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How to Identify a Bet/Fold Spot?

Jax1234 Posts: 60Member
edited June 10 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
I'm in Vegas for the first time in four years playing 2/5 at the Orleans. I am the effective stack with $1500. The villain in this hand is a loose maniac with around $2,500. The villain is playing pretty much every hand and running as hot as the Vegas sun.

I have queen ten in the big blind. The villain is in the cutoff. UTG limps. Villain limps. Small Blind limps. I raise to $35 in the big blind. The standard opening raise in this game was $20, so I added $5 for each limper. UTG folds, villain calls, small blind folds.

The flop is 10 seven six I bet $50. The villain calls.

The turn is the six I bet $85, the villain calls.

The river is the eight I bet $125, the villain calls with six three offsuit and scoops the pot.

My question is whether I should have bet at all on the turn and river. My intention on both streets was to bet for thin value but then fold to a raise from the villain. When the villain failed to raise on the turn on an incredibly wet board, I thought that it was possible that I was ahead with just top pair.

I do not think my bet on the river accomplished anything but my thought process was to seek thin value against a loose maniac villain who could look me up with jack/ten, eight/seven, five/seven, five/eight, ace/seven, king/seven, etc. He can call with those hands if he puts me on a missed front door diamond draw with two overs. I thought that the villain would play a hand like 10/9, 9/7, pocket nines, 10/7, pocket eights, or any six more aggressively on the turn. I bet $125 on the river with the full intention of folding to any aggression.

One of my biggest leaks is getting married to a top pair hand when I am the pre-flop aggressor and "make" my hand on the flop to a certain extent. Bart emphasizes that the lower stakes are all about getting value and I would have felt a little sick if I checked the river and the villain checked back with jack/ten. As played, I would have saved $125 as the villain would have checked back the river even with trip sixes if I had checked to him.

Should I have used a bet/fold strategy on this hand when I have so much showdown value? How do you identiy a bet/fold situation?


  • PiggyPiggy Posts: 157Subscriber
    edited June 10
    I first off, I’m probably just checking pre. I wouldn’t normally open QTo from up front, which means I’m not iso raising it after multiple limps.

    If we ARE raising from the blinds, I make it bigger pre. 35 is too small from the blinds after 3 limps. 35 is closer to a “normal” size IP after 2 limps.

    As played I think we can bet flop, bet turn, and check fold river. On the river we only beat JT. All weaker kickers are ahead. Against a range of all reasonable Tx we only have ~20% equity.
  • CycleV Posts: 1,111Subscriber
    When there's that many limpers, you either have to bomb it or just take the free flop. I usually opt for the latter. Against 3 limpers squeezing is perhaps fine, but still, I'd go 40 at least. You have a trash hand, if you're squeezing it's as a bluff not value, so taing it down right away is great.

    I agree with the above line. bet bet c/f seems reasonable., or c/c the river for a smallish bet since diamonds missed.
  • PiggyPiggy Posts: 157Subscriber
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