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KK facing a turn raise all-in

GarlandGarland Posts: 355Subscriber
Location: M8trix Casino in San Jose, CA
Stakes: $2/$3/$5 ($2 on button) $600 max.

Not on table too long, maybe an hour or so. Main villain is young Asian player in HJ. Haven't really seen him get out of line yet.

Pre-flop ($10): Loose passive MP limps (~$400), I !25 with K K in LJ (~$900), HJ I think was contemplating re-raising just calls (~$500), loose passive button calls (~$600), MP calls.

Flop ($108 - 4 players): Q J 3 x, I bet $55 only HJ calls

Turn ($218 - 2 players): 2. I bet $115, HJ raises for $307 more. I ???

Comments

  • LatvianMissile Posts: 118Subscriber
    I think this is a fold even getting about 2-1. What hands is he calling a 3! with that jams turn? We're looking at 12 combos of sets and maybe 1 combo draw of 109hh although KThh may jam as well. If he's loose passive he's probably calling any non-combo draws like AThh. I just don't see much that we are beating here.
  • jojacks Posts: 86Subscriber
    Do you think he would do this with AQ? It looks a lot to me like QQ or JJ, especially when you say it looked like he may have wanted to 3! preflop.
  • Latrell1515 Posts: 235Subscriber
    K Q is also a possibility but lower due to the King blocker-QJ suited or not and pocket three's..along with the JJ's-depending on his image of you(tight) may not have raised JJ's QQ's..I think its a fold.I liked the sizing Pre-Flop and turn btw
  • hustlin Posts: 308Subscriber
    calling this off.
    could have some combos of Qxhh, K10hh, AQ. ur really ahead of those.
    worried about 33, 32s, QJ...

    ur looking good. its kinda nitty to fold here w KK imo. Snap call! Also ur stack really isint deep enough to fold. if you got like 300-500 more I can consider letting this one go
    by 2CycleV JKH
  • CycleV Posts: 1,096Subscriber
    I'm just not letting KK go to anyone unless they look old enough (and white enough) to have voted for Reagan.
    by 1hustlin
  • Superfly Posts: 373Subscriber
    edited June 19
    While it doesn’t seem like he has enough for the turn raise to be a bluff, curiosity would still get the better of me on this one.

    Did he really just call and not reraise with QQ or JJ from the HJ pre? Inquiring minds want to know.

    My guess is QJs, 33 are more likely. And even if he has QJ you still have a 20% chance of coolering him.

    Just finished looking at a 2-5 hand where someone passively called with AK pre and massively overplayed TPTK post. Maybe your V is doing the same with AQ?

    If it’s a stone cold bluff I want to know that, too. And $300 seems like a decent price to pay for that info if you expect to be playing with him awhile. But that’s just me being Curious George.
  • GarlandGarland Posts: 355Subscriber
    edited June 21
    Spoiler:

    Thanks for everyone's comments. Not really a fan of curiosity calls of this magnitude. Having 20% equity to cooler him is still not the right price. At these stakes, I think putting someone on Qx, K T is just trying to make up hands to justify a call. These hands usually just call quickly to a turn bet. In this case, he snap shoved the turn (I guess I should have included that in the original post). The only real question in my mind is if he is overplaying AQ. I'm not so sure that would be the case and that person would usually be content to call down.

    I thought it was far more likely this person had the following hands in order of likelihood: JJ, QQ, AQ, AA, QJ due to my pre-flop read. I folded and didn't see his hand.
    by 1Pancho
  • StreetFighterStreetFighter Posts: 173Subscriber
    edited June 21
    Good fold. You are at 47% equity vs. AQ, JJ, 33, QJ, Khth, T9h. And just 22% with them only having AQh for AQcombos.

    Edit: The more I look at this hand the more I like checking the turn with KK. You block their most likely and best top pair hand, along with the oesds. Your range also has better hands than theirs, but also a lot of hands that want to check the turn too KQ (sometimes), QT, KJ, AJ, AT w/ bdfd, QQ.
  • hustlin Posts: 308Subscriber
    looking at this hand 1 more time.

    you losing to
    3 Combo QQ ( maybe 3bet pre)
    3 combo JJ
    3 Combo 33 .
    9 Combo QJ.

    16 combo AQ AQhh
    1 Combo KQh
    add a few random combos of like A10h 910h K10h,Q10h,

    Can see its kinda closeee. But given the pot odds, stack depth and wet board texture. Definitely a + EV call here IMO.
    You will need a very very solid read here to make a fold. Or else it becomes quite exploitable. From my experience playing live, you just see enough weird stuff in live that playing ur hand for Face value is usually quite profitable


  • ds2uared Posts: 369Subscriber
    edited June 22
    Let's torture this kitten a different way. What DIDN'T villain raise with on the flop. It checks to Hero and Hero bets. Villain acts next, essentially with 3 players left to act behind. Villain didn't raise with a set? Villain didn't raise with 2-pair?

    I generally feel more comfortable putting a higher percentage of villain's calling range on the flop as being a draw rather than a big hand. (It's the reason I don't usually/always check versus a player who slowplays way too much).

    It seems at least somewhat more likely to me Villain would raise with a nutted hand like that on this flop with 3 players left to act than Villain would check.

    Villain hesitates as if he is wondering about 3!. Possible he is wondering whether or not he has implied odds? If so, unfortunately he has 33 in his range. But he also has A LOT of suited Broadways in his range. A few low suited Aces.

    And you don't block the K.

    And I love putting bad beats on people...I hope. And I withstand tilt better...I hope.





  • MattyB Posts: 55Subscriber
    ds2uared said:
    Let's torture this kitten a different way. What DIDN'T villain raise with on the flop. It checks to Hero and Hero bets. Villain acts next, essentially with 3 players left to act behind. Villain didn't raise with a set? Villain didn't raise with 2-pair?
    This is a great way to think about it, and this sways me more to a call. One aspect of hand reading that I often forget about. Thanks for bringing this up.

    The only thing I’d add is that the villain is described as “not getting out of line” and he’s not playing a full stack. A lot of scared players like to look for a safe turn card with their monsters and jam the turn.

    With 2 left to act on this board, it’s fair to say that we would be raising this board with a monster. But are nits doing the same?
  • jojacks Posts: 86Subscriber
    ds2uared said:
    Let's torture this kitten a different way. What DIDN'T villain raise with on the flop. It checks to Hero and Hero bets. Villain acts next, essentially with 3 players left to act behind. Villain didn't raise with a set? Villain didn't raise with 2-pair?

    This is a great way to think about it, but I don't think we can assume that Villain would raise 2-pair+ on the flop for a number of reasons. (also, I'm only reading 2 people left to act, but maybe I misread)

    1. There is no flush draw. For whatever reason, it seems average players are far more worried about flushes than they are straights, perhaps because they themselves have a tendency to play many more hands because "it was suited!".

    2. The OESDs are KT and T9, which are certainly reasonable holdings of BTN or the limp-caller, but it still doesn't seem as threatening as if JT or QJ makes an OESD, or even a QTX flop where KJ and J9 are both open-ended.

    3. Much of the player pool has a tendency to slow-play their big hands on the flop because they are scared they will lose their action. This is why raising the turn has the perception of being much stronger than raising the flop.
  • GarlandGarland Posts: 355Subscriber
    edited June 23
    jojacks said:
    ds2uared said:
    Let's torture this kitten a different way. What DIDN'T villain raise with on the flop. It checks to Hero and Hero bets. Villain acts next, essentially with 3 players left to act behind. Villain didn't raise with a set? Villain didn't raise with 2-pair?

    This is a great way to think about it, but I don't think we can assume that Villain would raise 2-pair+ on the flop for a number of reasons. (also, I'm only reading 2 people left to act, but maybe I misread)

    1. There is no flush draw. For whatever reason, it seems average players are far more worried about flushes than they are straights, perhaps because they themselves have a tendency to play many more hands because "it was suited!".

    2. The OESDs are KT and T9, which are certainly reasonable holdings of BTN or the limp-caller, but it still doesn't seem as threatening as if JT or QJ makes an OESD, or even a QTX flop where KJ and J9 are both open-ended.

    3. Much of the player pool has a tendency to slow-play their big hands on the flop because they are scared they will lose their action. This is why raising the turn has the perception of being much stronger than raising the flop.
    Correct, there were two people left to act. I agree with this line of thinking. Monsters in this spot are more apt to just call to attempt to get more action from Qx or Jx type hands especially when a flush draw is not present. I would give him more credit for a hand on the turn than if he just raised the flop.
  • Pancho Posts: 4Subscriber
    First thing that comes to my mind here is the Baluga theorem. I’d fold. I don’t expect most people to bluff much here, especially in position, even if he picked up hearts I don’t see him shoving over your bet.
    by 1Garland
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