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Does the Math Support Calling an All-In with an open-ender?

Jax1234 Posts: 60Member
edited June 20 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
1/3 Seattle. I have $320. I have Queen 9 in the big blind.

V1 is an incredibly aggressive player who is massively tilted. He is utg +2 and he has $211. He limps. The cutoff limps. V2 is a loose maniac who is in the small blind with around $500. He raises to $16. I call, V1 calls, cutoff calls.

The flop is Ace Jack Ten V2 bets $15. I raise to $65. V2's bet struck me as incredibly weak and I did not think the board hit the range of the two limp callers who have yet to act behind me.

Unfortunately for me, V1 ships it all-in for his final $195. The cutoff folds. V2 folds.

So I have to call $130 to win a pot of $335. Does the math support a call in this instance with an open-ender?

I did end up making the call partially because I thought that queen high could very well actually be ahead. If I give V1 credit for playing correctly and not limping any ace or broadway cards, let alone suited aces or broadway cards, in early position with a stack of $211, then I thought that I was going to be ahead some percentage of the time with just the queen. I felt that the limp call in early position by V1 and then V1's all-in on the flop weighted him towards low suited connected clubs that I'm ahead of such as eight/seven, six/five, nine/seven, etc. I do not think he comes over the top of two players with just a jack or a ten or any pocket pair below a ten.

Was my reasoning sound? In situations where I do not think there is any possibility that I am ahead, would the math have supported a call in this instance as played with the open-ender?

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Comments

  • Jax1234 Posts: 60Member
    Not really a spoiler since my question relates more to the math and the reasoning I used to arrive at a call.

    V1 ended up shoving with king seven I gave him too much credit that he wouldn't limp with that type of hand in early position on a short stack.
  • GarlandGarland Posts: 355Subscriber
    Pre-flop: Fold > 3! > call.

    Not sure I'm loving the flop raise, but can see your rationale to try to take it down. Would prefer the A to be a blank and/or you have a in your hand to raise. People do limp call with Ax, and broadway cards so it can hit the field, but often not smash them. As played, you probably have the odds to call it off. It's not clear cut, because you have to figure once in a blue moon you're drawing thin to chop against KQ and some times your outs are dirty against something like A x. As it turns out, you are drawing to 6 live straight outs and 2 live nines. You're doing ok against his hand, but he has re-suck equity.
  • Superfly Posts: 373Subscriber
    The basic head math is you have 8 outs to hit your straight. Simple in-game method to estimate your equity is to multiply by 4 with two cards to come or by 2 with one card to come. Since you’ll be all in on the flop, you will see 2 more cards. So your equity is 8 x 4 or about 32%, which translates into roughly 2:1 odds as the break even point. Your getting pot odds of 335 : 130 = 2.6 : 1, which is better than the odds you need to break even, so you can call.

    For more sophisticated and precise analysis get a poker equity calculator like Poker Cruncher for your phone or computer.

    BTW. Q9s is a probably a fold from BB pre with 2 limpers behind to act, esp since one of them is extremely aggressive and could reraise forcing you to play out of position with a marginal hand. See Ki’s Fast Track video series on CLP website for training on pre- and post-flop strategy.
  • LatvianMissile Posts: 118Subscriber
    I really wish you had waited to tell V's hand or put a spoiler. But I ran it thru an equity calculator and I think 3c2c is also in his range so this is a call. When I first read it my instinct was to fold, but it's a call. Even taking away the crappy suited cards (which I think he plays) you have 29% equity needing 28.5%. so I think it's a call. This is using Q7cc+ All suited connectors that are clubs and keeping in AK.

    Now, as far as how this hand was played. I'd fold pre since Q9 will get you in a difficult spot OOP. If I was on the button getting 3-1 it's a call, but in the BB, I fold since we're playing it OOP and still have a couple of players to act behind. I agree with Garland that a 3! is better than a call but I'm not 3! here with Q9s and a maniac behind that will call and price in the original raiser.

    On the turn, I think it should just be a call. You want them in there if an 8 or a K hits although a K probably kills the action. I'm not sure what you're raise is going to fold out, maybe a weak Ace? AK, AQ or a flush draw isn't going anywhere.
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