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"You WANT them to make that call..."

PhulHouze Posts: 200Member
After a 3 day run filled with a number of sick beats, I feel like I've heard this phrase a million times. Donkey makes a stupid call, catches a miracle card, and you get stacked. I've gone back and forth with bet sizing, as I try to decide if I really DO want them to make that call. During a downturn, I tend to bet big, just feeling burned from so many suckouts. But then I realized I was basically turning hands into bluffs because I couldn't get called by worse. For example - Raise to $25 at a 2/5 table, get 4 callers, flop TPTK and bet $100. The hand below illustrates the adjustment I've made, and I'm curious as to whether I've gone too far towards inviting villains into the pot (especially preflop).

Hero ($850) - 35 y/o white male. Regular at this casino. Used to play 1/2 for about two years, but have been playing 2/5 exclusively for the past 3 months. Tend to be the table nit, meaning I don't call raises from UTG w A6o. Many hands are going 4-6 ways, so people are playing all kinds of trash, but I'm not sure anyone is noticing that I'm not, particularly the two Vs in this hand.

Villain 1 ($1500) 50ish Indian guy - playing loose preflop, but also seems to be on a heater. After 1.5 hours at the table, he's shown down AA twice and QQ twice. Also coming through with flopped flushes, sets, etc. He's been making small preflop raises 2-3 times per orbit. Doesn't seem like that great a player - he's made some bad plays, but has been getting bailed out by the deck.

Villain 2 ($420) - 40ish asian guy. Totally gambooler. I've been playing very tight, raising 3-4 hands over the hour, rarely limping, but this guy calls every one of my raises. Also calls very wide against other players too, showing down as bad as 47o after limping and calling from MP.

V1 raises to $20 from MP1. V2 calls from HJ. Hero raises to $60 w AdiamondKheart. Both villains call.

Flop ($182): Kdiamond8heart2diamond. Hero leads for $100. V1 folds, V2 calls.

Turn ($382) 4club. Hero shoves. $260 for V2 to call. He thinks for a few seconds and calls.

River Qdiamond. I make disgusted face and look at villain. He won't show, so I flip over my AK and he shows 4diamond6diamond

Now I know that by the turn, he has very good odds to call (assuming I have what I have). Though I probably have one pair hands most of the time, he is in bad shape if I have a set here. He's actually in pretty good shape if I have a higher flush draw though, as I only have 11 outs against his paired 4. My real question is about the streets leading up to this. I intentionally 3bet smallish pre as I knew this guys had loose ranges and didn't want to blow them off their hands. The flop bet was small again for the same reason. Of course, hindsight is 20/20, but I wonder if anyone has a simple way to determine at what point does the pot get big enough relative to stack sizes that it simply becomes better to just take it down 100% of the time instead of trying to extract more value from soemthing like a dominated pair or a draw. The $100 ott looks attractive because of the large pot size, but if I know I"m not planning to give a free card on most turns, is it ok to get villain to commit himself?

In some ways, I figure I could just shove the flop (a play that's nearly +$180 in EV since villain hardly ever calls). By the turn, now that villain has picked up equity, my EV is roughly:

= 70%(440) - 30% (260)
= 308 - 87
= 221

So it seems it's better to bet small and keep villain in. Can anyone verify the math here and/or come up with an example where the scales are tipped so we prefer villain folds a worse hand than ours? Is there some simple formula we can use on the spot to help decide when to keep villain in and when to blow him off his hand?

Comments

  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    AK is not a trapping hand. not only preflop, but on the flop as well. if you flop a pair, bet it.
    shoving the flop is a mistake, as you limit calling hands to only those that have you beat. but bet closer to pot.
  • electricsheep Posts: 169Subscriber
    I agree you start to doubt whether you are doing the right thing when you get continuously sucked out on.

    I think it might be better to keep it standard preflop and bet bigger to isolate a dominated AX range.
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    PhulHouze, I'd reraise a bit larger pre, something like 80. Also, I'd cbet a bit larger, something like 2/3 pot on such board that is not coordinated at all but two-tone. Other than that, you played the hand well and got all your money in vs. an inferior hand. Don't second-guess your overall thought process, you might the right play IMO. It's part of the game that hands with some equity draw out on you some of the time.
  • Johnny_UtahJohnny_Utah Posts: 402Subscriber
    I probably would have raised more PF. From the way you describe the opponents, you could have raised higher for value from at least one of them.....while at the same time, maybe isolating only one of the players. I just like playing AK heads up......there is nothing you can do about that run out. Terrible suck out that I'm sure we all see too much of. I like the way you played it PF.

    I had a rough time for a while with bet sizing due to "the bad call and nailing the one time," situations. When I finally started to realize how much casual players would reveal themselves with betting patterns and sort of "face up thier hands". It made me a lot more confident in betting for value and wanting players around to extract value.
  • DavidChan Posts: 1,208Pro
    Against these loose opponents (especially V2), I think 3-betting to $80 is good as a default here. If they will call bigger sizings with dominated hands, then I may do $85-$90. If V1 would fold dominated hands to $80 3-bet, maybe $70-$75 is the sweet spot to get maximum value. It just depends on how the Villaine adjust to bigger and smaller sizings.
    Anyway, OP asked about when it is more important to take down the pot instead of going for value from worse hands. I personally feel that we should always be thinking about how best to get value from worse hands. Forget about "taking down the pot" and betting for "protection."
  • AesahAesah Posts: 1,048Pro
    Your numbers are wayyy wrong
  • AesahAesah Posts: 1,048Pro
    PhulHouze said
    come up with an example where the scales are tipped so we prefer villain folds a worse hand than ours? Is there some simple formula we can use on the spot to help decide when to keep villain in and when to blow him off his hand?
    same pot odds formula you use for everything... X = A / (A+B)

    where X = [required equity to call]
    A = [amount required to call]
    B = [amount to win]

    so in this case, on the turn:

    A = 260
    B = 382+260 = 642

    some simple addition and division gives us X = 28.8% required equity for him to call

    ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
    44 trials (Exhaustive)
    board: Kdiamond8heart2diamond4club
    AdKh 70.45%
    6d4d 29.55%

    He has 29.55% versus your EXACT HAND so he's making a correct call on this turn card (in other words, we would prefer he folds 6d4d when we shove on this turn card).

    Not ragging on you in particular PhulHouze but I find a lot of posters in this forum don't know how to do this really simple yet extremely crucial calculation. For example if the turn comes a 9d and you /shrug get it in vs. his exact hand with your NFD...

    ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
    44 trials (Exhaustive)
    board: Kdiamond8heart2diamond9diamond
    AdKh 15.91%
    6d4d 84.09%

    you're losing 28.8 - 15.9 = 12.9% on your $260 ($34 in EV!!!!!!!!!!!!), this obviously adds up if you do it multiple times per session.
  • PhulHouze Posts: 200Member
    Aesah said

    Your numbers are wayyy wrong
    Maybe I was unclear in my op, but I don't think villain made an incorrect call on the turn. The main point of the post is whether his incorrect call on the flop was more profitable for me in the hand as a whole. There are many situations where it is correct to call, but still unprofitable in the overall hand. For example, preflop a tight player raises to 20 w $100 stacks. I reraise 72 to $60. He shoves and shows his AK. I now have to call because off pot odds but shouldn't have out myself in a situation where I'm forced to call off as a dog.

    Once V2 picks up pair w his gutshot, it's horrendous for him to fold. The numbers I posted were for my EV. I am trying to decide if making a larger flop bet to get villain to fold flop is better because he folds out his equity, or if its better to get stacks in when he's a dog but cannot fold.

    If I bet slightly larger otf, such as $140, villain ten becomes committed ott even with naked fd. Pot would be $460, eff stacks would be $220, so he'd only have to call $220 to win $680 if I shove turn. I know this is a bit complicated, as EV calculations can only consider one decision on one street in isolation. I just feel we give up a lot in our game by not connecting one street to the next. I've never heard anyone describe a mathematical model for linking several streets together (other than creating a tree) so I'm wondering if there's a simified way to do this on the fly.
  • AesahAesah Posts: 1,048Pro
    PhulHouze said
    If I bet slightly larger otf, such as $140, villain ten becomes committed ott even with naked fd. Pot would be $460, eff stacks would be $220, so he'd only have to call $220 to win $680 if I shove turn.
    Even if you bet $140 on the flop, he's not committed at all with naked fd and should fold on a blank turn (say 9c). As a practice exercise, I highly recommend figuring out how much equity he has and how much he needs. Post your results on this thread if you want me to check your work.
    PhulHouze said I know this is a bit complicated, as EV calculations can only consider one decision on one street in isolation. I just feel we give up a lot in our game by not connecting one street to the next. I've never heard anyone describe a mathematical model for linking several streets together (other than creating a tree) so I'm wondering if there's a simified way to do this on the fly.
    Well the simplest way to do this is just assume if he calls flop, then you both always stack off on 100% of turns. In that case,

    X = A / (A + B)

    A = 360
    B = 360 + 182 = 542

    X = 40% required equity for him

    ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
    990 trials (Exhaustive)
    board: Kdiamond8heart2diamond
    AdKh 67.07%
    6d4d 32.93%

    So given these simplistic assumptions, he should fold flop vs. your exact hand- he loses 40 - 33 = 7% of $360 ($25 in EV). However he could be losing more than $25 in EV if you hero-fold diamond turns, but his EV is also better when you have AK without diamonds. Given your exact hands, it's a fairly reasonable approximation here. Obviously it gets trickier with wider ranges.
  • AesahAesah Posts: 1,048Pro
  • PhulHouze Posts: 200Member
    I guess you're right. So if there's $180 otf and I bet $140, ott the pot is $460. With $220 behind, a shove means he has to call $220 to win $680, which is a bit better than 33%....but he only has about 20% equity so he should fold without the pair.
  • AesahAesah Posts: 1,048Pro
    Don't know how to say this without sounding mean but I'm just trying to help you out. It is extremely unacceptable if you're serious about poker to use estimates that are so far off. In fact learning to calculate it properly will DEFINITELY earn you more money in than any other single thing you could ever learn about poker for an equivalent amount of effort.

    It will take you like an hour TOPS to use this thread to figure out 1) the exact equity he needs to call, and 2) what his exact equity is.

    For starters, you said that he needs "a bit better than 33%". No. 33% is what you need to call a pot-sized bet. $220 into $460 is less than half pot so you can see that is way, way, way inaccurate. The phrase "a bit better than 33%" is more suited to describe, say a $430 bet into a $460 pot.
  • Obviously you want to tighten up the math.

    Vs 2 opponents in a 3b pot I'd bet more just because you want to get called. If a guy has KQ he's going to call $100 or $125 or probably $140. If a guy has a flush draw and you bet $100, assuming you don't have a diamond he only has to win about $100 more from you by the river to make that call. He has ~20% equity if he sees one card, which means he needs 4-1.

    So in this specific flop, a hand like 99 probably doesn't even call your cbet since you 3b and really should have a hand. Kings are calling at least one bet regardless. Flush draws probably call one bet regardless as well. So you should bet more for value. Cbetting small doesn't really induce anything.

    If the flop was like K72r then definitely I could see betting smaller, since small bets can get a lot of value from kings by the river and you really do want to try to get looked up by underpairs.
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