1/3 Seattle. I have $320. I have Queen ♠ 9♠ in the big blind.
V1 is an incredibly aggressive player who is massively tilted. He is utg +2 and he has $211. He limps. The cutoff limps. V2 is a loose maniac who is in the small blind with around $500. He raises to $16. I call, V1 calls, cutoff calls.
The flop is Ace ♦ Jack♣ Ten♣ V2 bets $15. I raise to $65. V2's bet struck me as incredibly weak and I did not think the board hit the range of the two limp callers who have yet to act behind me.
Unfortunately for me, V1 ships it all-in for his final $195. The cutoff folds. V2 folds.
So I have to call $130 to win a pot of $335. Does the math support a call in this instance with an open-ender?
I did end up making the call partially because I thought that queen high could very well actually be ahead. If I give V1 credit for playing correctly and not limping any ace or broadway cards, let alone suited aces or broadway cards, in early position with a stack of $211, then I thought that I was going to be ahead some percentage of the time with just the queen. I felt that the limp call in early position by V1 and then V1's all-in on the flop weighted him towards low suited connected clubs that I'm ahead of such as eight/seven, six/five, nine/seven, etc. I do not think he comes over the top of two players with just a jack or a ten or any pocket pair below a ten.
Was my reasoning sound? In situations where I do not think there is any possibility that I am ahead, would the math have supported a call in this instance as played with the open-ender?