left after we call the extra 500 on the turn. Based on that, this is a shove or fold spot since the raise is stack committing and we don’t have enough behind to call/evaluate.

    Versus a range of KK+, 88, 33, AKs, A3s, A8s, Tc8c, 9c8c, 8c6c+, AKo, we have 41% if heads-up. If we say that he only has 2p+ then we only have 30%.

    I’m very worried the whale will be holding one of our ace outs (esp Ac) if we’re currently behind.

    3-ways, against a range of 2p+ and assuming the whale holds Ac we only have 20%. Even if we give villain ALL of the semibluffs we are only flipping.

    Against any other player type this is probably a close shove, but given the player description this is a puke fold. The flop being 6 ways and everyone putting you on AK leads me to think his range is heavily weighted towards 33.

    BTW I disagree with the conservative TAG label. I would put this player in the tight-passive / OMC category based on the description of villain’s play.
    by 1CycleV
  • PiggyPiggy Posts: 150Subscriber
    Results?
  • redrex003 Posts: 5Subscriber
    I'd like a couple more responses before I tell, if a few days go by and nothing I'll pm you.
  • Superfly Posts: 253Subscriber
    edited June 12
    I would not be able to find fold button here. I think V could easily play AK this way and there are more combos of that than 33. If he’s bad enough to just call pre with AA or KK in CO with a raise and call in front of him and 4 players left to act behind, well then we’ll know better next time.

    Only question in my mind is whether to call or shove turn. Vs have correct odds to call with simple FD even if you shove. So do you just call turn and save $700 if a club comes? Or do you force FDs to call shove, thus increasing profit if a club doesn’t come? That extra money would be especially nice if you end up chopping with one of the Vs. Seems like there should be a math solution to this but it’s too complicated for me to figure out over lunch. My gut says to shove.
  • hustlin Posts: 291Subscriber
    As played would jam the turn. Math says it’s good to jam here especially with the whale in here.

    Since you don’t have the A of clubs here makes it a great spot to jam.
    Just hope he’s over over playing A8 or A8c or A3c. Or chop w AK.
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