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WSOP Event 28, Day 2 hand

MattyB Posts: 55Subscriber
edited June 13 in Tournament Discussion
1K NLHE event, Level 17, 3000/6000, 6000 ante. I have 110K (~18 BBs). It’s early Day 2 and we are in the money.

Main villain (MP1) is mid 50’s, and an experienced tournament player. I had the privilege of playing with him on Day 1 next to me, and coincidentally we were seated next to each other on day 2. He showed me his Hendon Mob and it’s filled with many small cashes that’s he’s proud of, but no major wins. He’s stated to me that he’s a “survivor” in tournaments and never really wins big. His stack is slightly larger than mine, ~120k. Plays tight, solid. Never seen him get out of line.

UTG (covers us both) opens to 2400. Folds to main villain who jams all in. I’m in MP2 next to act with A K

This may seem like a standard spot, but I’m not an experienced tournament player, so I’d appreciate the honest feedback. Was genuinely not sure what to do. My thought process is that with a short stack this late, I want to be the one pushing and putting people to decisions, not calling off against 1-2 opponents with no pair. That said, tripling up this late is a huge jump for my chip stack.

Easy call or easy fold?

UTG ended up calling, so I will post results later.

Comments

  • JredA Posts: 64Subscriber
    Did UTG open to a full 4x? So 24,000?

    Going with this assumption there is roughly 159k in the pot when the action gets to you. You need to "call" 110k.

    Let's go with 2 scenarios. Scenario #1 everyone else folds - including UTG as well as everyone behind you - so we need roughly 41% equity. I like to add around 5% cushion for tournament dynamics so we need around 46% equity in scenario #1.

    So much of this really comes down to your range of the villain's. It sounds like you have a pretty solid read on the shover. Or at least have enough info to come up with a solid range.

    Are you thinking TT+ and AK? In that case we are only 43% equity. So short of the required amount of equity needed.

    99+ and AQ? In that case we are getting the required amount of 51% equity.

    Is he so tight and conservative he is only shoving QQ+ and AK? If thats the case we are in rough shape - 41%.

    In scenario #2 UTG also calls. So in this case we add another 110k (how much you can win from UTG) to the amount of 159k. We come up with 29% equity needed. Then add our 5% to get 34%.

    Again we range villains and run it through an equity calculator.

    If we give the original shover 99+ and AK, and we give UTG TT+ and AK we are 27%. Short of the equity needed.

    So basically this comes down to what you range the villains and whether or not it is a jam. Its tough because there are so many what-if's. But thats part of the beauty of tournaments.

    When going over spots like this I like to run three calculations.

    Best case scenario - adding a few bluffs and giving villains a wide range

    Worst case scenario - giving villains a tight range

    A middling ground - somewhere in between these two numbers

    I tend to go with the middling ground number as the number to gauge what I should have done. In your example I would do this for both Scenario #1 and Scenario #2. Then go from there. But if villains are as tight as you make it sound (especially the shover) this may be a fold.
    by 1brick
  • BartBart Posts: 5,949AdministratorLeadPro
    You cant fold AKs here for less than 25bbs. Some crazy things have to happen to fold AKos at less than 25bbs but this is just an open and a rejam. Its actually a great scenario for you as you are most likely flipping vs a pair or dominate AQ. In fact if you have AQs I even go with it, AQos I fold. Bart
  • MattyB Posts: 55Subscriber
    Guys thanks for the great feedback. Truly didn’t know what to do here, and when not sure, I tend to fold and move on, which is what I did.

    As for the 2 scenarios, I knew nothing about UTG other than he opened 4x and had literally folded every hand the previous round. So even if I can safely put the 3-bettor on 99+ and AQ+, I still have no idea on UTG’s range, but it should be strong premium hands. This just felt wrong at the time, and hated to fold AKs, but I did.

    What’s frustrating too is after this hand, I learned a lot more about the 3-bettor, as he opened up big time, and he actually ended up finishing top 20 in the tournament. So looking back, I could definitely put him on 99+ and AQo+, and maybe even wider than that - which would obviously make this a snap call. But at the time, this was not my read.

    Hard not to be results oriented, but here are the results. I folded, UTG called with AKo, and the 3-bettor had AA (and held). So in this exact sample, I happened to be correct. But after gaining more info, I would have snapped this opponent. As stated, this could have been a home run against AQ or even AJs.
  • fishcake Posts: 962Subscriber
    If folding AKs for 18bb doesn’t show how much of a fucking joke waste of time tournaments are then I don’t know what does. This just isn’t poker.
  • brick Posts: 127Subscriber
    I agree with you that putting others to a decision, especially short stacks, in tournament poker is a huge deal. It sucks when you can't add any fold equity to the calculation and you are just flipping with small pairs. IMO, you've got to be sure he has AQo or worse to call here.
    Yesterday I raised all in in a tournament with AK and got called by AQ. That was awesome, huge equity difference there.
    by 1MattyB
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