Welcome.

Take a tour. Enjoy some free sample content.

How it works

Free Video: CLP Video No. 287: Home Game Bart Reviews His Splashy At $1-$3 Deep Part 2

Free Podcast: CLP Podcast No. 54: Time Warp And Turn Value
New to Crush Live Poker?

Choose Your Value Bet: Part 3 Medium Value

Garland Posts: 215Subscriber
Location: Talking Stick Resort in Scottsdale, AZ

Effective stack $800.

Stakes: $3/$5 $300-$1500 ($500 cap betting)

Pre-flop ($8): Loose aggressive HJ (covers) opens $25, called by button (covers) and I (~$800) call in BB with Q J.

Flop ($78 - 3 players): J T 7 xxx

Turn ($78 - 3 players): 4 I lead $50, call by HJ, button folds. I put him on two over cards with a .

River ($178 - 2 players): Q I bet ???

Comments

  • ds2uared Posts: 263Subscriber
    edited June 25
    Pre: I more often 3! preflop, though not 100% of the time. $125.

    Flop: Check/call.

    Turn: I like the lead.
    Garland said:
    I put him on two over cards with a .
    Do you think a loose aggo player checks this flop with AK, AQ, or KQ with a when checked to? It's good if you have a read, and I know it wasn't heads up, but it made me think about that for a moment.

    River: If he has 2 overs with a, this is a bad card for you. Only one AK = 6 combos. Only one KQ = 4 combos.
    You're beat more often than not.

    But if he's loose aggressive, QTo is definitely in his range from the HJ (with one = 5 combos). It's in mine and I'm only moderately loose preflop.

    A turned set of 4's (6 combos) is in his range, too.

    Have you seen villain showdown unsuited A-rag from HJ?

    Whatever the case may be, I think you should be checking this river. Many of the hands you beat that call you don't exist by the river.

    The most likely bluff-catcher-call you'll run into is a J, and you both block a J and he didn't bet it on the flop. He also likely doesn't share a Q, as AQ and KQ are somewhat likely to bet this flop.

    I welcome critiques on my thought process. (As a personal aside, in the moment I actually see myself bet-folding this, when in analysis I think I should check).
  • Superfly Posts: 219Subscriber
    I think I like a 50% pot bet-fold strategy here. We can get called by AQ and KQ. Also If we just check river and V overbets, I think we have to call off since we may have induced a bluff and our hand is too strong to fold. But if we bet say $85 and V comes over the top, I’m much more comfortable giving him credit for AK or possibly flush (although I would expect loose aggressive V to often reraise a flush on the turn.). So our bet is sized right to get worse hands to call, while saving us money if V has us beat.

    @garland, thanks for posting these interesting hands. Great study material!
  • Superfly Posts: 219Subscriber
    edited June 27
    PS. I think a 3 bet pre vs late position loose aggressive PFR and caller is a good option. I don’t mind the call either though.
  • Garland Posts: 215Subscriber
    edited July 1
    I don't like 3! with this hand pre when it plays so well multi-way. I can get behind a 3! with KQ.

    @ds2uared you will lose a lot of value if you are checking this spot on the river.

    Spoiler:
    I believe this is a clear value bet with an intent to fold to a raise. I think the key to this hand is to bet an amount to get called by a Q, but freeze him if he has AK. I wanted to be able to keep him in line with my represented flush while getting value from the AQ/KQ type hands I put him on.

    I bet $65, he tank calls and I'm good.
    by 1CycleV
  • CycleV Posts: 963Subscriber
    In position this can/maybe should be a 3!, but OOP I'm seeing the flop.
  • ds2uared Posts: 263Subscriber
    @Garland. I think I am swayed to a bet/fold. And I think in person I bet/fold.

    But I just have this itch that I'm not targeting that much that will call on the river. But I can't explain it. Is this a line of thinking that is of track in this situation? Is that a consideration I should even be making?

  • Garland Posts: 215Subscriber
    edited July 1
    ds2uared said:
    @Garland. I think I am swayed to a bet/fold. And I think in person I bet/fold.

    But I just have this itch that I'm not targeting that much that will call on the river. But I can't explain it. Is this a line of thinking that is of track in this situation? Is that a consideration I should even be making?

    I think you may have a "monsters under the bed" mentality. The very line of thought "he could have 44" (which, BTW is 3 combos, not 6) is detrimental to your game. Although I didn't relay this information on the OP, he called the turn pretty quickly, where I think a set would at least take some time to contemplate a raise, so I'm dismissing this for range purposes.

    Assuming he could have any AQ/AK/KQ with a, let's count the combos:

    AK = A K, A K, A K, A K, A K, A K = 6 combos (I am beat)
    AQ = A Q, A Q, A Q, A Q = 4 combos (I beat)
    KQ = K Q, K Q, K Q, K Q = 4 combos (I beat)

    Barring some unexpected other hand, I am winning 8/14, ~57% of the time. This is a clear value bet.
  • ds2uared Posts: 263Subscriber
    @Garland You're right. I miscounted.

    Additionally, I like your explanation and demonstration of his holdings is better than mine.

    These hands are great, by the way.
  • Superfly Posts: 219Subscriber
    According to Ki’s 3-bet chart, QJs is mostly a 3 bet from BB vs LP open. The fact that V is loose and wide should make this even more so.

    Does extra caller in between mean we should tighten up and just call? Or does extra dead money encourage a 3 bet and squeeze? I lean towards the latter. Even though QJs plays well multi-way, doesn’t seem ideal to just call and play it vs two Vs OOP. I’d rather try and take it down pre and play vs one V if called. Wrong thinking or just a style difference?
  • Garland Posts: 215Subscriber
    Superfly said:
    According to Ki’s 3-bet chart, QJs is mostly a 3 bet from BB vs LP open. The fact that V is loose and wide should make this even more so.

    Does extra caller in between mean we should tighten up and just call? Or does extra dead money encourage a 3 bet and squeeze? I lean towards the latter. Even though QJs plays well multi-way, doesn’t seem ideal to just call and play it vs two Vs OOP. I’d rather try and take it down pre and play vs one V if called. Wrong thinking or just a style difference?
    Not too much of a chart guy. I think it’s a style preference, and I like Dave Tuckman’s general philosophy of “keeping the pot smaller out of position and bigger in position”. I also don’t feel the need to isolate to one opponent. I guess my description is a bit misleading because while he is loose, but not terribly out of line. The raise to $25 did get my attention since the standard was $20, so I sensed his hand was stronger than usual. If I opted to squeeze, I’d prefer a slightly stronger hand.
  • Superfly Posts: 219Subscriber
    @bart, Would appreciate any thoughts you have on preflop decision. Charts say this is usually a 3bet vs CO opener. Does BTN caller in between encourage 3bet or cause us to tighten up and just call? Garland also noticed CO opener bet larger than normal, possibly indicating strength. Does this encourage flatting? Seems like close spot where either choice is ok, but any preferences?
  • Superfly Posts: 219Subscriber
    edited July 5
    @kilee, preflop 3bet or flat is another close one where I don’t know where to land. If you have time to provide input, would be appreciated. No worries if you’re busy.
  • KiLeeKiLee Posts: 252Pro
    @superfly, I can get on board with 3betting or flatting here. I think both plays are fine. The larger sizing does indicate some strength, and I want to clarify that I consider LP CO and BTN. HJ is more of MP. So I wouldn't look to 3B QJs here 100%. Depending on the particular villain we can lean one way or another. I think the turn lead is fine, and the river is a bet. AK gets there, but the V can have AQ or some tricky played KQ as well. QT should be well within his range as well as some fancy played AA/KK that checked the flop. River is an easy fold if we get raised.
Sign In or Register to comment.