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3-bet pre-flop w/ 2nd pair + straight draw. Who likes a turn bet?

Garland Posts: 220Subscriber
edited June 20 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Location: M8trix Casino in San Jose, CA
Stakes: $2/$3/$5 ($2 on button) $600 max.

V1 is regular MAWG action player who likes to raise pre-flop to 7x adjusted for limpers rather than the table norm of 4x adjusted for limpers. He is relatively new to the table at the time of the hand.

V2 is a young Asian player who tries to be a decent player, but has demonstrated leaks and poor raise sizing in the few hours I've played with him. An example is where he 3-bet an EP raise of $20 to $75 with AJo in position, but put in no further aggression when the board materialized 98xxx and lost to AKs. Another example is he when he raises from SB to $20 after 3 limpers with JTo.

Pre-flop ($10): 2 EP limps to V1 ($555) in HJ to bumps it to $45, I ($850) flat with 7 7 in the CO, V2 ($755) on button 3! $155, folds around to HJ who calls and I call.

Flop ($483 - 3 players): Q 5 4. Checks around. At this point I put V2 on an AK/AJ type hand or slow-playing QQ exactly.

Turn ($483 - 3 players): 6 Checks to me. Who likes a check? Who likes a bet? If bet, how much?

Comments

  • neutron212neutron212 Posts: 13Subscriber
    I think its a check. If you bet and V1 has any sort of draw hes a/i w/ his 400 stack thats left. Then if V2 has what you think he has theres no way he's folding. Also you're in position get the free card and hope for the best.
  • CycleV Posts: 964Subscriber
    According to strict 15-25-35 play, youdon't really have the right odds to setmine for $45 pre, esp when two EP limpers could l/r. Someone can make a case we do have the right odds, and I won't fight, I think it's a borerline call or fold. But we absolutely don't have the odds to call $100 more.

    As played, I think you have to stick some money out there on the turn. Why let 2 V's have a free shot at an overcard that will either make the best hand, or allow him to bluff us if he has KQs and it's an A? we don't have to bet much, $120 should get overcards to fold every time.
  • LatvianMissile Posts: 64Subscriber
    I agree with Cycle. I like and bet here and if called we have some outs and if it folds we've protected our equity. About half the deck is bad for us so I'd try to just take it down here and bet about 125 since if we get a call we're likely beat and need the 3, 7 or 8 to come out. But I don't want to risk A10 or KJ to win on the river.
  • ds2uared Posts: 264Subscriber
    I find this to be a bet-fold versus V2 and bet-call versus V1. In the neighborhood of $175-$200.

    You're not going to get semi-bluffed off anything. No flush draws. I'd rather clean up my equity versus over cards. If V2 ships, I think you have to find a fold. If V1 ships, I don't think you can fold. I also think that's why you make it $175-$200. You can call off with your OESD if V1 jams.



  • Superfly Posts: 220Subscriber
    edited June 21
    25% PSB seems about right to me. V2 could be checking back pair under QQ. If he calls, leaves about $475 into ~$625 pot if we read weakness and decide to multi-barrel the river.
  • Garland Posts: 220Subscriber
    edited June 23
    @neutron212 I was not in position.

    @CycleV. Agreed it was a marginal call of the raise and 3-bet. Would your opinion of the call of the 3-bet change if I believed I was actually ahead of the field a certain percent of the time? When V2 raised to $155, I thought it was more indicative of two big cards than a big pair.

    @ds2uared. I don't particularly like a mindset of choosing bet sizing with the rationale that I can call it off if raised. I think we should choose an amount to accomplish what we are aiming for, in this case equity protection while minimizing risk vs. V2. The question for sizing is if I can also get fold equity from an under pair better than mine.

    Spoiler:

    I bet and chose $155. Button tanked and folded. V1 tanked and muttered to himself that I'm gonna hate him for sucking out and called. River is 8. V1 moved in, I snap called, and he asked if I have a straight, and I answered yes and showed.
    I should have made him show first. He only flashed an 8, so I wasn't sure if he had 88 or was just using the 1-liner to attempt to blow me away. Was contemplating if I should bet a little more to get fold equity from 88->JJ. Thanks for everyone's thoughts.
  • ds2uared Posts: 264Subscriber
    edited June 24
    @Garland The mindset behind betting enough so I can call it all off is to reduce villain's fold equity. The more I bet, the less likely they are to bluff (of course with amazing odds I still often have to call, but you know...the long game and such....) What are your thoughts on that in general but not in this hand in particular?

    That being said, you're likely right in this particular situation that it is not necessary. Bet less. Maybe $140.
  • Garland Posts: 220Subscriber
    ds2uared said:
    @Garland The mindset behind betting enough so I can call it all off is to reduce villain's fold equity. The more I bet, the less likely they are to bluff (of course with amazing odds I still often have to call, but you know...the long game and such....) What are your thoughts on that in general but not in this hand in particular?

    That being said, you're likely right in this particular situation that it is not necessary. Bet less. Maybe $140.
    I think at this level, villains bluff much less than you might think. My current leak is I bet too much on scary turn or river streets with the rationale that I don't want to bet too small and level myself thinking my opponent might make a move thinking I'm weak. This rationale of betting and knowing where I stand if I get raised has caused me to risk more than I should have.
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