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Choose your value bet: Part 5 Thin Value 1-liner redux

Garland Posts: 219Subscriber
Location: Matrix Casino in San Jose, CA
Stakes: $2/$3/$5, $600 max (Effective $665)

Newish to game. Mostly loose passive opponents.

Pre-flop ($10) - I open $20 in HJ with A A, Button, SB and BB all call.

Flop ($80 - 4 players) - K 6 5. xx $50, only SB calls

Turn ($180 - 2 players) - 3 xx ?

River ($180 - 2 players) - 4 x, I bet ???

I think pre-flop and flop are fairly standard. Turn and river are debatable.

Comments

  • neutron212neutron212 Posts: 13Subscriber
    I think the check on the turn is fine. With you holding two black aces you block most of the back door wheel draws and with the k on the board as well most of his flush draws are gone as well. So your only really worried about sets and two pairs and i feel he would have fired at the pot by now. Otr the only real worry is 78 so bet 1/3 on river and hope for a call. If the V goes for the max bet then crying call hoping for the best
  • Superfly Posts: 220Subscriber
    edited July 2
    Vs call from SB pre with 2 players yet to act seems more indicative of some kind of K high broadway to me. V checking turn and river makes this even more likely. I’d definitely bet after V checks the river. Say around $120.

    I could also see a bet on the turn with the nut FD to fall back on if you get reraised. But I think I like bet-check-bet line better. You may lose some value, but going for 3 streets of value on this wet low board seems like maybe a bit of an overplay. .

  • ds2uared Posts: 264Subscriber
    edited July 2
    I think I prefer squeezing in some value on the turn and checking back the river. Bet $80 on the turn and you'll get calls from most Kings, 77-TT with a, and some one- straight draws. But I think there are some scare cards now on the river that won't call a bet and some under flushes that will call only 1 avg. sized bet in a smaller pot if a club comes. I want the pot bigger when he checks a river with the Q, J, or T.

    When you check back this turn and bet the river for value, you'll get called by all the same hands except the draws, which you didn't get to charge on the turn.

    Versus mostly generic loose passive I lean toward just keep betting, just sizing up or down to target their tendencies, ranges, and inability to hand read.
  • CycleV Posts: 964Subscriber
    I see no reason to check the turn. He doesn't have a straight (well 99.5%), and even a passive player can recognize that's a board to c/r the flop with 2p+. So he likely has tp (a billion combos depending on how loose pre), some other kind of pair (though most will fold the turn, why let him have a free shot at improving?), or the flush, which isn't nearly as likely since the A and K are accounted for.

    Even the river, there just aren't all that many deuces or sevens he shows up with. I'm betting again, though smallish to get looked up by a K.
  • Superfly Posts: 220Subscriber
    @ds2uared, I think you’re missing that H has Ac. With both Ac and Kc accounted for, I don’t think SB has too many FDs here.

    To me key question is how to get max value from Kx while minimizing our exposure if we’re behind a set or 2P on turn. I doubt V calls three streets with Kx anyway, so b-c-b seems a safer strategy with similar returns to me.

    But I can see the merits of a turn bet too. @garland is maniacally good at finding tight spots for us to argue about.
  • Superfly Posts: 220Subscriber
    The turn would be interesting to run through a solver if anyone has one. You’d need to run it as heads up, but I don’t think that changes much.
  • Superfly Posts: 220Subscriber
    The turn would be interesting to run through a solver if anyone has one. You’d need to run it as heads up, but I don’t think that changes much.
  • ds2uared Posts: 264Subscriber
    @superfly
    Superfly said:
    @ds2uared, I think you’re missing that H has Ac. With both Ac and Kc accounted for, I don’t think SB has too many FDs here.
    That's actually why I size down. $80 to me is sizing down and getting calls from random K's and pair plus flush draws.



  • maphacks Posts: 1,999Subscriber
    edited July 2
    Bet around 2/3. Looks like Kx a fair bit.
  • maphacks Posts: 1,999Subscriber
    edited July 2
    Superfly said:
    The turn would be interesting to run through a solver if anyone has one. You’d need to run it as heads up, but I don’t think that changes much.
    Impossible and pointless TBH. 4ways with super random ranges you won't get a meaningful result (even though snowie could do it).

    I am obviously not 100% sure but I believe that 4ways and headsup will DRASTICALLY change flop strategy for all players and consequently the turnplay as well.

    IMO these multiway spots are super exploitiv. Just think about peoples flatting ranges. Extremly unbalanced and this imbalance inflates with every action. River is the worst.
  • Superfly Posts: 220Subscriber
    @maphacks, I’d be interested to get a better understanding of what you mean when you say calling ranges tend to be very unbalanced in multi-way pots. Do you mean people call wider? Or that they tighten up and only call with stronger value?

    In this case I think it narrows the ranges. H is less likely to cbet flop with nothing in four-way pot. SB is less likely to call light with BB yet to act behind. But since BB already checked once, probably does not effect SB calling range that much? So I think we could come up with some pretty reasonable ranges for H and V on the turn.

    Would appreciate some further explanation if I’m missing the point.

  • Garland Posts: 219Subscriber
    edited July 5
    Appreciate all the comments. Part of the reason I checked the turn was I wanted to get value from hands that might otherwise fold, like KJ w/o a for example. Conversely, by checking back I just give infinite odds to draw out on me. I probably lean a bit more on the bet turn camp now, but don’t mind checking back against tricky players or players who tend to bluff or overbet rivers. I don’t really like the line of thought of having a backup plan of the nut flush draw if check-raised on turn because it’s very likely I only have 7 outs and hardly ever given the right odds (implied or otherwise) if check-raised properly.

    River: As played, betting 2/3 pot or $120 seems excessive to me unless I’m viewed as a guy who bluffs a lot, which I’m not. I want to cast a wider net and get called by more worse hands like underpairs to K or 6x if possible.

    Spoiler:

    Bet $70 and got called. I say “one pair” and proudly turn over my hand. SB takes a good 20 seconds to examine my hand and then turns over 6 4 . Have to value own yourself from time to time.
  • maphacks Posts: 1,999Subscriber
    Superfly said:
    @maphacks, I’d be interested to get a better understanding of what you mean when you say calling ranges tend to be very unbalanced in multi-way pots. Do you mean people call wider? Or that they tighten up and only call with stronger value?

    In this case I think it narrows the ranges. H is less likely to cbet flop with nothing in four-way pot. SB is less likely to call light with BB yet to act behind. But since BB already checked once, probably does not effect SB calling range that much? So I think we could come up with some pretty reasonable ranges for H and V on the turn.

    Would appreciate some further explanation if I’m missing the point.

    I think flatting ranges in live poker are WAY too weak/wide. that's why there are so many multiway pots in live poker compared to online.

    once the spot gets multiway, postflop play should be very very different to what any solver/GTO solution would look like for headsup. firstly because it's multiway and secondly because ranges are way weaker than GTO would suggest (multiway GTO solutions do exist but are not that accurate since it depends a lot on the inputs that you are allow the solver to use and also take a very very long time to solve).

    so basically nobody even has a slight idea what GTO would look like in a live setting with very unbalanced ranges and whenever this is the case, ppl tend to mostly go in the direction of having way too much value when it comes to betting and calling way too wide when defending , not understanding the dynamic of multiway spots.


    this leads me to believe that playing super exploitive is the way to go. and obviously the fact that I have no clue what GTO would look like (and don't tell me anyone has ;) ).

  • Superfly Posts: 220Subscriber
    @maphacks, the reveal supports your point about wide weak ranges. I still find exploring balanced strategy useful, in part because I play more 5-10-20 where more players are familiar with GTO principles and use them in their play.

    @garland, you make a good point about not having the odds to call a checkraise AI on the turn. This provides support for checking back the turn so you don’t get blown off your nut equity, no? I’m torn after reading all the comments. I can see reasons for both bet (folding) and checking back turn, and not sure which is better. Once you check the turn, I think you can get more value from Kx than $70. Maybe not $120. But $100 at least.

    @bart, @kilee, @dpbuck. What do you guys think about the turn?

  • KiLeeKiLee Posts: 252Pro
    I think I like betting here. I think the villain will call with a KX a ton, and he can have a hand like KxJc/KxTc. And I think XRAI is going to be pretty rare. The possibility of getting shut out of equity is pretty low compared to the value we can extract on the turn. And there is a big chance that he will check-call again on the turn with even some flushes and sets, which allows to realize our equity pretty cheap. Even if we get XRed, if it's not an all-in, we can call IP play river perfectly. In order to maximize the villain's leak of having too wide of a range, betting the turn seems good.
  • Superfly Posts: 220Subscriber
    @kilee. Thx!
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