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Choose Your Value Bet: Part 2 Thin Value

GarlandGarland Posts: 355Subscriber
edited June 24 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Location: Talking Stick Resort in Scottsdale, AZ

Effective stack $1000.

Stakes: $3/$5 $300-$1500 ($500 cap betting)

Pre-flop ($8): Decent tightish youngish UTG opens 20, I just flat with J J in CO, Loose passive BB calls.

Flop ($63 - 3 players): T 8 7 x I bet $45, BB calls, UTG folds.

Turn ($153 - 2 players): 6. xx

River ($153 - 2 players): K BB tanks and then checks. I bet ??

Comments on all streets welcome...

Comments

  • ds2uared Posts: 369Subscriber
    I like mixing up flatting and 3betting preflop in this situation. What are the effective stack sizes?

    I like the flop bet and sizing.

    I think your turn decision is predicated on one question, which is does villain fold two-pair to a moderate size bet? If so, you can properly charge a flush draw and get a better hand to fold with a bet of about $90. If called, I like to check it down with this runout.

    If villain does not seem the type to fold two-pair, I think a check is prudent. You're only getting worse hands to fold and missed draws are unlikely to bluff.

    Because you took the lead in position when the preflop raiser checked, and then checked when the one-liner came in, I see a bet here as unlikely to be called. I think sometimes that means a larger bet size will expand villain's calling range as it will polarize your range. There are some loose passive players in my pool who will call here with TX, sometimes 9X.

    But truthfully, there's so little you're targeting. Check this river.



  • CycleV Posts: 1,096Subscriber
    Pre if he's tight then fine, but normally I'd 3! I trust your read.

    Flop is fine. Turn you should bet again, tbh there's no reason not to. And any set or 99 would have/should have bet the flop. All overpairs usually do as well, so he floated OOP with some suited BW clubs or spades, or a Tx that checked to lol protect his checking range. I'd bet 65 ott.

    I disagree with worrying about him having 2p. That's not the range you assigned him preflop; if it was you should have 3 bet. Plus no way 2p checks that flop.

    River as played, you have to check. What worse will call you? AT maybe.
  • GarlandGarland Posts: 355Subscriber
    edited June 24
    CycleV said:


    Flop is fine. Turn you should bet again, tbh there's no reason not to. And any set or 99 would have/should have bet the flop.
    Please check the action. BB called a raise from UTG pre-flop. He would be naturally checking a set or 99 to the PFR. I think you have BB mixed with UTG. Does this change any of your thoughts?
  • CycleV Posts: 1,096Subscriber
    You're right, I thought OR was the V and in c/c mode. But if you're BB, you check, OR checks, last to act fires flop, I'm still raising 2p+. OOP, if BB just calls, there's way too big a risk, doesn't even matter what OR does, that the turn will get checked through.

    But this is very player dependent. You said BB is passive, is he so passive that he's only going to c/c with bottom 2 or bottom set? I think a passive BB also has more Tx in his range, that would call a turn bet. So I still think there's value in a turn bet, if he leans towards passive-stationy. Again, I'd need to see the guy to decide what kind of passive he is.
  • Superfly Posts: 373Subscriber
    I don’t really like the flat pre. You give BB to good a price to call with just about anything, making it almost impossible to range him after that. Esp if he is passive like you say and might check some hands we would normally expect to bet. Given this concern, I think a check is best on the river.
  • GarlandGarland Posts: 355Subscriber
    I can certainly entertain 3! JJ, but I think flatting is perfectly acceptable given the dynamic. TT and less is a call and QQ is certainly a 3!. JJ is that middle ground where I don't mind flatting.

    BB has all the 2 pair and 9 in his range on the turn. I think betting there is very thin, as the only worse hand I'm probably getting called by is AT if anything at that point.

    Spoiler:

    River thin value is the main crux of this post. Razor-thin for sure, but I'm willing to push the boundaries...I bet $60, BB tanks for 20 seconds and calls. I'm good.
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