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$200 Buy in -ITM Turn play Call/Fold?

Latrell1515 Posts: 235Subscriber
Down to 14 players and in the money and HERO has 40 Bigs in the Big Blind-Blinds are 3000-6000-6000 ante I cover Villain-V opens in UTG 3 for 15,000 and everyone folds and I defend in the BB with AhJh-POT is 36,000- Flop is Js-8c-3h- Hero checks Villain bets $30,000 and pot is now 66,000-I call. Turn is 2h so have nut flush draw. I check and Villain goes all in for 65,000-Pot is now 131,000..Hero?

Comments

  • fishcake Posts: 952Subscriber
    Seriously? NEVER FOLD IN A MILLION YEARS.
  • Latrell1515 Posts: 235Subscriber
    I know can be different in a tourney and I'm getting 2-1 odds but if I am able to put Villain on exactly KK's or QQ's my odds are 3-1 to hit my 14 outs.
  • justfourfun Posts: 178Subscriber
    I think pot is 39k pre not 36k. V has 95k behind post flop. A large c bet of over 75% of pot: 30k otf by V. Now a turn jam of 65k into a pot of 96K. You are then getting about 3.5 to 1 if you call Vs turn shove. You say you have 14 outs but is it not 11? Nine hearts and 2 J’s? If V has Qs Qd the odds are 68.18% to 31.82%. You only need a 28%ish equity hand to call. So this then becomes an easy call since we are in ok shape even against the top of Vs range.
  • Latrell1515 Posts: 235Subscriber
    3 Aces left-2 Jacks and 9 hearts-14 outs right? How do we determine how much equity we need to call..I see we only need 28%..sometimes I see we need 35% etc..thx
  • dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 2,001Subscriber
    The big thing is equity against a range, not a specific hand. Against QQ+ you have 30%. Against a wider range of sets, QQ+, AJ, T9s you have 42%. Both of those exceed the 2:1 you need on the river. It sounds like you think he has QQ+ 100% of the time?

    I'm going to have a very hard time getting away from this hand at any point. I play it the same way, and call the river. Only if you assign him a range of exactly 88/JJ can you fold.
  • Latrell1515 Posts: 235Subscriber
    I did actually put him on KK's or QQ's exactly since this late on and at this level I knew he wasn't bluffing so to speak..nice to hear everyone agrees with my play of calling..He showed KK's and I lost
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