I'm in Vegas for the first time in four years playing 2/5 at the Orleans. I am the effective stack with $1500. The villain in this hand is a loose maniac with around $2,500. The villain is playing pretty much every hand and running as hot as the Vegas sun.
I have queen♦ ten ♠ in the big blind. The villain is in the cutoff. UTG limps. Villain limps. Small Blind limps. I raise to $35 in the big blind. The standard opening raise in this game was $20, so I added $5 for each limper. UTG folds, villain calls, small blind folds.
The flop is 10♦ seven♣ six♦ I bet $50. The villain calls.
The turn is the six♠ I bet $85, the villain calls.
The river is the eight♠ I bet $125, the villain calls with six three offsuit and scoops the pot.
My question is whether I should have bet at all on the turn and river. My intention on both streets was to bet for thin value but then fold to a raise from the villain. When the villain failed to raise on the turn on an incredibly wet board, I thought that it was possible that I was ahead with just top pair.
I do not think my bet on the river accomplished anything but my thought process was to seek thin value against a loose maniac villain who could look me up with jack/ten, eight/seven, five/seven, five/eight, ace/seven, king/seven, etc. He can call with those hands if he puts me on a missed front door diamond draw with two overs. I thought that the villain would play a hand like 10/9, 9/7, pocket nines, 10/7, pocket eights, or any six more aggressively on the turn. I bet $125 on the river with the full intention of folding to any aggression.
One of my biggest leaks is getting married to a top pair hand when I am the pre-flop aggressor and "make" my hand on the flop to a certain extent. Bart emphasizes that the lower stakes are all about getting value and I would have felt a little sick if I checked the river and the villain checked back with jack/ten. As played, I would have saved $125 as the villain would have checked back the river even with trip sixes if I had checked to him.
Should I have used a bet/fold strategy on this hand when I have so much showdown value? How do you identiy a bet/fold situation?