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5/10 Floped a set vs pre-flop raiser

ClockClock Posts: 1,106Subscriber
~3200 effective
Game is is 5 handed at the time (just started recently)
V is a REC player, mid 30s, but not sure about his competency level...

HERO opens 4 4 UTG to 40, V on BU 3bets to 120, blinds fold, HERO calls
Flop (260): 9 6 4 - HERO checks, V bets 140, HERO x/r to 340....V thinks a bit and bet-3bets to 1040..HERO thinks and calls.
Turn (2340): Q x x
River (2340): 9

River play?


  • CycleV Posts: 1,096Subscriber
    If he has a better hand we're just going to have to pay the man. But I'd think his turn check was so he can call any reasonable river bet. AA, KK, and random 9x are going to snap call you, while it'll be hard for JJ or TT to call unless he's a station.

    Shoving looks so strong, so I'd go 1700-1800 or so and target the near-top of his range, basically whatever you think he'll call, perhaps making it look like you're saving yourself a few bucks if you're wrong.

    I can see why someone may suggest a bet 1K/fold line, but there are 12 combos of AA/KK vs 3 QQ and 1 99, I think we're leaving too much value on the table by not betting big otr. My line leaves no room to b/f in case he simply decides to go w AA.
  • Superfly Posts: 373Subscriber
    I agree with @cyclev that we’re never folding here. Given Vs aggression pre and on flop, the only possible hand that beats you is QQ. And I think most Recs would bet that on the turn for value, looking to set up shove on river.

    Since you only have $2,000 back on the river, I think the choice is shove or bet small (say, $1k) to try and get JJ or TT to look you up. Sometimes recs like me can’t help themselves and call out of curiosity.
  • ClockClock Posts: 1,106Subscriber
    So how much would you bet?
  • CycleV Posts: 1,096Subscriber
    edited June 11
    Well it's really a math problem. Assumptions: we get stacked every time we're behind, and that he always has AA, KK, JJ or TT when he calls. So there's 24 hands that could call.

    If we bet 1K and get calls from 12 AA/KK and maybe half of the JJ and 1 TT, that's 16 calls=16K/24 hands= $667 EV

    If we bet 1700 and get calls from 10 of the 12 OP and none from JJ/TT, that's 17K. So EV would be 17K/24 hands=$708. If he's willing to call with all AA and KK then the EV is $792, which makes the bigger bet a much more obvious choice.

    It's up to you to decide how elastic his calling range is, and if you are willing to bet 1K/fold otr, which would change the math quite a bit. But assuming we're never folding, and that he's calling with most if not all OP, a bigger bet is called less but has a much higher EV. and if you think if he's calling 1800 if he's calling 1700, then that helps too. But if you thought that a 1K bet would get looked up almost 100% of the time by JJ/TT, then go with the smaller bet.
  • hustlin Posts: 308Subscriber
    I would bet fold this river. 1/2 pot looks in order. It doesn’t make much sense w the turn check.
    Your looking to get value from the 6 combos of AA and 6 of KK.
    You lose to some QQ, 96s, 66 and 1 combo of 99.

    And yss I would fold to a jam here haha.
  • ClockClock Posts: 1,106Subscriber

    HERO bet 900, V made a "disgusted face" and called pretty quickly and obv. I was good...
    by 1hustlin
  • JredA Posts: 64Subscriber
    I like the x/r on the flop against a REC player.

    Im curious against a solid pro in this spot on the flop do we still x/r or should we c/c to keep our range wider? We have few strong value hands (basically sets) and very few bluffs.
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