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Aria 1/2/5, inside-wrap on paired flop, plan in tight shorthanded game?

Chase Posts: 120Subscriber
Sunday night at Aria, March Madness weekend.
$1/$2 ($5 open), 6 handed, pretty tight game dynamic
The BB, CO, and BTN seem like nitty regs. SB seems like a rec.

UTG/LJ folds, Hero HJ $450 effective $15 T 8 9 9
CO, BTN, and BB call,

FLOP ($61) J 7 7
BB x, H $35, CO f, BTN call, BB x-f,
TURN ($131) J 7 7 5
H x, BTN quickly x,
TURN ($131) J 7 7 5 K
H x, BTN $80, H x-f

- In this situation preflop it seems like we should have an open-raising range. If so, is this hand good enough to include in that range? (Or is it better as part of our limping range?) Would you have an open-limping range in this spot? Seems like we might want to play only raise-or-fold in this situation.

- How often are you cbetting this hand in this spot? What about sizing?

- At the time, my plan was to barrel only on T, 9, 8, or club. What do you think of that approach to playing the turn?

- As played to the river, is there merit to bluffing this river against a nit-reg opponent?

Thanks for your help!

Comments

  • TerpHimselfTerpHimself Posts: 295Subscriber
    - I think you should have an open raising range, and I'd include this hand in it 6-handed. You get 3bet much less live than online, and opening HJ here is fine IMO

    -I think the board is a good one for us to cbet, but the situation is note. I'm working on a PLO C-betting matrix, (like Bart has for NL), and the key factors are obviously Position/Number of Opponents/Board texture. Here, the board texture is a good one for us to attack given how our hand interacts with it, but going four ways with two players behind us, I would lean towards a check here.

    -If you're going to cbet as a semi-bluff, then it is not a great plan to only follow through on the turn if you make your hand. Certain cards also need to fit into your Second Barrel range, and the 5d is a pretty good one to apply pressure to the BTN in this spot. But this is also the problem with betting a paired board OOP. We are fearful that we could be betting into a monster, and so we have a hard time barreling medium strength hands off of their equity.


    -There is merit here, but unfortunately we aren't telling a very convincing story. All draws missed, the pot isn't big enough to put immense pressure on the V, and his range is now much stronger than ours after the turn went xx. He can both call correctly or bluff raise us way too often for a stab to be a good idea here.
  • Chase Posts: 120Subscriber
    Thanks for the response Terp! And thanks for the battle plan content; it's very helpful!
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