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2/5 To bluff river or not?

TDF Posts: 1,130Subscriber
EP(500) limps, MP(1000) limps, Hero(1000) opens Adiamond8club OTB to 30, SB(1000) calls, limpers call. 4 way to flop. All players are average regulars.
(125) QspadeJdiamond6club Checked to hero. Hero checks (?)
(125) Jclub Checked to hero. Hero bets 85(?) SB calls, rest fold.
(295) 2diamond SB checks. Hero ?

Comments

  • DavidChan Posts: 1,208Pro
    Why are we iso-raising preflop? Just curious because there are times that I would iso-raise A8o OTB, but I want to hear your reasoning.
  • NicholasK Posts: 237Member
    TDF said

    EP(500) limps, MP(1000) limps, Hero(1000) opens Adiamond8club OTB to 30, SB(1000) calls, limpers call. 4 way to flop. All players are average regulars.
    (125) QspadeJdiamond6club Checked to hero. Hero checks (?)
    (125) Jclub Checked to hero. Hero bets 85(?) SB calls, rest fold.
    (295) 2diamond SB checks. Hero ?
    You're raise pre should have been followed up by a c-bet in order to keep your range depolarized, If you were not ready to give up in a multiway pot. When you bet the turn you were "repping" a J or an overpair (perhaps a set of Queens), but if you had a hand like AJ or overpair you would certainly have c-bet that flop. On the River I don't like barreling at it because I can't think of a value hand (other than maybe 3 combos of QQ) you'd have there that you would play that way.
  • NachoMacho Posts: 70Subscriber
    On the turn I think villains range is primarely made of 77-TT, straight draws mainli 9T and KT, turned club draws ... I don't know that he calls your raise pre with JX or QX hands that would check flop and c/c turn, would villain have stuff like Q7s or JXs in his range?

    Let's say he bluff catches half the time with 77-TT so that's 12 combos while he folds all his straight and club draws to which we give ~30combos (and we beat most of them with A high). I guess villain could have some Js and Qs in his range that are in c/c mode such as JT,J8-JTs,KQ,QT,Q8-QTs which is 42 combos. That is 52 combos that i think call and 30 that fold. In percentages that translates to g3tting a fold 36% of the time while a call would be 64% of the time.

    The question then becomes, how likely is villain to bluff catch given the line you've taken, in other words, what are you repping if you bet river? I personally think that your line represents a pretty narrow value range. Your range is heavily weighted towards turned trips and not as much AA-KK, maybe sometimes you play QQ this way.
  • AesahAesah Posts: 1,048Pro
    eazy check river IMO
  • TDF Posts: 1,130Subscriber
    Aesah said
    eazy check river IMO
    Thanks, straight to the point! thumb
  • TDF Posts: 1,130Subscriber
    NachoMacho, I think this river decision comes down to the questions "How much showdown value do we have?" and "How much fold equity do we have?". I think we have enough SD value and not enough FE to make it check back.
  • TDF Posts: 1,130Subscriber
    David Chan said
    Why are we iso-raising preflop?
    Thanks David, good question.
    I'm opening over two limpers, who are pretty straightforward, taggish, winning fishfryers. Most likely they would open premium hands like JJ+,AJ+,KQ. So their limp/calling range consist mostly from small PP, SC, suited gappers and broadway cards. Table plays quite passive so their limping range is quite wide and include some limp/folding range from which I profit immediately. Blinds are not 3betting light (and nobody at this table for that matter). Even if I don't have big skills advantage over limpers, I have positional advantage and cards advantage - my hand is ahead of their limp/calling range.
    My plan for postflop is to get favorable board run out to make good cbets, good barrels and good folds.
    So effectively I'm profiting by forcing my opponents into making mistake of putting money in the pot with "implied odds type of hand" without actually having any implied odds.
  • DavidChan Posts: 1,208Pro
    If you are correct that the 2 limpers have a lot of speculative implied odds hands in their limping range, then I like the iso-raise with A8o.
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