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1/3 At Wynn

JABrewer Posts: 6Subscriber
Hand relayed from a friend.

“Last time at played at Wynn this hand came up. 1/3 we are $1200 effective. EP limp , CO (big Armenian guy, rec, fairly active...), 20, we 80 OTB with AA he calls . Flop QJ5r he leads 200! What’s your plan going forward here ? How do you view big leads like this when someone either limp calls and leads big after calling a 3b ? “

Comments

  • JABrewer Posts: 6Subscriber
    No comments?
  • jojacks Posts: 86Subscriber
    I have precisely zero experience playing 400 BB effective, and admittedly have some nit-like tendencies when others show aggression, but here's my take:

    My picture based on Villain description is someone who is too loose, but fairly passive unless he thinks he has the best hand (this could be a misinterpretation of 'active'). Combine that with the action of a nearly 7x open (may be standard if the game is deep, but I'm assuming it's large), a call of a 3! out of position, and a lead into the 3-better, I think he thinks his hand is very strong, and I am proceeding very cautiously.

    What hands could he have that he thinks are very strong? I don't think he has the last combo of AA, as I would expect him to 4! preflop nearly 100% of the time. I could see him flatting KK some of the time, as well as QQ and JJ. Not sure if he is raising 55 to $20, but if he is, what's $60 more to set mine with stacks this deep? I could also see some AQ, and maybe QJs if he would raise that. AA doesn't stack up too well against this range. I would likely call the $200 but be prepared to fold to a respectable turn bet.

    All of this is predicated on my interpretation of an "active" villain meaning he is involved in a lot of hands, but not super aggro and getting out of line frequently.

  • JLBJ Posts: 171Subscriber
    It’s far more likely he has AQ or KK than he has you beat. You are very deep. If you were only 600-700 effective, I’d say just raise and get it in.

    I’m never folding. The main question would be if you think this guy will fold a hand like AQ if you raise, thinking you must have AA or KK.
  • CycleV Posts: 1,102Subscriber
    IMO, the problem with commenting on this hand is that we have basically no read whatsoever from the OP/his friend. Eastern european, fairly active, OK sure gives us like 10% of what I want to know. "Fairly active" isn't nearly helpful enough. Raising pre, betting post, donkleading, c/r, or just calling all the time? Those are all active verbs, and how I'd play this hand will vary wildly based on which of those is correct.

    The first two replies disagree with each other, and I can't say if I agree or disagree with either. Against some V's I'd take the "not raising but never folding" line, against a select few I could possibly make a laydown on the turn, but others, even active ones, I'd disagree that "it's far more likely" we're ahead. As a thought exercise, he has 6 KK and 6 AQ for 12 hands, against 9 sets, two QJs, and an unknown number of QJo. But will he 4! pre some KK, trap with a set, lead with KQ, start a big bluff wth KTs/T9s, or monkey bet with pocket 7s or some such BS?

    This is why paying attention--and remembering--how smeone plays a hand is pretty dang important.
  • fozbo Posts: 111Subscriber
    Call flop, evaluate turn
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