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Folded AKo Pre Flop (Best Way To Calculate Odds?)

streetintrigue Posts: 5Subscriber
edited June 17 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Recent 1/3 session.

Hero (1.7k eff) UTG raises to $25 with AKo (obv a big opening bet but this was standard for the table. Anything less would generally get 2-3 callers who were 'priced in')

UTG+1 (300 eff) flat calls, I'd played with him previously - young tricky laggy type I'd developed a friendly rivalry with. He liked to play lots of suited connectors, one/two gappers so potentially calling pretty light.

Folds around to older Asian gent on BU (550 eff). He hadn't shown down much through the night but what he had was generally nutted type hands. He clicks it to $125.

Blinds fold and it's back to me. I felt really uncomfortable being in the middle of the 3 bettor and the tricky flat caller. I felt like I had two options: flat or shove. Flat calling the 3 bet without closing the action left me open to a squeeze to my left and I honestly felt like the BU was very strong, with a JJ+ range so I'd be flipping with a shove. The BU stack depth made it feel like 4 betting wasn't really an option.

I ended up tanking for a while and giving it up. The UTG+1 also folded and showed me J9c for what it's worth.

A few things I'd like some feedback on:

- Is this too conservative a fold? Was calling the right decision to see a flop and then check/fold if faced with more aggression?
- What's the best way to calculate if I had the equity to get all the money in against the BU pre-flop
- This hand was at the tail end of a 10 hour session where I had built up a big stack for these stakes (1.7k with a 300 max buyin) so there were definitely some inner mental demons at play, not wanting to flip and lose my hard earned winnings. I may have conjured up some monsters under the bed to justify the passive fold - how do I overcome this sort of decision making?


  • brick Posts: 127Subscriber
    edited June 17
    IMO, for newer or low bankroll players, it's fine to lock up your win once you notice that the amount on the table is out of proportion to your buy-in.

    I wouldn't feel bad about passing (folding) a spot that I felt was not solidly +EV (IE flipping for 550) and leaving for the night or moving to a different game/table to rebuy for 300.

    For high bankroll and experienced players building a deep stack will increase their win rate in a small game, but with a smaller bankroll it risks too much

    For example if you start with 10 buy-ins that is 10% of your roll. But if you build up to 6 buy-ins at a table that is 6/15 or 40% of your new roll you are risking! Would you ever buy in for a game for 40% of your roll...of course not. But in essence you are doing that by staying in the game!
  • PiggyPiggy Posts: 163Subscriber
    Fold is fine. Older Asians generally fall into 2 categories: total degen gamblers that will chase any draw for any price, or ultra-nit OMCs.
    by 1CycleV
  • Superfly Posts: 434Subscriber
    edited June 17
    I’ll be surprised if there are not at least a couple people who will say you’re nuts for not shoving AK vs a button squeeze. But I can relate to your not wanting to blindly put a third of your stack at risk at the end of a winning session.

    You could consider flatting pre with the expectation of getting it all in if you hit an A or K on the flop. If UTG1 wants to come along, even better. If UTG1 shoves behind for 300, I would happily call unless gramps snap over shoves, in which case I would make an exploitative fold.
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