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Hit the river, bet and get jammed on 1-2 NL

Villain - bad reg, likes to play pots, aware but loose pre and sticky post, covers table. raise sizing tell where he raises big hands big and mediocre hands small pre

Hero - 20 y/o, seen as aggro pre and post, $370 to start the hand


Villain opens LJ to 10 (small for the game, especially since he's the big stack), 2 calls, Hero calls SB ATo, BB calls

Flop ($50): A86r

Action checks around

Turn ($50): 2 bringing bdfd (we do not have the A of the flush suit)

Hero leads for $30, only villain calls

River ($110): To

Hero bets $85, villain shoves in about 1 second



  • ds2uared Posts: 369Subscriber
    Fold. Sticky can mean they don't fold. But raising on the river is something else completely.

    97 gets there. A slow played set beats you. And another Aces-up hand might have bet the flop (possible) and/or raised the turn (likely). So it's less likely you're beat by another 2-pair that is going for value now.

    Letting spots like these go will really help a session out in the long run. If he shows a bluff (if he's bluffing and he's spazzy, there's at least a 30% chance he shows, maybe more) you know you can call some of his crazy shoves in the future.

    Welcome to the forums, HermitHere
  • Latrell1515 Posts: 235Subscriber
    That quick to me is a bluff-he's Raising the turn if he happened to have/hit set on turn/flop now. If he happens to hit 3 tens on river so be it but I would tend to think with blocker and description he's raising larger pre with 10's. IF he raised pre with 7/9 suited he would have continued on flop being open-ended IMO, I'm not folding
  • LatvianMissile Posts: 118Subscriber
    That’s an easy fold. You’ve shown 3 streets of aggression as the PFR, not to mention people don’t bluff the river on a raise. If V had an A he’d probably just call and a worse 2 pair may also just call or would raise earlier. Also knowing what suits the cards were would be helpful. Ad8s6c2d is different that As8d6c2d since one means he could have a suited ace to the backdoor same if we have 10d in that case
  • CycleV Posts: 1,096Subscriber
    edited June 25
    Pre: You gotta squeeze this. You know he's weak, you know the 2 callers are weak, and you have a decent hand with a bit of blocker action and there's 11BB out there. Go get it! Raise to $60, take it down, and feel like a baller, like that guy you hate playing against who is always picking up pots without showdowns.

    River, well I hope you like math. Assuming he olny does this with value, there's 16 combos of 97 and 1 combo of TT, so we're losing to 17 combos. We're ahead of 6 combos of T8, and we're chopping with 4 combos of AT. There's $525 in the middle and you have to call $245 to win it. My not using a calculator math in my head says we need to be right about 30%, and that is probably close to exactly what we're at, 8/27 is a shade under 33%. (I got that by 6 wins plus 2 chops, divided by all his hands, 27 in total).

    The good news is that if we were playing against an excel spreadsheet, there's not much EV either way. So whatever you do won't be very wrong (or right). So you're gonna have to base you decision on the number of times you think he slowplayed a set or worse 2p (rarely) against how many times he's bluffing with a missed flush draw. The only other thing is if he could have a hand like A5 that picked up the flush draw on the turn and is now turning his hand into a bluff--but this happens almost never.

    You could help your analysis out next time by noticing which cards are which suits. If the ace is the one with the flush draw, then you know he can't have Ax with a flush draw. Then you can eliminate those hands from his range.

    IMO whatever you did was probably fine. It's hard for new players to believe this, but the actual result of this hand doesn't matter, as long as your thought process was solid.
  • HermitHere Posts: 2Subscriber
    Thanks all, I reviewed the hand with a couple of the other regs who play at my card room, and they agreed on a fold, citing that we think this guy would just call T8 OTR. in the actual hand he showed up with a slowplayed 66, and I paid it off
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